Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[The Other Castro]

Maybe The Donald will sit out the CNN debate after they refuse to pay to the charities he likes, creating a spot for Fiorina.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.

[Likely Voter]

I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.

Well it wasn't listed on their original list of approved polling companies, so apparently not. But as you noted, it does use a different methodology, both in terms of the pool of respondents but also how they don't push undecideds. So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Call me a conspiracy nut, but part of me believes CNN actually doesn't want Fiorina at the debate, yes I know the rules were established pre-Fiorina's bump, but why not lax the rules some, it shouldn't be fair to use polls from July to gauge the race and debate in SEPTEMBER.

[SteveRogers]

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That seems unlikely. Fox changed their rules for the kiddie table debate like a week beforehand.

I don't know why CNN would be conspiring against Fiorina. They can't really still be in love with Christie can they?

[Likely Voter]

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That seems unlikely. Fox changed their rules for the kiddie table debate like a week beforehand.

I don't know why CNN would be conspiring against Fiorina. They can't really still be in love with Christie can they?

The change to the Fox debate made the kiddie table more inclusive. Fiorina is asking for a change that would exclude another candidate (likely Christie) from the main debate. That would show bias and surely generate an official FEC complaint from the Christie campaign.

I doubt CNN cares who gets the 10th spot. It won't effect the ratings

[The Other Castro]

In case anyone is wondering about the specifics, the qualifying polls are: ABC/The Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS/The New York Times, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Marist, McClatchy, Monmouth University, NBC/The Wall Street Journal, Pew, Quinnipiac, USA Today, and Time.

Since July 16th, we've had:
FOX - July 16th
ABC/WashPo
CNN
Quinnipiac
NBC/WSJ
CBS
Bloomberg
Monmouth
FOX
FOX
CNN - August 18th

[bagelman]

Fiorina still has a chance even if she doesn't make it to the top 10 just yet, she just needs another strong showing at the kid's table and she should be able to overpower Christie and possibly Paul.

[Senator Cris]

New Quinnipiac poll: Kasich/Fiorina 5, Christie 4, Paul 2
New average: Paul 5.1%, Kasich 3.4%, Christie 3.3%, Fiorina 1.9%

In the post-debate polls, Fiorina is leading Christie by an average of 1.7%.

She needs 10 polls and an average lead of 1.7% to tie with Christie.
She needs 9 polls and an average lead of 1.9% to tie with Christie.
She needs 8 polls and an average lead of 2.1% to tie with Christie.
She needs 7 polls and an average lead of 2.4% to tie with Christie.
She needs 6 polls and an average lead of 2.8% to tie with Christie.
She needs 5 polls and an average lead of 3.4% to tie with Christie.

As of now, she leads Christie by 1.7%. That means she needs 10 polls.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new Quinnipiac poll

Nothing much has changed except Rubio has squeaked past Huck for 6th place. Even though Fiorina is ranked 7th in the post debate polls her pre-debate polls are weighing her down so much that she is still ranked 12th behind Perry.

CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 12 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 3)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.8
2   Bush    12.0
3   Walker    10.3
4   Carson    7.3
5   Cruz    6.1
6   Rubio    5.9 ↑
7   Huckabee    5.8 ↓
8   Paul    5.1
9   Kasich    3.4
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.0
12   Fiorina    1.9
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Jindal    1.1
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3

======NOT YET QUALIFIED*=======

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank
* CNN requires avg of 1% in 3 polls to qualify

[Mr. Morden]

So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 

HuffPo actually did add it just within the last couple of hours.

[Likely Voter]

For the record, here is the post-debate avg (3 polls: Fox, CNN, Quinni)

1   Trump   25.7
2   Carson    11.0
3   Bush    9.7
4   Cruz    7.3
5   Walker    6.7
6   Rubio    6.3
7   Fiorina    5.0
8   Kasich    4.7
9   Huckabee    4.3
10   Paul    3.7
11   Christie    3.3
12   Perry    1.3
13   Santorum    1.0
14   Jindal    0.3
15   Pataki   0.3
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0

[Mr. Morden]

The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?

