In 2008 the Presidential race was basically a tie in Missouri but Mitt Romney won the state easily in 2012 and it doesn't look like there's a ton of hope for a Democratic victory there next year either.
Clinton trails all of the Republicans in the state by margins ranging from 7 to 15 points. Marco Rubio fares the best, leading her by 15 points at 51/36. Ben Carson leads her by 14 at 52/38, and John Kasich (49/36), Scott Walker (50/37) and Mike Huckabee (51/38) each lead her by 13 points.
The GOP hopefuls Clinton comes closest to are Jeb Bush who she trails by 7 at 47/40, and Donald Trump and Chris Christie who she has 9 point deficits against at 48/39 and 46/37 respectively. In between are Carly Fiorina who leads Clinton by 10 at 47/37, and Rand Paul (49/37) and Ted Cruz (50/38) who each lead Clinton by 12 points.
We found on our Iowa poll that Clinton and Bernie Sanders weren't faring that different from each other in general election match ups against the Republicans and that trend presents itself in Missouri as well. Sanders does worse than Clinton against Bush, trailing 47/34. But his 15 point deficit against Rubio (48/33) is the same as Clinton's, his 9 point deficit against Trump (48/39) is the same as Clinton's, and he actually does a tick better than Clinton against Walker trailing by 12 points compared to her 13 at 46/34. On average Sanders only does a point worse than Clinton in the comparable match ups.
Missouri does present more evidence of the threat a Donald Trump independent bid could pose to the Republican Party though. He actually beats out Jeb Bush as a third party candidate, getting 30% to 29% for Bush with Clinton leading the way at 34%. Trump leads with independents at 37%, and gets 39% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats as well.
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Public Policy Polling surveyed 859 voters from August 7th to 9th, including 440 Republican
primary voters and 352 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is
+/-3.3%, for the Republican primary voters it’s +/-4.7%, and for the Democratic primary voters
it’s +/-5.2%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
