KY caucus *will* go forward, as long as Rand Paul shows them the $

[/]

Would be nice if he has to choose between running for President and Senate (I hope he chooses President because he'll never win that one).

[Mr. Morden]

Paul says he's already transferred the $, but the Kentucky GOP says they haven't received it:

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/18/3994360/despite-telling-republicans-otherwise.html

Decision time on whether to go ahead with the caucus is coming up this weekend.

[Mr. Morden]

Saturday’s meeting to decide on whether to go ahead with the caucuses will begin at 10am:

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/20/3997626_rand-paul-asks-supporters-to-rally.html?rh=1

Unclear what time they’ll announce the decision.  As the story notes, this is essentially a vote of confidence on Paul’s campaign.  Also:

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[Flake]

My guess is that he'll say "I had to choose between running for President and continuing being your Senator, and I decided that the best way to help Kentucky is to continue to serve them as their Senator blah blah blah" and exit the prezzy race.

[The Other Castro]

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lol

[ElectionsGuy]

I watched Rachel Maddow tonight and she said that there's a decent chance Rand Paul would have to drop out literally this weekend because of this. She also said that Adam Edelen could get his Senate seat.

lol, she's so full of sh**t.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/hard-choice-could-make-paul-first-dropout-510697027672

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/hard-choice-could-make-paul-first-dropout-510697027672

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I decided to merge this with the existing Kentucky caucus thread.  Let's at least wait a couple of hours for the Kentucky GOP to announce what they're going to do, before adding new threads about Paul dropping out.

Even if the Kentucky GOP decides against him, I don't think Paul is going to give up as early as this weekend.  That seems like it would be a big overreaction.  He's got until January to decide which race to run for, and I'm sure he's going to try floating some gimmick solutions as trial balloons before that, like leaving his name off of the Kentucky presidential primary ballot and running in the other 49 states.  That will probably seem like too much of a gimmick to people for that to fly, but that kind of thing will be floated.  Paul will talk about how the KY law is unconstitutional or something, in order to stretch out his decision, as he keeps his options open.

[Mr. Morden]

Should be noted that a majority won't be enough for Paul.

The caucuses won't happen unless at least 2/3rds of those in today's meeting vote to hold them.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Someone earlier complained that GOP Gubenatorial Candidate Matt Bevin "screwed over" Paul.

IIRC, Rand Paul endorsed Mitch McConnell in his Senate Primary in 2014.  This kind of undermines Bevin's sense of loyalty to Paul, don'tcha think?

If I were Rand Paul, I'd use these events to credibly drop out of the Presidential race.  There is NO way he can win, and there is NO way he'll maintain his relevance out of office at this point.

[Krago]

Why doesn't Ron Paul enter the Kentucky Republican Presidential Primary as Rand's stand-in?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Paul should wait until November to drop out. It's quite possible that Grimes loses reelection this year, and a Republican SOS may very well be willing to refuse to enforce the law and let Paul appear twice on the primary (and GE) ballot.

[SteveRogers]

Paul should wait until November to drop out. It's quite possible that Grimes loses reelection this year, and a Republican SOS may very well be willing to refuse to enforce the law and let Paul appear twice on the primary (and GE) ballot.

Then the Democratic senate candidate would just sue Paul to remove him from the ballot.

[/]

Rand Paul 2016:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, it's been almost 3 and a half hours and no answer? I want to know if I have to start adding Cruz swag to my sig or not.

[Donerail]

The decision will be made by secret ballot, a move Paul's allies opposed. Probably bad news for Randal.

[ElectionsGuy]

So, if this fails, then Paul would either have run for Senate and give up on his presidential campaign entirely, appearing on no state's ballots (as the deadline for Kentucky is Jan 26, before Iowa). Or he could still run for president and Senate but be off the ballot in Kentucky presidential one, the only state he has a chance of winning. Either way, I think its clear that his presidential campaign is ed if this happens.

It might be done even if it goes through, but he could at least win one state or get through the early primary states.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Maybe it's my bias here, but I think they'll vote to make it a caucus, from what I understand Rand is still  well liked by the Kentucky GOP.

[Horsemask]

RIP DeadPrez

[Blue3]

No news yet? It's the afternoon now.

[Angel of Death]

I wonder where Paul's support would go to in the GOP primary.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Could he run as a write-in in one primary in order to avoid the law?

[Frodo]

Looks like another term in the Senate, then.....   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like another term in the Senate, then.....   

Has the decision been announced?

[PPT Spiral]

I wonder where Paul's support would go to in the GOP primary.

The two biggest beneficiaries would be Cruz, who fills the same "constitutional conservative" slot, and Trump, who also positions himself as an anti-establishment candidate.