Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Mr. Morden]

I suppose it's *possible* that Fiorina starts getting ~5% in the polls, since she's getting amazingly good media coverage at the moment.  That might be a stretch though.  And Kasich might fade, as his announcement bump tapers off.  So I could potentially see Kasich losing his spot to either Perry or Fiorina, but doubt there will be any other changes.

One thing that might help Kasich would be if he were to actually start coming in 2nd place in "real" NH polls (not Gravis).  I guess that might give him some positive national media coverage, which would help him at least stay at 3%.

[Mr. Morden]

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.

Could there even be strategic debate skipping, to knock other candidates out of the main debate?  Let's say two 2nd tier candidates drop out within the next month, so the field is down to 15.  If Christie is knocked down to the JV debate, and decide to skip it, then you've only got 14.  So does CNN then use the option you mentioned in the OP, to reduce the 1st tier debate to just 8 candidates?  Thus by skipping, Christie prevents the 9th and 10th place candidates from getting primetime coverage?

[Mr. Morden]

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.

It might depend in part on whether there are any more kiddie debates after September.  We know that CNN will have one in September, but will the networks bother doing it in October and beyond?  Possibly not.  If you can't break into the top 10, and you can't get any more cable news airtime to promote your issues or feed your ego, because the networks won't even give you a kiddie debate to play in anymore, what's the point?

[Mr. Morden]

At least based on the very early post-debate polls we've seen (which are not live interview and won't count, but which presumably reflect what'll happen in the live interview polls), Fiorina looks like a strong bet to make it to the big boy debate, while every other Fox kiddie table candidate will be left out again.

So who will be knocked out if Fiorina is in?

Paul is struggling in recent polls, but he's probably far enough ahead in the existing polls they're including that he'll make it in.  I guess either Christie or Kasich will be relegated to the kiddie table, but I'm not sure which.  Christie and Kasich tied in the new Rasmussen poll, for example.  It could be a tight race between them to qualify.

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%

Yep.  And in the new Fox poll, she's only leading Kasich by 1 and Christie by 2.  So it's very possible that she doesn't make it.

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that there will be 7 polls, Fiorina needs to lead both Kasich and Christie by 2.57%

Or more precisely, she needs to lead one or the other by that amount.  She doesn't need to beat both of them to make it into the next big kids debate.

[Mr. Morden]

And I guess we still don't know what criteria CNBC will use for their debate in October?  (Nor how many participants, for that matter.)  If the CNN debate is the last one to include a "second tier" debate, then we might see some dropouts in the near future.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.

[Mr. Morden]

So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 

HuffPo actually did add it just within the last couple of hours.

[Mr. Morden]

The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?

[Mr. Morden]

So Fiorina likely gets screwed and Christie catches a lucky break. But if the CNBC debate in October also has a 'top 10' debate, Christie is much less likely to make that one, although if Paul continues to drop into the 2-3% range, then Christie may luck out and squeak into that one as well.

Paul has until Sept. 18th (two days after the CNN debate) to put up the money for the Kentucky caucuses, or else they're cancelled (in which case he'll have to make up his mind re: Senate or Presidential race).  Not saying it'll happen, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Paul fails to deliver the money, and drops out of the presidential race shortly thereafter.

[Mr. Morden]

Are they thinking of changing the rules?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/cnn-unveil-changes-criteria-next-gop-debate/

Looks like it, yes.  They're holding a conference call with the candidates' campaigns right now.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, so we potentially have Fiorina joining the grownups debate to make it 11, and potentially Gilmore failing to qualify for even the kiddie table.  That would leave just 5 candidates at the kiddie table.  What happens if Perry, or another kiddie table participant, ends up dropping out within the next two weeks?  They go ahead with the kiddie debate with only 4 candidates?

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

So isn't today the last day for polling that'll count towards debate inclusion?

If so, then aren't we locked into?:

"adult debate": the Fox 10 + Fiorina
"kiddie debate": Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Perry, Santorum

Gilmore doesn't qualify, and will have to watch from home?

[Mr. Morden]

So this is coming up in just a week.  Has CNN released any details about whether the format will be the same as the Fox debate, who'll be doing the questioning, whether the happy hour debate will again have no audience, etc.?

[Mr. Morden]

So will this be the last one to include a "happy hour" debate for the 2nd tier candidates?  Is CNBC really going to bother doing two debates on the same night as well?

[Mr. Morden]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

That looks so sad

You think that's sad?  Here's the lineup for the 3rd tier candidate debate, which won't even be televised, and will take place at Jim Gilmore's house:

[Mr. Morden]

I assume they'll just cut the kiddie debate a bit short, so that the speaking time per candidate is not greater than the grown up debate.  They can allocate the extra time to talking head commentary and more commercials.

If Perry had dropped out weeks ago, then they might have come up with another solution.  But given the timing of this, and how they've already announced the lineup, I'm guessing they'll just go with the above solution.