Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.

Christie was in the main debate....

The other 3 could be out soon though, along with Jindal and Gilmore. Santorum will probably stay in through Iowa.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is CNN using multiple polls from a single source?

Yes.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's been amazing to watch CNN go from "You knew this was the criteria, you can't just freak out because it doesn't meet your every demand" to "We can't change it because lawsuits/we already elected to buy only 10 podiums" to "Okay, we'll talk"

Best of luck to Fiorina.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, does that mean that Fiorina is in the debate now?

As long as she remains in the top ten in the average of CNN approved polls taken after the Fox debate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

So if she stays in the top 10, we'll have 11 people at the main debate and 5 (or 6) at the kiddie table debate?

Yep. Not sure yet if Gilmore is invited to the kiddie debate.

He needs 1% in 2 more CNN approved national polls.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

What, Gilmore didn't make it?

You have to get 1% in 3 different polls to be allowed to debate at all. Gilmore only got 1% in a single poll.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

From CNN's debate criteria:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf

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With Perry out and Gilmore not qualifying, that leaves 15 candidates, more than what they specify above. But presumably, the intention of the above proviso was to prevent an imbalance where the Grown-Up Debate has 10 candidates while the Kids Table Debate only has 4. With Fiorina added to the Grown Up Debate the imbalance is even starker and to be true to their intention, CNN could justify moving Kasich and Christie (who fall short of the Top 8 using either the original or the revised-for-Fiorina criteria) to the Kids Debate. In fact, if I were Jeff Zucker, I would so do in order to cause controversy that generates publicity for both debates.

If they go against their stated criteria in a way that hurts candidates, it's lawsuit time. Yeah, given the timing, CNN would probably be able to reach a monetary settlement rather than actual debate inclusion, but still.