Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Likely Voter]

UPDATE Sept. 1
CNN has essentially added a 'bonus podium' to the debate. Here is the updated rule...
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/index.html

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So as of now that means that Fiorina would join the same 10 at the FOX debate. However, if she performs very poorly in polls released between now and the 10th she could lose that bonus podium.

original post

The next GOP debate will be on CNN on Sept. 16. Just like with FOX they will break it up into a primetime debate with 10 candidates and an early debate with the rest. The 10 are also determined by an average of the live phone polls, however instead of a rolling average of the last five (as done by FOX) it will be all the polls released over the 8 weeks before September 10th. We are now in week 3 of that 8 week period and there have already been nine polls released during that time. That means everyone has already banked a good percentage of what will factor into their final percentage (I will expand on this in a second post).

CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 9 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 0)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    21.8
2   Bush    12.8
3   Walker    11.6
4   Huckabee    6.2
5   Carson    6.1
6   Rubio    5.8
7   Cruz    5.7
8   Paul    5.6
9   Christie    3.3
10   Kasich    3.0

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.2
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Jindal    1.3
14   Fiorina    0.9
15   Graham    0.4
16   Pataki   0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

RE: Early Debate
There are also some differences here. Firstly there is a tie-breaker for 10th place (using average of polls from last two weeks and average of early state polls) so 11th place is certain to be in the early debate. Also there is a minimum threshold of needing to average 1% in 3 polls. So for Gilmore has only got 1% in one poll.  Lastly, CNN says that if by the time of the debate there are only 14 or less qualifying candidates they may break the debate up to have the top 8 in the primetime debate, so the likes of Christie and Kasich better hope that there aren't more than one drop out in the next few weeks.

[Likely Voter]

Why the CNN Debate May look a lot like the FOX debate, maybe even exactly the same.

If we assume that we continue to average 3 polls per week (which is actually high), then there would be 15 new polls before the CNN cutoff. And if we assume that you need 3% or more to make the debate (something that has held true for the last 3 months monitoring the FOX debate), then certain things about the CNN debate become clear.

1. Three candidates have already qualified for the CNN debate
Trump, Bush and Walker have already qualified, even if they scored 0% in every poll between now and the cutoff.

2. Five candidates are almost sure to qualify
Huckabee, Carson, Rubio, Cruz and Paul all just have to average 1% to 1.5% in the post FOX debate polls to get a spot in the CNN debate.

3. Three candidates are on the bubble
Christie and Kasich have to stay where they are or improve to keep their spots and if Perry can start averaging around 4% he could knoock one of them out.

4. The rest need to overperform to make it in
Because of starting off with such low poll numbers, the rest of the seven who were at the early Fox debate need to double, triple or more their current polling numbers to make it in. In general most need to be polling in the 4-5% range to be sure to make it.

EXAMPLE:
Let's say that in 15 polls between now and the CNN debate Fiorina averages 4%, Kasich and Christie average 3%, Rubio, Huckabee, Cruz and Paul all average 2% and Carson Averages 1%. In that scenario the only one who doesn't get into the CNN debate would be Carly. It is simple math.

[Likely Voter]

I'm surprised that the CNN requirements seem to be harsher than the FOX requirements (e.g. 1% threshold, etc.), but as time goes by I guess they do need to start making the requirements stricter in order to actually whittle down the field.

But yeah, all indicators seem to imply that Gilmore won't even have a seat at the kiddy table.

Actually FOX's original requirements were harsher. They required a 1% average over the last 5 polls. Based on that requirement, Pataki, Graham and Gilmore would not have been invited and it would have only had 4 people. And there were times that only 3 qualified. But last week FOX realized this and dropped the requirement down to simply being included in polls with no required minimum.

[Likely Voter]

Obviously the NBC online poll wont count to the CNN average but if live phone polls come out with the same results then Fiorina would certainly make her way into the top 10, likely knocking out Christie (if he continues to underperform Kasich).

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.

[Likely Voter]

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.

