Who will win the Canadian Federal Election

[emcee0]

What do you think the outcome would be, and what outcome do you want?

[Mr. Morden]

NDP minority maybe?  What kind of popular vote lead would they need in order to have a shot at a majority?

[emcee0]

Harper won his last (and hopefully only) majority with 39% of the vote.

[Zioneer]

NDP Minority seems feasible, and from what I hear, the Conservatives aren't doing too well at the moment. Plus there's no way the Liberals coalition with the Conservatives (as far as I know).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Canadian electorate aren't anything if not crazy volatile. It could very easily be any of the listed possibilities.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

NDP minority or, less likely, an NDP-Liberal coalition with Mulcair as PM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sadly, there's plenty of time left for Harper to pull it off. I'll go with Conservative Minority and strongly wish to be proven wrong.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's no option for 'the Conservatives might well get a plurality of seats, but they likely won't reach a majority, and if they don't have a majority they will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to govern'. I guess 'NDP minority' comes closest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's no option for 'the Conservatives might well get a plurality of seats, but they likely won't reach a majority, and if they don't have a majority they will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to govern'. I guess 'NDP minority' comes closest.

What makes you assume the Liberals would agree to back the NDP in a coalition? Past attempt of non-Torie forces to ally haven't been very successful.

[Talleyrand]

It'll be a Conservative majority or minority. Any other outcome is exceedingly unlikely.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's no option for 'the Conservatives might well get a plurality of seats, but they likely won't reach a majority, and if they don't have a majority they will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to govern'. I guess 'NDP minority' comes closest.

What makes you assume the Liberals would agree to back the NDP in a coalition? Past attempt of non-Torie forces to ally haven't been very successful.

Trudeau has heavily hinted at it, and seems serious.

Also, you know, wishful thinking.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Since this is Canada I'll just go with an out-of-nowhere prediction of a Liberal government of some kind.

[DC Al Fine]

There's no option for 'the Conservatives might well get a plurality of seats, but they likely won't reach a majority, and if they don't have a majority they will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to govern'. I guess 'NDP minority' comes closest.

What makes you assume the Liberals would agree to back the NDP in a coalition? Past attempt of non-Torie forces to ally haven't been very successful.

Previous attempts would have included the Bloc, which is pretty much asking for a large Tory win next time.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh and to answer the OP:

Con > Lib
Con > NDP
Con < (Lib + NDP)

[SWE]

Conservative Minority

[VPH]

Oh and to answer the OP:

Con > Lib
Con > NDP
Con < (Lib + NDP)

So what happens? Another election or Harper has to make major compromises?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm very surprised that more people are expecting a Conservative majority than a Conservative minority.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm very surprised that more people are expecting a Conservative majority than a Conservative minority.

I guess the thinking is that as long as NDP + Libs is a majority this time, the Libs (assuming they're the smaller of the two parties) will prop up an NDP minority government somehow, even if not as part of a formal coalition.  If that's true, then a Conservative minority government could only happen under a very narrow set of circumstances.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm very surprised that more people are expecting a Conservative majority than a Conservative minority.

I guess the thinking is that as long as NDP + Libs is a majority this time, the Libs (assuming they're the smaller of the two parties) will prop up an NDP minority government somehow, even if not as part of a formal coalition.  If that's true, then a Conservative minority government could only happen under a very narrow set of circumstances.

That's actually what I think will happen too, but the question doesn't really make clear whether it's referring to plurality of seats or government formation. I guess I'm just surprised that so many people think a Conservative majority is likely.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh and to answer the OP:

Con > Lib
Con > NDP
Con < (Lib + NDP)

So what happens? Another election or Harper has to make major compromises?

Progressive coalition. Harper resigns and we see what voters think of it in 2019.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could the Liberals work with Tories, but force them to choose a less polarising leader to be PM (maybe someone from their Red Tory wing?)

[RogueBeaver]

Could the Liberals work with Tories, but force them to choose a less polarising leader to be PM (maybe someone from their Red Tory wing?)

LOL no. We'd go into opposition instead & tell them to fyck off.

[TNF]

My gut feeling says the Conservatives stick around. But you never know, given the ability of the Canadian electorate to turn on a dime and deliver interesting results, as was recently the case in Alberta. Perhaps and NDP win would finally divorce leftists of the notion that the NDP is 'their' party in any real sense, given that an NDP government would quickly sell out whatever notions they've got of being a 'socialist' party in any real sense.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Could the Liberals work with Tories, but force them to choose a less polarising leader to be PM (maybe someone from their Red Tory wing?)

LOL no. We'd go into opposition instead & tell them to fyck off.

Not to mention that most of the Liberal voters left would blow up. They would just be solidifying their position as the third party.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

1.) Conservative Minority government (I get the feeling there might be an election day surge)
2.) NDP Majority (in a Coalition; with whom, I am not informed enough about Canadian politics to know)


It's 50-50 to me, but Conservative Minority gets a slight edge