Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Bull Moose Base]

here comes Trump vs Fiorina…

Post-Debate Poll (NBC)
Trump 23%
Cruz 13%
Carson 11%
Fiorina 8%
Rubio 8%
Bush 7%
Walker 7%

Also, only 1 of top 4 with government experience? Ted Cruz.

Also, Bush + Walker + Rubio < Trump. And < Cruz + Carson.

[Bull Moose Base]

Updated with new CNN poll

Cruz now tied with Huck for the 5th spot, Kasich and Christie now tied for the last two spots. Fiorina moves past Santorum, but still trails Perry. Fiorina averaging 5% in post-debate polls but needs to do better than that to pass Christie or Kasich.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 11 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 2)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.3
2   Bush    12.5
3   Walker    10.7
4   Carson    6.9
5   Cruz    6.0 ↑
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Rubio    5.8
8   Paul    5.4
9   Kasich    3.3 ↑
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Fiorina    1.6 ↑
13   Santorum    1.4  ↓
14   Jindal    1.2
15   Pataki   0.5
16   Graham    0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

[Bull Moose Base]

OK, so we potentially have Fiorina joining the grownups debate to make it 11, and potentially Gilmore failing to qualify for even the kiddie table.  That would leave just 5 candidates at the kiddie table.  What happens if Perry, or another kiddie table participant, ends up dropping out within the next two weeks?  They go ahead with the kiddie debate with only 4 candidates?

Didn't they at one time say, if the kids table were down to 4, they would split it into 8 and 6 instead? Which I think means if Perry saw the writing on the wall and wanted to screw over Kasich and Christie, he could drop out before the debate, no?

[Bull Moose Base]

From CNN's debate criteria:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf

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With Perry out and Gilmore not qualifying, that leaves 15 candidates, more than what they specify above. But presumably, the intention of the above proviso was to prevent an imbalance where the Grown-Up Debate has 10 candidates while the Kids Table Debate only has 4. With Fiorina added to the Grown Up Debate the imbalance is even starker and to be true to their intention, CNN could justify moving Kasich and Christie (who fall short of the Top 8 using either the original or the revised-for-Fiorina criteria) to the Kids Debate. In fact, if I were Jeff Zucker, I would so do in order to cause controversy that generates publicity for both debates.

But more likely, they'll just add Gilmore to kids table.