If Trump were to run, would we see an "establishment" third party challenge?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, all the discussion so far has been on when Trump somehow is dislodged whether he will try and play spoiler. But what if Trump wins? Obviously most of your average Republican establishment (and more importantly, the moneybags behind them) loathe the guy. Will Atlas's wet dream (the "moderate independent" dream ticket) start to arise?

[Torie]

Highly unlikely, because it would be so late. But perhaps Bloomberg could do it, who might conceivably have a chance, depending on how damaged Hillary is at that point.

[Mr. Morden]

Highly unlikely, because it would be so late.

They wouldn't be able to hijack an existing third party's ballot line?  What is the Reform Party up to these days anyway?

[SteveRogers]

I do wonder whether Priebus has the RNC working on a "doomsday plan" of sorts for if Trump gets the nomination. At that point, would a substantial number of Republican governors and senators refuse to endorse Trump? The Republican establishment throwing support behind a breakaway third party ticket would obviously mean Democrats take the white house quite easily, but some might see it as worth it to minimize the damage down the ballot. But even then, I don't think the Republican establishment would find a centrist Bloomberg-style ticket any more palatable. If anything we'd be looking at a mainstream Republican running third party.

Highly unlikely, because it would be so late.

They wouldn't be able to hijack an existing third party's ballot line?  What is the Reform Party up to these days anyway?

Not much. As far as I can tell, the Reform Party is now just a few people who meet up in a hotel every few years. According to wikipedia, in 2012 they were only on the ballot in Florida with write-in status in several other states and received a whopping 962 votes.

There really isn't a good ballot line to hijack anymore. The Libertarians are the only third party left with nearly universal ballot access.

[Mehmentum]

When are ballot access deadlines?  Its likely that the GOP establishment would have quite a bit of advanced warning.  If a third party effort starts in February or March, could they get ballot access in most states? 

[Famous Mortimer]

Highly unlikely, because it would be so late.

They wouldn't be able to hijack an existing third party's ballot line?  What is the Reform Party up to these days anyway?

The Reform Party does not have ballot access in any state except Florida, where you can basically get on the ballot by asking.

[King]

Only if Sanders won the Democratic nomination, too.

[Famous Mortimer]

When are ballot access deadlines?  Its likely that the GOP establishment would have quite a bit of advanced warning.  If a third party effort starts in February or March, could they get ballot access in most states? 

I suspect if Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or some establishment Republican ran as an independent with RNC backing, Republican controlled state legislatures would change ballot access laws for them.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Or we get something like Bloomberg/Portman. You'd need a Republican who could chip away at Democratic support. Suddenly the RINOs would be in demand.

[DavidB.]

Or we get something like Bloomberg/Portman. You'd need a Republican who could chip away at Democratic support. Suddenly the RINOs would be in demand.

Mark Kirk could get a new job immediately after being outvoted in Illinois...

[Deaddogseye]

If Trump were to be the Republican nominee there would be no third party run by the mainstream Republicans. They would actually probably get behind him because as much as they don't like him above all it is in their interests to win the presidency and if he is the nominee he will be the only path for them to that goal. They would abandon him only if they were convinced not just that he would lose but that he would take down the entire party -- ie cause the House majority to be lost.

Actually he may be getting himself in to a position where he could make a lot of demands on the party and the eventual nominee -- if his support level holds at about where it is. And it may. I don't see it going higher but it may hold up.

[Famous Mortimer]

Or we get something like Bloomberg/Portman. You'd need a Republican who could chip away at Democratic support. Suddenly the RINOs would be in demand.

If Republicans ran someone against Trump, it would be because they're mad he's not a generic Republican. They wouldn't go and put forward someone else who isn't a generic Republican, that would defeat the whole point of running against Trump.

No, given where Trump is weak, they would be far more likely to go after Hispanics than to go after Democratic moderates. That's why Bush and Rubio would be the most likely candidates.

[Blair]

Isn't Bloomberg hated due to his extremely vocal support for gun control, and rather moderate stance. I can't see him getting even the average republican to turn out for him.

The moderates would just give him lukewarm or no support, let him lose and then wait until 2020

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Or we get something like Bloomberg/Portman. You'd need a Republican who could chip away at Democratic support. Suddenly the RINOs would be in demand.

If Republicans ran someone against Trump, it would be because they're mad he's not a generic Republican. They wouldn't go and put forward someone else who isn't a generic Republican, that would defeat the whole point of running against Trump.