Could there even be strategic debate skipping, to knock other candidates out of the main debate?  Let's say two 2nd tier candidates drop out within the next month, so the field is down to 15.  If Christie is knocked down to the JV debate, and decide to skip it, then you've only got 14.  So does CNN then use the option you mentioned in the OP, to reduce the 1st tier debate to just 8 candidates?  Thus by skipping, Christie prevents the 9th and 10th place candidates from getting primetime coverage?

I thought of that and it is possible. However, I think CNN would worry about a backlash. Let's say that Fiorina continues to poll in the 5-7% range all August and early September, which would put her in the middle of the pack in post-Fox debate polls, but overall CNN averaging would placer her in 9th or 10th place. So if there were two dropouts (from the campaign or even just the debate) then CNN would be faced with the decision of holding a Top 10 with Fiorina leaving only 4 for the JV debate or a Top 8, moving her into a six person JV debate. I think many would see that as arbitrary and unfair to Fiorina.

So it would be very risky for someone like Christie to skip the JV debate if the reason was just to kick Fiorina out of the Top 10. It is quite possible CNN wont exercise their option to change the primetime debate to a Top 8

[Likely Voter]

Actually most of the Santorum staffers who left went to work for a new Santorum Super PAC. That is the new reality we live in. Campaigns usually die when they run out of money but this cycle allows them to live on via Super PACs, where money is easier to get. And in a way the second tier debates help these campaigns at least get some exposure. In years past they would just be shut out due to low polling and end due to low fundraising. 2016 is the cycle of the zombie campaign.

[Likely Voter]

The debate is being held at the Reagan library and Nancy Reagan along with CNN today officially invited 16 candidates (everyone but Gilmore). Although apparently Gilmore can make it in if he can just get to 1% in some more polls. CNN also had some details on the format....

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http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/11/politics/cnn-debate-nancy-reagan-invitations/index.html

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new FOX poll

Carson, Cruz and Fiorina all bumped up one position. But Fiorina needs to do better than 5% in future polls if she wants to be sure to make it into the prime time debate.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 10 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 1)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.1
2   Bush    12.4
3   Walker    11.0
4   Carson    6.7 ↑
5   Huckabee    6.2 ↓
6   Cruz    6.1 ↑
7   Rubio    5.6 ↓
8   Paul    5.3
9   Christie    3.3
10   Kasich    3.1

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Fiorina    1.3 ↑
14   Jindal    1.3 ↓
15   Pataki   0.5 ↑
16   Graham    0.4 ↓

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

Could Graham move down to disqualified?

no. Once you avg 1%+ in 3 polls you are in, Graham and Pataki and the rest all have met this criteria already. Gilmore has hit 1% only once. Two more 1% results (or one 2%) and Gilmore will qualify.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new CNN poll

Cruz now tied with Huck for the 5th spot, Kasich and Christie now tied for the last two spots. Fiorina moves past Santorum, but still trails Perry. Fiorina averaging 5% in post-debate polls but needs to do better than that to pass Christie or Kasich.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 11 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 2)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.3
2   Bush    12.5
3   Walker    10.7
4   Carson    6.9
5   Cruz    6.0 ↑
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Rubio    5.8
8   Paul    5.4
9   Kasich    3.3 ↑
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Fiorina    1.6 ↑
13   Santorum    1.4  ↓
14   Jindal    1.2
15   Pataki   0.5
16   Graham    0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

1 CNN has a minimum requirement of getting a 1% avg in 3 polls. Gilmore has only got 1% in 1 poll.
2. CNN said if there are 14 or fewer total qualified candidates they may limit primetime debate to 8
3 The JV debate will immediately preceed the primetime debate with no time gap.

[Likely Voter]

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

1 CNN has a minimum requirement of getting a 1% avg in 3 polls. Gilmore has only got 1% in 1 poll.
2. CNN said if there are 14 or fewer total qualified candidates they may limit primetime debate to 8
3 The JV debate will immediately preceed the primetime debate with no time gap.

If we end up in a situation where no poll taken after the last debate has Graham above 0, it'll be hard for CNN to justify keeping Gilmore out while Graham's on based on an ancient poll.

Again the rule is averaging 1%+ in three polls. Graham actually has four polls with 1% (all pre-debate), Pataki has five (4 pre, 1 post). Gilmore still has time to get two more polls so maybe he will make it, but I seriously doubt there will be much of a fuss over Gilmore. CNN has already sent invites to everyone but Gilmore and no one made a peep.