[Likely Voter]

The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?

yes, but there is still a good amount of time. Not sure what he can do to get a mention in the news though. He should have done something dramatic during his time at the Iowa State Fair, or maybe even carved off a slice of the Butter Cow and spread it on some toast.

[Slander and/or Libel]

So post-debate, it's 13 people (not counting Graham and Gilmore, who both have zero) fighting for just over 50% of the vote. It seems insane to have a cutoff at all.

[The Other Castro]

In the final two weeks before the Fox polling cutoff, there were 7 qualifying polls. That should give us a rough idea of what to expect. Gilmore needs at least 1% in two of those to be invited.

[Likely Voter]

In the final two weeks before the Fox polling cutoff, there were 7 qualifying polls. That should give us a rough idea of what to expect. Gilmore needs at least 1% in two of those to be invited.

I seriously doubt we will see 7 new polls in the next two weeks. With the FOX debate only the final 5 were included and so a lot of pollsters rushed out at the end to be part of the average. This time everyone gets in so no rush. Plus you have Labor Day weekend where polling companies dont tend to run polls. I think there may be more like 3 or 4 more polls.

So far the only one we know for sure is Monmouth coming out next week. Politico also reports that it is unlikely NBC will have one out before the CNN debate.

[mencken]

Would an eleventh podium truly be an unreasonable proposition? Perry, Jindal, Santorum, Graham, Pataki, and Gilmore can object when they have a poll showing them in fourth place in polling averages for both early primaries.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

In my opinion, its unfair that she most likely will be excluded from the main debate even though recent polling has her in 4th or 5th place nationally and shes been in that spot for a bit of time now. Does anyone know what it would take to get Fiorina on the main debate ?

[ElectionsGuy]

Lots of polls. At this point, its more important that more and more polls come out to balance the pre-debate polls, rather than her scoring higher, because she's consistently in the top 5 or 6 now.

[DrScholl]

Walking on stage uninvited.

[Likely Voter]

It is a function of number of new polls and her margin above Christie. She has averaged around 2 points better than Christie in post-debate polls, if that keeps up she would need nine new polls to be released (one per day until deadline). That is very unlikely. There will be at least one (Monmouth this week) and maybe a couple others but Labor Day weekend precludes a rush at the end.

Fiorina not making it in isn't something malicious on the part of the RNC or CNN. I think CNN simply miscalculated when they made their original formula. They decided that spreading the average out over 8 weeks smoothed things out avoiding flashes in the pan, and by having 3 weeks of polls pre-Fox debate and 5 weeks of polls post-Fox debate they weighted the average to post-debate polls. They simply didn't anticipate that there would be a bunch of polls right before the FOX debate and not many polls after it. But they arent about to admit that and so they are sticking to their original formula and noting that changes would be deemed violations of FEC rules.

So Fiorina likely gets screwed and Christie catches a lucky break. But if the CNBC debate in October also has a 'top 10' debate, Christie is much less likely to make that one, although if Paul continues to drop into the 2-3% range, then Christie may luck out and squeak into that one as well.

[King]

CNN should either modify the criteria have a debate with 11 people. It makes no sense not to invite her.

[Mr. Morden]

So Fiorina likely gets screwed and Christie catches a lucky break. But if the CNBC debate in October also has a 'top 10' debate, Christie is much less likely to make that one, although if Paul continues to drop into the 2-3% range, then Christie may luck out and squeak into that one as well.

Paul has until Sept. 18th (two days after the CNN debate) to put up the money for the Kentucky caucuses, or else they're cancelled (in which case he'll have to make up his mind re: Senate or Presidential race).  Not saying it'll happen, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Paul fails to deliver the money, and drops out of the presidential race shortly thereafter.

[SteveRogers]

I'd be curious to see what FEC rule CNN is citing to claim that their hands are tied.