No, given where Trump is weak, they would be far more likely to go after Hispanics than to go after Democratic moderates. That's why Bush and Rubio would be the most likely candidates.

I would think the point would be to get anyone who's better than Hillary to win. Donald can't win. A boring generic Republican can't win if Trump is in the race. A centrist could, and at least he or she would be better than President H. R. Clinton.

[Famous Mortimer]

Or we get something like Bloomberg/Portman. You'd need a Republican who could chip away at Democratic support. Suddenly the RINOs would be in demand.

If Republicans ran someone against Trump, it would be because they're mad he's not a generic Republican. They wouldn't go and put forward someone else who isn't a generic Republican, that would defeat the whole point of running against Trump.

No, given where Trump is weak, they would be far more likely to go after Hispanics than to go after Democratic moderates. That's why Bush and Rubio would be the most likely candidates.

I would think the point would be to get anyone who's better than Hillary to win. Donald can't win. A boring generic Republican can't win if Trump is in the race. A centrist could, and at least he or she would be better than President H. R. Clinton.

I don't think it's at all clear that Bloomberg is better than Hillary from a Republican perspective. Certainly not significantly different enough to justify voting against the mother party.

[pho]

No, it would just look a lot like 1964.

[Deaddogseye]

The problem Bloomberg has is that he has no political following whatsoever outside of his own imagination and maybe a couple of guys in the NYC press corp. NONE NONE NONE!

Everything the guy does is one big cry for attention, and it just doesn't work outside of New York City.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well obviously Bloomberg would be a bust, but I can think of a willing figure that might be wheeled out:

[/]

Probably not; I guess it might be possible for one or two major establishment candidates to want to enter the race as a third party member, but I doubt that the mainstream GOP will rally around him/her as it will split the vote.

[Simfan34]

I could see Gary Johnson being pressed into such a role-- he was a two-term governor, after all, and could be reasonably electable. The Libertarians already have ballot access, so if the RNC went to him offering the cooperation of both houses of Congress if he was elected, I imagine he could be cajoled into making some compromises (perhaps they'd offer some concessions on social issues) and taking on a GOPer as running mate. Rand Paul is the obvious choice but I imagine the establishment would want someone a bit more on "their" side.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

If Trump actually won the nomination, there may well be some state Republican parties that were so unable to abide this that they would nominate unpledged electors.  This would actually be more likely to happen in the South and Mountain West than in states where Trump would not run as well.  He'd be the new Strom Thurmond, who won the states in 1948 where he was the DEMOCRATIC Party's nominee.

[Figueira]

I could see Gary Johnson being pressed into such a role-- he was a two-term governor, after all, and could be reasonably electable. The Libertarians already have ballot access, so if the RNC went to him offering the cooperation of both houses of Congress if he was elected, I imagine he could be cajoled into making some compromises (perhaps they'd offer some concessions on social issues) and taking on a GOPer as running mate. Rand Paul is the obvious choice but I imagine the establishment would want someone a bit more on "their" side.

Precisely what I was thinking. Johnson is probably not too popular among the GOP establishment, but most of them would prefer him to Trump.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Trump actually won the nomination, there may well be some state Republican parties that were so unable to abide this that they would nominate unpledged electors.  This would actually be more likely to happen in the South and Mountain West than in states where Trump would not run as well.  He'd be the new Strom Thurmond, who won the states in 1948 where he was the DEMOCRATIC Party's nominee.

Except he's leading all the polls in the South.

No, if Trump wins the nomination, he's got the GOP ballot line in every state.

Worst case scenario for him, another GOPer runs as an independent and gets the endorsement of a couple dozen members of Congress. A couple dozen more stay neutral.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I only threw that scenario out as a wild "maybe".  If Trump is not stopped before the convention, or at the convention, the GOP is stuck with him.

I don't see a third party or independent bid by Trump coming forth.  In this polarized environment, I don't see a lot of Republicans jumping ship for Trump, even those who would support him in the primary.  What COULD happen, however, is a messy GOP convention, where the dirty linen is on display in prime time, and THAT could cause the GOP to lose big.  That's the real "leverage" Trump has; the ability to win delegates, demonstrate at the convention, etc.  We haven't had much of that in a long time; perhaps it's time for a comeback.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Teensy problem. Trump is not a conservative by any stretch of the imagination. In fact he's much closer in view with the establishment if not the Democrats. He's running to keep the real Tea Party candidates (Paul, Cruz, Walker, Carson, Rubio) from getting the nod. The Clintons and Trump go way back.