MO-PPP: Blunt +5 over Kander. Blunt favorability is deeply underwater

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/JeffSmithMO/status/631087256695119872

Full poll out later today, but we know:

Blunt: 40%
Kander: 35%

Blunt favorable/unfavorable = 30/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is great. Hopefully, kander can win

[Brittain33]

#waveinsurance

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#waveinsurance

[mds32]

This still leans Republican, but Kander will make a race out of this. No doubt in my mind this can become competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ArK, MO or NC has a chance of flipping now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Full Poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/missouri-senate-governors-races-competitive.html

Blunt is at only 46/28 approval among republicans. He's at 24/52 among independents, 41/34 among very conservative voters, 47/32 among somewhat conservative voters, and 17/62 among democrats.

14% of very liberal voters are undecided, along with 17% of somewhat liberal voters, 29% of moderates, 26% of African Americans, and 22% of Democrats - Koster has plenty of room for potential growth in his support.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need to get Sestak & Strickland elected. But, Kander can surely make up for the loss in NV, as CCM is the most vulnerable Dem running.

[Maxwell]

A little warning for Democrats - his low approvals is mostly thanks to shockingly weak ratings with Republicans. That will improve.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its pumps me to think Portman & Blunt & open senate seat in FL may give us the senate.

[Senator Cris]

ArK, MO or NC has a chance of flipping now.

It's not that if a poll shows the democratic challanger down 5 points in Missouri, then the race in ArKansas is competitive.
2 different states, 2 different dynamics, 4 different candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the GOP; suppose to have solid leads in FL & OH & MO. The fact the races are competitive is promising. Especially in a QU poll, that have shown Strickland competitive.

[Xing]

This seat is a distant possibility, but in a toss-up election, I'm 99% sure it stays Republican. Republicans will come home for Blunt. This is certainly not a more likely pick-up than Pennsylvania, especially if Blunt is only doing a few points worse than the Republican ticket.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be so sure about that if I were you. It will be a colossal upset if CCM or Portman or Blunt loses, but Hilary can finish the job for the Dems in those states. Just as much as Heck pull the upset in NV.

Since Koster, is level pegging Kinder in the state as well. Kander seems like a reasonable moderate dem that can overcome the odds.

[DavidB.]

This seat is a distant possibility, but in a toss-up election, I'm 99% sure it stays Republican. Republicans will come home for Blunt. This is certainly not a more likely pick-up than Pennsylvania, especially if Blunt is only doing a few points worse than the Republican ticket.

Missouri Republicans have voted split ticket Romney/McCaskill as well. Of course, Blunt is not Todd Akin, but I'm not sure they will all "come home for Blunt". What's more, Missouri Dems don't need that high a percentage of Republicans not voting for Blunt to flip the seat.

Regarding PA, Toomey is more popular than Blunt.

[MT Treasurer]

This seat is a distant possibility, but in a toss-up election, I'm 99% sure it stays Republican. Republicans will come home for Blunt. This is certainly not a more likely pick-up than Pennsylvania, especially if Blunt is only doing a few points worse than the Republican ticket.

Missouri Republicans have voted split ticket Romney/McCaskill as well. Of course, Blunt is not Todd Akin, but I'm not sure they will all "come home for Blunt". What's more, Missouri Dems don't need that high a percentage of Republicans not voting for Blunt to flip the seat.

Regarding PA, Toomey is more popular than Blunt.

This exactly. I'm not sure why Toomey is considered more vulnerable than Blunt. I still think both races lean Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe Gov elect Koster instead of Kinder should change your mind. As far as OH & Pa, I'm getting RoBo calls from Strickland & Sestak about GOTV. Dems are invested in all three races.

[Xing]

This seat is a distant possibility, but in a toss-up election, I'm 99% sure it stays Republican. Republicans will come home for Blunt. This is certainly not a more likely pick-up than Pennsylvania, especially if Blunt is only doing a few points worse than the Republican ticket.

Missouri Republicans have voted split ticket Romney/McCaskill as well. Of course, Blunt is not Todd Akin, but I'm not sure they will all "come home for Blunt". What's more, Missouri Dems don't need that high a percentage of Republicans not voting for Blunt to flip the seat.

Regarding PA, Toomey is more popular than Blunt.

This exactly. I'm not sure why Toomey is considered more vulnerable than Blunt. I still think both races lean Republican.

It's not rocket science. Pennsylvania has a slight Democratic lean, while Missouri has a very strong Republican lean. Toomey could run a couple of points ahead of the Republican ticket and still lose, potentially. Kander will probably have to run at least 5 or 6 points ahead of Clinton to win here. Popularity isn't everything, just ask Senator Grimes how she beat the very unpopular McConnell, or how Sullivan lost to the popular Begich. Oh wait...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is in the realm of possibility that Koster at the gov level can give Kander the push he needs in order to win.

Also, if Clinton picks a swing state VP like Kaine, Strickland, Kander & Sestak can win.

[MT Treasurer]

This is what Blunt vs. Carnahan looked like 6 years ago:



Blunt ended up winning by 13. Not saying that we should draw any conclusions from that (except that early polls are meaningless).

This seat is a distant possibility, but in a toss-up election, I'm 99% sure it stays Republican. Republicans will come home for Blunt. This is certainly not a more likely pick-up than Pennsylvania, especially if Blunt is only doing a few points worse than the Republican ticket.

Missouri Republicans have voted split ticket Romney/McCaskill as well. Of course, Blunt is not Todd Akin, but I'm not sure they will all "come home for Blunt". What's more, Missouri Dems don't need that high a percentage of Republicans not voting for Blunt to flip the seat.

Regarding PA, Toomey is more popular than Blunt.

This exactly. I'm not sure why Toomey is considered more vulnerable than Blunt. I still think both races lean Republican.

It's not rocket science. Pennsylvania has a slight Democratic lean, while Missouri has a very strong Republican lean. Toomey could run a couple of points ahead of the Republican ticket and still lose, potentially. Kander will probably have to run at least 5 or 6 points ahead of Clinton to win here. Popularity isn't everything, just ask Senator Grimes how she beat the very unpopular McConnell, or how Sullivan lost to the popular Begich. Oh wait...

That's assuming the coattail effect exists, which I strongly doubt (see: 2000/4 PA Senate race, 2012 MO Senate/Governors race, etc. etc.) . I would rate both races "Lean R" at this point in time.

[Xing]

The coattail effect could very well exist, but even if it doesn't, the partisan lean of both states will affect each race. Also, I wouldn't say that the 2012 Missouri Senate race disproves the coattail effect. Specter in PA and Nixon in MO were much more well-ingrained than Toomey is, and were still running under somewhat favorable conditions. Sure, there could be a lot of split-ticketing in both senate races, but Toomey is much more vulnerable than Blunt, IMO. PA is Tilt to maybe Lean R, and MO is Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa isnt Lean R, it is very much a swing state, as much as it is at the presidential. QU doesnt give Dems a chance, but PPP has Dems down four.

As far as Jason Kander is concerned, if Blunt is only up five, then he is in trouble.

[JMT]

Blunt's 24/52 number amongst independents is what caught my eye here. If Kander can pull enough support from independents, I think there is a possibility he pulls off an upset. Still though, the state's partisan lean towards Republicans should make this race a lean R, and I think as the election gets closer, Blunt's favorability number amongst Republicans (46/28) will improve. So I still think Blunt wins in the end, but these numbers surprised me, and shows that he is more vulnerable than we once thought and that Kander could potentially win under the right conditions. 

[/]

These are numbers we can work with.