I think CNN is facing a much bigger issue with regards to Fiorina. It is quite possible that come the day of the debate people will look at the RCP average and see her ranked 7th or 8th and yet she wont be on the stage for the main debate. With the FOX debate while there was a bit of hemming and hawing, people recognized that there was a battle for 10th bettween Perry and Kasich and Kasich successfully made it with an announcement bump. The RCP average pretty much matched the Fox avg.  So far the media has yet to catch on to how weird the CNN rules are with using polls from before the Fox debate. You can be sure that in early September there is going to be some pushback if Fiorina continues to perform well and yet doesn't make the cut.

Another issue may come up with regards to podium position. If they use the overall average it is quite possible that even though he may rank 5th in post debate polls, Scott Walker will keep his 3rd place spot (right next to Trump), when Ben Carson could be the real 3rd place guy.

[Likely Voter]

Turns out at least some in the media have noticed. Politico has a story on Fiorina's challenge to get into the varsity CNN debate, which notes...

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They also add this note...

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If there are 7 polls and if Christie continues to poll at 3%, then Fiorina will need to average 6% to knock him out.

[Likely Voter]

Any chance CNN changes their rules to shorten the time-frame of poll inclusion (get rid of all pre-debate polls)? Only Christie and Kasich would probably care, and it would probably not look as bad as keeping an obviously higher than 11th place candidate out of the debate.

Hard to say but I kind of doubt it. If they changed the rules and essentially swapped out Christie for Fiorina it would look like favoritism. It could even be a possible FEC violation.

But some others are noticing the issue. The Hill has an article up: CNN criteria threaten Fiorina’s chance at main debate stage

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The article notes that CNN "declined to comment on its criteria and their potential impact on the field"

We are now coming to the end of week five of CNN's eight week window for polls in their average. Fiorina really needs the pace of new polls to pick up in the next 3 weeks. She is really at the mercy of the pollsters.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe she could pay for one or two new polls herself? I doubt that the big media firms would have very much against that. Most newspapers hardly feel they can afford polls these days anyways.

I dont see how that would be possible. Most of the polls CNN would include are from media outlets, who clearly could not take a payment from a campaign. The rest are university polls, and I still think there would be a conflict of interest if she offered to pay.

That being said, Fiorina is now explicitly fundraising with a pitch to help her get on the main stage. So it is possible that her campaign (and Super PAC) will be spending some money on paid media to boost her numbers in the polls that do come out.

Christie's campaign has also said they are going to start some advertising to boost his numbers in an effort to keep him on the stage and if Kasich's numbers start slipping, I bet his Super PAC would also do some national advertising.  If it comes down to an ad war for 10th place, one campaign could end up blowing their cash and still end up in 11th, and that campaign may fold.

[Likely Voter]

Honestly, CNN is outdoing FOX when it comes to stupidity here. Including ancient pre-debate polls seems completely ridiculous.

538 has now caught on to the CNN criteria issue with an article What Carly Fiorina Needs To Make CNN’s Main Stage Debate. They discuss argument for including older polls...

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They also conclude that Fiorina may not make it...

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[Likely Voter]

And the backlash begins...The Hill: Fiorina supporters slam 'ludicrous' CNN debate methodology

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CNN is still not giving any comment, and for now Fiorina's campaign has not officially come out against CNN's criteria. They are probably waiting to see how things go with the release of new polls but it has been 17 days since the Fox debate and there have only been 2 (live phone) polls released. There are 18 days until the cutoff and she needs ~8 new polls to get her a spot (depending on how well she performs vs. Kasich and Christie), so it isn't looking good for now.

[Likely Voter]

The Fiorina campaign has now officially started calling foul for CNN using so many pre-debate polls in their average. This morning on Morning Joe, Fiorina said:

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Then her campaign posted an attack on CNN and the RNC which includes this:

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The Fiorina campaign offers a solution, notably to weight the post-debate polls differently.

Politico reports that before going public the campaign tried to convince CNN and RNC to change the rules but they were rebuffed. CNN also made it clear they arent changing the rules...

