Hillary Clinton and White People

[Crumpets]

I've heard it said a lot that the support for Hillary Clinton in a state is inversely proportional to how white the state is (i.e. the more white, the worse Hillary does). This is attributed to Sanders's "problem" with black voters, as well as Hillary seemingly doing better among Hispanics and worse among whites. So, here's a graph of Hillary's lead in each polled state versus the percent of the state's population that is non-Hispanic white.



That's right. Hillary is over-performing in Colorado and under-performing in New York and Illinois. That equation: Clinton lead=-0.6049*(%white)+78.4 might also be useful in figuring out how the election might look in un-polled states.

[Indy Texas]

Not much point in having a discussion about something with that low of an R^2.

Try adding some variables. Maybe instead of using the state population demographics, use the demographics of the 2012 Democratic primaries.

[Mehmentum]

Not much point in having a discussion about something with that low of an R^2.

Try adding some variables. Maybe instead of using the state population demographics, use the demographics of the 2012 2008 Democratic primaries.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Not much point in having a discussion about something with that low of an R^2.

Try adding some variables. Maybe instead of using the state population demographics, use the demographics of the 2012 2008 Democratic primaries.

I think more polls may be helpful as well. I'm sure that some of the polls used are quite old.

[Reaganfan]

Her big problem, and the Democratic Party's problem are white voters. Period. I'm stunned at how many white people I know through friends or work or family loath Hillary and vow to vote against her at all costs, and nearly all of them who I knew at the time were vocal Obama voters.

That's why the more this "Black Lives Matter" stuff happens and the more Hillary panders to 13% of the population, she's alienating white voters. When they see angry blacks in Ferguson shouting, "We ready for what? WE READY FOR WAR!" do you think they are saying, "Oh those poor people?" Hell no, with the exception of a slim tiny minority, most are terrified.

Remember...had Obama gotten just 3% less more of the white vote, Mitt Romney would have won in spite of "changing demographics". Imagine the anger if whites cost Democrats the White House.

Happens.

[DS0816]

Her big problem, and the Democratic Party's problem are white voters. Period. I'm stunned at how many white people I know through friends or work or family loath Hillary and vow to vote against her at all costs, and nearly all of them who I knew at the time were vocal Obama voters.

In which Republican county do you live, Reaganfan?

Is it Butler County?

[Reaganfan]

Her big problem, and the Democratic Party's problem are white voters. Period. I'm stunned at how many white people I know through friends or work or family loath Hillary and vow to vote against her at all costs, and nearly all of them who I knew at the time were vocal Obama voters.

In which Republican county do you live, Reaganfan?

Is it Butler County?

Summit County Ohio.