How right were everyone's predictions?
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  How right were everyone's predictions?
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Author Topic: How right were everyone's predictions?  (Read 953 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 08, 2005, 12:58:36 PM »

For me:
I got about 91% of the seats correct (there's some errors in my spreadsheet somewhere).
I got all the PC seats right, correctly guessing Ceredigon.
I was 7 under on Labour's number of seats, 13 over for the Tories and 2 under for the Lib Dems.
I overestimated the Labour and Tory vote shares.
For Northern Ireland, I got 15/18 seats correct.
I got Blaneau Gwent and Bethnal Green & Bow wrong, but Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale correct.

My predicted overall majority was 52, it ended up as 64 (I didn't count the Speaker in my calculations and I'm assuming Staffordshire South goes Tory).
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2005, 01:14:12 PM »

A bit of a curate's egg really; I'm very pleased with my Northern predictions, but I think I did pretty badly with my Southern ones.
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Emsworth
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2005, 01:49:21 PM »

I predicted:
Labour: 359 (actual 355)
Conservatives: 197 (correct)
Liberal Democrats: 58 (actual 62)
Others: 30 (correct)
Speaker: 1 (correct)
Vacant: 1 (correct)

So I essentially overestimated Labour and underestimated the Lib Dems by 4.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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E: -2.58, S: 2.43

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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2005, 08:10:23 AM »

Labour 366 seats (actual 356)
Conservative 194 seats (actual 197 - likely to be 198 following Staffordshire South voting)
Liberal Democrats 56 seats (actual 62)
Others 30 seats (actual 30)

Labour would have an overall majority of 86 Wink instead of 66

I guess I underestimated the Lib Dem tally as much as anything. Never thought Manchester Withington would go Lib Dem

Dave
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2005, 01:24:13 PM »

Just predicted NI: 16/18
S Antrim and S Belfast the two incorrect.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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India


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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2005, 04:19:48 AM »

I was pretty bad really. Way too optimistic (that is, way too few Tory pickups, way too many LD pickups.) I had Labour 5 too high IIRC.
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