When will the US economy go into recession?

[Yelnoc]

What do you think? My vote is for next year, bookending Obama's presidency with two major recessions.

[eric82oslo]

Why would the US economy go into recession next year? Because of a slowing China? Because of Europe? Few economies in the world are doing as great as the US' now.

[Yelnoc]

Why would the US economy go into recession next year? Because of a slowing China? Because of Europe? Few economies in the world are doing as great as the US' now.

Total energy consumption in the OECD region has fallen sharply over the past year. That was a lead indicator ahead of the 2008 crash, and suggests underlying demand in the west is slowing. Slowing demand typically causes an economy to contract.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't pretend to know these things, but if I had to guess, 2016. OTOH, there seems to be some sign of recession every quarter so

[RFayette]

2019 or 2020 has been my consistent, albeit uninformed prediction.  I had always envisioned history playing out with 4 years of Hillary followed by a GOP President, so this admittedly dovetails nicely with that prediction.  

Part of my rationale is that growth is fairly tepid historically, but that could indicate a longer growth period rather than an economy running in "spurts."

[eric82oslo]

 Part of my rationale is that growth is fairly tepid historically, but that could indicate a longer growth period rather than an economy running in "spurts."

Exactly.

[NeverAgain]

Optimists Vote for me!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I don't pretend to know these things, but if I had to guess, 2016. OTOH, there seems to be some sign of recession every quarter so

I think we could see a global recession without the U.S. going into recession itself. This did happen before, in 1998, but the other four times (1974-74, 1982, 1991, and 2008-09) we followed the world into the abyss.

The IMF downgraded their forecast for global GDP growth for this year to 3.3% and 2016 to 3.7%, and the definition of a global recession is anything less than 3%. If Europe keeps grinding sideways, China's growth plunges, and if the Fed does raise interest rates this fall/next year and causes chaos in developing markets, I think it is very possibly global GDP growth could fall below 3% (thus, a global recession) while the U.S. just slips a bit to 2% growth (not a recession).


However, I am optimistic about the short-term.

[Mordecai]

Probably a minor one in 2017/2018.

[Kingpoleon]

A minor one in 2016/2017(40%), a medium-sized one in 2019 or 2021(20%), or a large one at least two-thirds the size of the Great Recession in 2025-2027(40%).

[Ebsy]

Impossible to predict.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Impossible to predict.

When has that stopped the amateur prognosticators from predicting something before?

They feel the recession in their gut just like they feel Trump's impending downfall. When it happens (months after the initial prediction), they'll chalk one up in the "I was right" column anyway.

[King]

There are generally some indicators. People were debating the possibility of a housing bubble around 2005.

I haven't heard of a concrete argument as to why we are due for a recession other than politically motivated libertarians hoping for the U.S. dollar to collapse.

[Maxwell]

We're still not at full employment, so it will be a while before we get into another recession unless we make some terribly rash decisions.