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Politico also reports there is a new Quinnipiac is coming out tomorrow and Monmouth has one coming out next week but that the labor day weekend will preclude a 'flood of new polls' right before the CNN cutoff (like what was seen for the Fox poll). They specifically reported that NBC is unlikely to have a new poll.

So as of now, it is not looking good for Carly.

[Likely Voter]

I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.

Well it wasn't listed on their original list of approved polling companies, so apparently not. But as you noted, it does use a different methodology, both in terms of the pool of respondents but also how they don't push undecideds. So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 

[Likely Voter]

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That seems unlikely. Fox changed their rules for the kiddie table debate like a week beforehand.

I don't know why CNN would be conspiring against Fiorina. They can't really still be in love with Christie can they?

The change to the Fox debate made the kiddie table more inclusive. Fiorina is asking for a change that would exclude another candidate (likely Christie) from the main debate. That would show bias and surely generate an official FEC complaint from the Christie campaign.

I doubt CNN cares who gets the 10th spot. It won't effect the ratings

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new Quinnipiac poll

Nothing much has changed except Rubio has squeaked past Huck for 6th place. Even though Fiorina is ranked 7th in the post debate polls her pre-debate polls are weighing her down so much that she is still ranked 12th behind Perry.

CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 12 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 3)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.8
2   Bush    12.0
3   Walker    10.3
4   Carson    7.3
5   Cruz    6.1
6   Rubio    5.9 ↑
7   Huckabee    5.8 ↓
8   Paul    5.1
9   Kasich    3.4
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.0
12   Fiorina    1.9
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Jindal    1.1
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3

======NOT YET QUALIFIED*=======

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank
* CNN requires avg of 1% in 3 polls to qualify

[Likely Voter]

For the record, here is the post-debate avg (3 polls: Fox, CNN, Quinni)

1   Trump   25.7
2   Carson    11.0
3   Bush    9.7
4   Cruz    7.3
5   Walker    6.7
6   Rubio    6.3
7   Fiorina    5.0
8   Kasich    4.7
9   Huckabee    4.3
10   Paul    3.7
11   Christie    3.3
12   Perry    1.3
13   Santorum    1.0
14   Jindal    0.3
15   Pataki   0.3
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0

[Likely Voter]

The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?

yes, but there is still a good amount of time. Not sure what he can do to get a mention in the news though. He should have done something dramatic during his time at the Iowa State Fair, or maybe even carved off a slice of the Butter Cow and spread it on some toast.

[Likely Voter]

In the final two weeks before the Fox polling cutoff, there were 7 qualifying polls. That should give us a rough idea of what to expect. Gilmore needs at least 1% in two of those to be invited.

I seriously doubt we will see 7 new polls in the next two weeks. With the FOX debate only the final 5 were included and so a lot of pollsters rushed out at the end to be part of the average. This time everyone gets in so no rush. Plus you have Labor Day weekend where polling companies dont tend to run polls. I think there may be more like 3 or 4 more polls.

So far the only one we know for sure is Monmouth coming out next week. Politico also reports that it is unlikely NBC will have one out before the CNN debate.

[Likely Voter]

It is a function of number of new polls and her margin above Christie. She has averaged around 2 points better than Christie in post-debate polls, if that keeps up she would need nine new polls to be released (one per day until deadline). That is very unlikely. There will be at least one (Monmouth this week) and maybe a couple others but Labor Day weekend precludes a rush at the end.

Fiorina not making it in isn't something malicious on the part of the RNC or CNN. I think CNN simply miscalculated when they made their original formula. They decided that spreading the average out over 8 weeks smoothed things out avoiding flashes in the pan, and by having 3 weeks of polls pre-Fox debate and 5 weeks of polls post-Fox debate they weighted the average to post-debate polls. They simply didn't anticipate that there would be a bunch of polls right before the FOX debate and not many polls after it. But they arent about to admit that and so they are sticking to their original formula and noting that changes would be deemed violations of FEC rules.

So Fiorina likely gets screwed and Christie catches a lucky break. But if the CNBC debate in October also has a 'top 10' debate, Christie is much less likely to make that one, although if Paul continues to drop into the 2-3% range, then Christie may luck out and squeak into that one as well.