Will the winner in 2016 be a one-term president?

[bagelman]

I think it depends less on the party in power than the person, but if we get a good GOP candidate the answer is probably no, and if we get Hillary Clinton then the answer is yes. At best she'd be the Bush Sr. to Obama's Reagan. At worst she'd be corrupt.

[Sir Mohamed]

Larry Sabato's take on reapportionment. (I know that's not what this thread was originally for, but let's face it, that's what this thread is now)

Oregon gaining a seat might be interesting.

As West Virginia loses seats and relevancy, maybe Democrats here will stop mourning that the party isn't competitive there anymore?

As far as I know, by the 2020 census will not chance the electoral college in this year. The first election with the new numbers will be 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hard to say if Clinton is elected. She wont be Bush Sr. Both Bushes weren't done in by themselves; they were done in by their VP's Quayle & Cheney. Quayle made damaging remarks to women's groups, Clinton is a woman herself and majority of voters are females.

[Hydera]

Traditionally a recession occurs once every 5-9 years and were getting really close. So... Yes.

[WVdemocrat]

I don't get the idea that we're due for a recession. We are seeing sustained long-term growth under President Obama rather than the jumping from boom to boom as has happened in the past. I'm not sure history will repeat itself in this case.

[/]

Traditionally a recession occurs once every 5-9 years and were getting really close. So... Yes.

Naht if Bernie wins and reintroduces Glass-Steagall.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If there is a minor recession (and it seems like the next one will be minor), 90% of Americans won't even know that there is one going on.  I actually think that the minor recession is just starting right now, but we will see.

[Hydera]

Traditionally a recession occurs once every 5-9 years and were getting really close. So... Yes.

Naht if Bernie wins and reintroduces Glass-Steagall.

Sanders supporters need to try to learn to be funny not retards.

If there is a minor recession (and it seems like the next one will be minor), 90% of Americans won't even know that there is one going on.  I actually think that the minor recession is just starting right now, but we will see.

 

I think the recent drop in oil prices and if china does have a economic crash(stock market doesn't count). That might mean a more catastrophic crash in the oil sector(since china has fueled a lot of the post-2000's oil price rise) and exporters to china and domestic companies when their businesses in china go down. Might cause a feedback effect back in home which would be the start of that minor recession.


2001-2002, 1990-1991 were minor recessions.

I'm hoping for the latter not the former...

The mountain+mexico gulf states that benefited from the boom in oil prices could get really angry if unemployment rises.

[hopper]

Mild Recession and Hillary is President: She still gets re-elected

Mild or Disastrous Recession and a Republican is President: He or she loses

Disastrous Recession and Hillary is President: She might lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We absorbed the 2014 and 2015 recession. Now the economy is in full rebound. There might be some backsliding in Winter 2016, but nothing like 2014. The case for an all GOP govt is gone like it did after 2011.

[m4567]

The longest period without a recession? 1961-1974?

[Cryptic]

Ask again when 2020 rolls around.

[Mordecai]

It pretty much all depends on when the next recession is, so it's anybody's guess, really.

This, and how organized Republicans are after 2016.

[bballrox4717]

I think there's a significant chance on both sides. Voters will likely be a lot less forgiving to a third term Democrat if things start going badly. At the same time though, the party is still very united and is gaining demographically.

IMO it's more likely for the Republicans though because the current GOP Congress will want to push through as much conservative legislation as possible if they still control the House and Senate. There's either going to be a split between the president and Congress or the president lurches too far to the right to get reelected.

[RFayette]

I'd say it's about a 51% chance right now.

I'd lean more toward 70-75%.  I just have a hard time believing there won't be a recession between 2017-2020, and it seems like a 2019-2020 recession is at least somewhat probable.

[Mr. Smith]

Given how bad both sides are, certainly.

1976 style victory for the GOP or 1988 style victory for the Dems seem like the only possible outcomes right now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given how bad both sides are, certainly.

1976 style victory for the GOP or 1988 style victory for the Dems seem like the only possible outcomes right now.

I completely agree

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since I think Clinton and Castro will win, hopefully not since I want Kennedy replaced on SCOTUS and he will leave sometime before 2022.

Barring another economic meltdown and 2018 midterm is a neutral and not a GOP wave; Dems can keep it going.