Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Senator Cris]

As you know, in this case the average is the sum of the candidates's percentages divided by the number of polls.

As of now, these are the numbers of the sum of the candidates's percentages:

Trump 196
Bush    115
Walker 104
Huckabee 56
Carson 55
Rubio 52
Cruz 51
Paul 50
Christie 30
Kasich 27
Perry 20
Santorum   13
Jindal 12
Fiorina 8
Graham 4
Pataki 4
Gilmore 1

Now, we are in week 4 (exactly 1 month before the deadline). Considered that there were 9 polls in the previous 4 weeks, I'm assuming there will be 9 polls in the next 4 weeks.
To get invited to the debate, Fiorina needs to lead Kasich by an average of 2.11% [19 (the difference between Kasich and Fiorina) divided by 9] or Christie by an average of 2.44% [22 divided by 9]. It's more difficult to kick out Paul, as she needs to lead him by an average of 4.67% [42 divided by 9] in the next polls.

[Senator Cris]

New FOX News poll: Fiorina 5, Kasich 4, Christie and Paul 3.

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%
in order to tie with one of these candidates. If there will be a tie, other criteria will be used to determine who gets the 10th spot.

[Senator Cris]

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%

Yep.  And in the new Fox poll, she's only leading Kasich by 1 and Christie by 2.  So it's very possible that she doesn't make it.

And I'm assuming that there will be 8 polls. There could be fewer polls and with fewer polls, it would be hardest for Fiorina.

[Senator Cris]

New CNN/ORC poll: Fiorina and Kasich 5, Christie 3.
Assuming that there will be 7 polls, Fiorina needs to lead Kasich or Christie by 2.57%


Better version: http://s10.postimg.org/a45ces1u1/Debate_Average.png

[Senator Cris]

New Quinnipiac poll: Kasich/Fiorina 5, Christie 4, Paul 2
New average: Paul 5.1%, Kasich 3.4%, Christie 3.3%, Fiorina 1.9%

In the post-debate polls, Fiorina is leading Christie by an average of 1.7%.

She needs 10 polls and an average lead of 1.7% to tie with Christie.
She needs 9 polls and an average lead of 1.9% to tie with Christie.
She needs 8 polls and an average lead of 2.1% to tie with Christie.
She needs 7 polls and an average lead of 2.4% to tie with Christie.
She needs 6 polls and an average lead of 2.8% to tie with Christie.
She needs 5 polls and an average lead of 3.4% to tie with Christie.

As of now, she leads Christie by 1.7%. That means she needs 10 polls.