IA-Suffolk: Trump remains ahead

[Tender Branson]

17% Trump
12% Walker
10% Rubio
  9% Carson
  7% Fiorina
  7% Cruz
  5% Bush
  3% Kasich
  2% Christie
  2% Paul
  2% Huckabee
  1% Jindal
  1% Perry
  1% Santorum 
  0% Gilmore
  0% Graham
  0% Pataki
20% Undecided

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_11_2015_marginals.pdf

[King]

I don't know guys, I think we need a few more polls before we completely write off the notion that Kasich didn't win the debate.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I don't know guys, I think we need a few more polls before we completely write off the notion that Kasich didn't win the debate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly. At this point, Trump could probably call Ernst a bimbo and still be leading.

[DrScholl]

Trump is who the GOP primary electorate wants, it is a very conservative electorate.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

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Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 likely Iowa presidential caucus voters was conducted Aug. 7-10, 2015, using live telephone interviews of Republican primary voter households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to attend their local caucuses for president in six months. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60760.php#.VcooSrVLeYY

[Torie]

I don't know guys, I think we need a few more polls before we completely write off the notion that Kasich didn't win the debate.

Your sarcasm is duly noted. Florina won the debate, but Kasich did just fine, and shows strength in NH. Be patient. It's very early yet, and he has plenty of time to either show the right stuff as compared to his real competition (Rubio, Bush and Florina), or belly flop, or something in-between. What's the rush?

[Torie]

Trump is who the [20% or less of the] GOP primary electorate wants, it is a very conservative electorate.

Fixed. Your schadenfreude is not well taken, or at least premature.

[DrScholl]

Trump is who the [20% or less of the] GOP primary electorate wants, it is a very conservative electorate.

Fixed. Your schadenfreude is not well taken, or at least premature.

Considering that it only takes a plurality to win primaries and caucuses, I am correct in saying that the bulk of the electorate wants a conservative candidate like Trump.

[Lief 🗽]

BUT KASICH WON THE DEBATE AND TRUMP WAS THE BIG LOSER! The genius political analysts at Atlas told me so!!!!

[Torie]

BUT KASICH WON THE DEBATE AND TRUMP WAS THE BIG LOSER! The genius political analysts at Atlas told me so!!!!

You should be studying for the Professional Responsibility exam.

[Torie]

Trump is who the [20% or less of the] GOP primary electorate wants, it is a very conservative electorate.

Fixed. Your schadenfreude is not well taken, or at least premature.

Considering that it only takes a plurality to win primaries and caucuses, I am correct in saying that the bulk of the electorate wants a conservative candidate like Trump.

Bulk? How about a plurality in a currently Balkanized field?  I won't get into an arid discussion about whether Trump is a "conservative."  What he really is, is an opportunist. He has no ideology other than his own self advancement.

[The Mikado]

Honestly. At this point, Trump could probably call Ernst a bimbo and still be leading.

Why do you think that'd damage him? If anything, it'd increase his numbers.

[Oak Hills]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

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Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

[Torie]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

Many folks, including my partner, loved Carson's gentle temperament and of course remembered his closing statement.

[Oakvale]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

Basically no-one but people like us actually watches the debates.

[Oak Hills]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

Many folks, including my partner, loved Carson's gentle temperament and of course remembered his closing statement.

Well I didn't remember a thing about his closing statement.  I guess I'm just weird.

[Torie]

Yes, you are weird.

[Skye]

Fiorina surge is real.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio, Fiorina, and Cruz are all taking a surge. Walker, Huckabee, and Paul are going downward.

[Averroës Nix]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

Many folks, including my partner, loved Carson's gentle temperament and of course remembered his closing statement.

Well I didn't remember a thing about his closing statement.  I guess I'm just weird.

1. Siamese Twins
2. Brains

Personally I found the torture and tithing remarks more memorable.

[Bull Moose Base]

Sounds like Carson's line suggesting people in Washington have half a brain resonated, which fits with Trump's surge powered by anti-establishment rage and a smaller one by Fiorina who has no government experience. Whatever happens to these candidates individually, I don't buy that that sentiment will be irrelevant in the GOP primary.

Last cycle, after Perry, wearing the image of Tea Party-friendly Texan, collapsed, Cain picked up his support and surged, and when he collapsed, they went to Gingrich, who, though a former House Speaker, had a knack for channelling anti-Washington resentment. Gingrich was ultimately destroyed by messaging that targeted him as a corrupt Washington insider (messaging funded by the establishment, but no matter). It's true Romney ultimately won the nomination but polling showed Tea Party supporters actually approved of Romney more than many people here realize. He also ran to Perry's right on illegal immigration, and argued the idea should be to get the undocumented to self-deport.

I don't know how far Trump goes. He keeps embarrassing pundits predicting the imminent end for him. Even if they're right at some point, that energy might then be tapped by Carson or Fiorina (but her old praise of Islam, maybe dug up by Trump or a Trump-ally, seems insurmountable in a GOP primary). I'll be surprised if we don't see Ted Cruz surge, especially in Iowa.

[Simfan34]

Iowa voters see Rubio and Carson as the primary debate winners and pick Fiorina by a wide margin as winner of the secondary debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, did these people watch the same debate I watched?

Basically no-one but people like us actually watches the debates.

Oh God, you mean there's 24 million of us?!

[Lief 🗽]

BUT KASICH WON THE DEBATE AND TRUMP WAS THE BIG LOSER! The genius political analysts at Atlas told me so!!!!

You should be studying for the Professional Responsibility exam.

I already took that in February! Passed by ten whole points.

[Mr. Morden]

Who would be your 2nd choice for the nomination?:

Carson 12%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 11%
Walker 10%
Fiorina 9%
Bush 9%
Trump 6%

[So yeah, the other candidates' supporters don't seem to be that open to switching to Trump, which would suggest that candidates like Carson and Rubio have more room for growth than he does.  (But then, we said that before Trump's latest surge, so who knows.)]

fav/unfav among Republican voters:

Carson 78/7% for +71%
Fiorina 70/8% for +62%
Walker 73/13% for +60%
Rubio 72/12% for +60%
Huckabee 69/19% for +50%
Cruz 64/17% for +47%
Kasich 48/17% for +31%
Bush 48/36% for +12%
Trump 45/37% for +8%
Paul 39/41% for -2%
Christie 37/43% for -6%

[Takeaways: Carson and Fiorina now have very high name recognition, at least in Iowa, and Republicans absolutely love them.  Trump is still polarizing among Republicans.  Paul's favorability has taken a pounding.]

Who impressed you most in the debate?

Rubio 23%
Carson 22%
Cruz 11%
Trump 11%
Kasich 8%
Huckabee 6%
Walker 5%
Bush 2%
Paul 2%
Christie 0%

Also, asked of those Republicans who say they watched the debate:
"After watching Donald Trump, do you feel more comfortable with him as a candidate for president or less comfortable?"
more: 23%
less: 55%