Rejoice Clinton Hacks!

[Crumpets]

Nate Silver declares Bernie bump "over."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-bernie-sanders-surge-appears-to-be-over/?ex_cid=538fb

[Pyro]

Doubt it. Crowd sizes are growing and incidents like the BLM interruption are boosting support.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Doubt it. Crowd sizes are growing and incidents like the BLM interruption are boosting support.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or another case of HDS.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Doubt it. Crowd sizes are growing and incidents like the BLM interruption are boosting support.

I'm waiting on polls, but you're right. There's been a big uptick in interest. Not sure how that will translate. I'll give it a week or two.

[Mehmentum]

Not surprised.

[Bull Moose Base]

How was Obama doing Summer of 2007?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Crowd sizes mean jack.

[Mehmentum]

How was Obama doing Summer of 2007?

According to RCP:

Nationally (8/1)
Clinton: 39 (+13.7)
Obama: 25.3
Edwards: Not shown, probably in the teens.

Clinton: 58 (+39.8 )
Sanders: 18.2

Iowa (8/1)
Edwards: 23.8
Clinton: 23.5 (-0.3)
Obama: 17.5
Richardson: 10.3

Clinton: 53.5  (+28)
Sanders: 25.5

New Hampshire (8/1)
Clinton: 30.3 (+4)
Obama: 26.3
Edwards: 10.7
Richardson: 8.3

Clinton: 45.5 (+15)
Sanders: 30.5

[Crumpets]

How was Obama doing Summer of 2007?

About 20 points behind Hillary nationally, 5-10 points behind and tied with Edwards in Iowa, and 15-20 points behind in New Hampshire.

Currently, Bernie is about 35 points behind Hillary, 25-30 points behind in Iowa, and 5-10 points behind in New Hampshire. So, not impossible to pull an '08 repeat, but a very, very big uphill climb.

[Bull Moose Base]

How was Obama doing Summer of 2007?

About 20 points behind Hillary nationally, 5-10 points behind and tied with Edwards in Iowa, and 15-20 points behind in New Hampshire.

Currently, Bernie is about 35 points behind Hillary, 25-30 points behind in Iowa, and 5-10 points behind in New Hampshire. So, not impossible to pull an '08 repeat, but a very, very big uphill climb.

Yeah, I still can't imagine Hillary losing this either. That said, in Iowa and New Hampshire, while he's trailing Hillary by much bigger margins, his % of support if higher than Obama's was at the same time, as seen in Mehmentum's post above. Seems the difference is Hillary is just much stronger than she was 8 years ago.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What a load of BS. On October 18, 2007, Obama had been flat for months while Clinton was growing, and had a 48-21 lead over him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[Crumpets]

What a load of BS. On October 18, 2007, Obama had been flat for months while Clinton was growing, and had a 48-21 lead over him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Neither the article nor any of the responses have said it's totally impossible for Sanders to win, just that he's gotten the "low-hanging fruit" and that we shouldn't expect him to continue growing his vote share at anywhere near the rate he has managed over the past few months.

[Mr. Morden]

Enten isn't saying that Sanders won't gain anymore in the polls.  He's just saying that the "surge" is over, which he defines as the recent gains that Sanders made via increasing his name recognition.  Now that he's become moderately well known among Democratic primary voters, he needs to actually convince people who already know who he is and don't yet support him, which is harder to do .

[daverep]

Does anyone have any data on how crowd size correlates to vote share in primaries/general election? My gut says "not at all," but I'm interested in if there are hard numbers on this (haven't seen this on FiveThirtyEight)

[Eraserhead]

You all had to know that as soon as loser Nate Silver put this out that Sanders would take the lead in New Hampshire.

[Penelope]

You all had to know that as soon as loser Nate Silver put this out that Sanders would take the lead in New Hampshire.

Yeah, these days I think predicting the opposite of what FiveThirtyEight says is sometimes the safer bet. For a statistics-driven sports and politics analysis website, the amount of sports and politics predictions that they've gotten hilariously, flat-out wrong is astonishing.