New Timeline Starting in 1984

[True Democrat]

August 14, 1984

After a come from behind victory in the Democratic primaries through his so-called "Southern Strategy", Al Gore is ready to take on President Ronald Reagan.  The primary starts in two days, and Al Gore still hasn't picked a running mate.  He can't decide on whether to pick someone from the West, Midwest, or Northeast.  So far in the campaign, Gore has held Reagan to an average of a 6 point lead.  The South looks like it is going to go Gore since he is the Southern candidate.  The West is very strong for Reagan, especially suburban areas in California and Washington.  The upper midwest is Reagan's worst area as there is a farm crisis.  Reagan is rising in the polls after his successful Republican convention two weeks earlier.

August 20, 1984

After a stirring convention, the Democrats are on track to take on President Reagan.  Former President Carter gave a great speech on the first night telling the country that Democrats should not be afraid to show they are moral people.  He also condemned the foreign policy of Ronald Reagan and the neoconservative wing of the Republican party.  Former Vice-President Mondale called for Democrats to present a united front against Reagan in November.    On the second night, the keynote address of the convention was given by Senator Gary Hart of Colorado.  He tells Democrats that they should stand up and be proud that they are part of the Democratic party, the party of helping those of lower income, the party of progressive ideals.  With regards to the actual delegate voting, the Democrats decide to do it a little differently.  First, the nomination goes in for Vice-President.  Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, under the direction of the Gore campaign, nominates Governor Michael Dukakis for Vice-President.  No other candidates are allowed to be nominated to avoid a 1972 fiasco.  After Dukakis is approved as Vice-President, former Senator and father of the nominee, Al Gore Sr. makes a passionate speech nominating his son for President.  On the final night, Al Gore steps on stage and outlines his plan for an America that gives more help to America's families and less reliance on outdated military programs to protect the country.  As the Gore/Dukakis goes up against the Reagan/Bush administration, it looks to be a long campaign.

November 6, 1984

After splitting the wins in the two debates, election day arrives, and Reagan has an average of a 1.5% advantage over Gore.  The election can really be one by either candidate.  This is the year many new election times have been set.  All times are EST.  All states in gray are either too close to call or not done voting.

7:00

Gore: Kentucky and Georgia
Reagan: New Jersey and Connecticut



7:30

Gore: Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island
Reagan: Delaware and South Carolina



By 8:00, it seems Reagan has a definite advantage.  He is up by 3 on the east coast.

8:00



With a solid 7 point win for Reagan in Illinois, it does not look good for the Gore campaign.

9:00



Gore knows it is over as Texas, Michigan, and Ohio are all called for Reagan immediately when voting ends.  Gore waits to concede until all states are done voting.  The only map after this that is going to be displayed after this is the final map because the rest of the maps are pointless as Gore loses in a landslide.  The only surprise for Gore is a win for Indiana.  Reagan does extremely well out West, getting over 60% in California.  Reagan wins the popular vote by seven points, but the electoral college by a much bigger margin as there he has many close wins in the South.

Reagan/Bush: 53%, 358 electoral votes
Gore/Dukakis: 46%, 180 electoral votes

[jokerman]

This is interesting.  I'll follow it.

[ATFFL]

You are way too kind to Mr. Gore.

[True Democrat]

1988:

After losing big in the '86 midterms, the Republicans are ready to rebound.  Vice-President George H. W. Bush announces his candidacy as the first candidate.  Challanging him is Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.  The conservatives do not know which candidate to turn to, as both are pro-choice (Bush never became pro-life after 1980).  Reagan sees that the religious right of the party may nominate a candidate who cannot possibly win, so he comes out and officially endorses Vice-President Bush. 

Red: Bush
Blue: Specter



The Democratic primary is a little bit more split, with three major candidates.  Gore decides not to run.  His running mate, Governor Dukakis decides to run instead.  Also running as longshot candidates are Senator Bill Clinton of Arkansas and newly elected Governor Gary Hart of Colorado.  Iowa is a close win for Dukakis over Hart, while Dukakis reaches nearly 60% in New Hampshire.  It appear Dukakis has the electio wrapped up, but Clinton presents new populist policies.  After New Hampshire is the Southern Super Tuesday, where Clinton takes every state as he campaigns as a Southernor. 

Here is the map so far in the primaries:

Blue: Dukakis
Red: Clinton



Dukakis drops to third in the polls.  Again, the Southern Strategy has worked.  Hart takes many states out West, but it is not enough to defeat Clinton.  Hart campaigns at one point does have momentum, but the only way to defeat Clinton is to win Pennsylvania, which Clinton wins by over 10%.

Blue: Dukakis
Red: Clinton
Green: Hart



At the Democatic convention, Senator Clinton chooses Governor Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, who was shunned by the party in his latest Senate bid for his pro-life views.  Some Democrats are angered at a completely anti-abortion ticket (both support abortion under conditions of rape, incest, mother's health, etc. . .).  Bush, seeing an oppurtunity to win over many social liberals, chooses Representative Olympia Snowe of Maine as his running mate.  She is also pro-choice.  As the campaign progresses, it is eerily similar to 1976.  Clinton comes out with a commanding lead in the South and upper midwest, but does not do well in the northeast or the west.  He has trouble connecting to liberals in the northeast and libertarians in the west.  Clinton continues to run as the Southern candidate.  He has about a 5 point lead going into election day.  Election night results are as follows:

8:00



Bush's 12 point margin in Connecticut scares the Clinton campaign, as New York no longer looks good for them.

9:00



Clinton's surprise 6 point win in Kansas is a huge boost for the Clinton campaign, along with his average of a 12 point margin in most Southern states (South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida are all too close to call).  The bad news for Clinton is that many Northeastern reliably Democrat states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island are still too close to call.

10:00



By this time, it is obvious that Clinton will not win by the margin expected.  He loses every Western state, but many states are too close to call.  The fact taht Rhode Island went for Bush is very bad news for Clinton.  In New York, Clinton is up 10,000 votes, but Staten Island has failed to report so far.  Bush is up by less than a hundred in South Carolina.

11:30



After an hour and a half, finally many states have been called.  The only two states left are New York, where Bush is up 3,000 and South Carolina, where Bush is up 127 votes.  Clinton needs only one of these to win, and Bush needs both.

[True Democrat]

2:30



New York finally finishes and gives Bush a 60,000 vote win after half the votes were finally reported in Long Island, Westchester, Long Island, and a few counties in upstate New York.  At this point, it appears Bush will take South Carolina by about 1,000 votes, but it is still  too close to call.

6:00 (AM)



After an entire night of counting, Clinton pulls out a victory in South Carolina by about 2,000 votes.  D.C. also comes in with Clinton getting over 80%.  When all the votes are counted, it appears the Libertarian candidate gets a resounding 3%, a record for the Libertarian party.

Clinton/Casey: 48%, 271 electoral votes
Bush/Snowe: 48%, 267 electoral votes
Paul/Lewis: 3%

[jokerman]

This is very interesting.  I'm curious how Clinton ended becoming Senator.

[True Democrat]

This is very interesting.  I'm curious how Clinton ended becoming Senator.

Clinton beat  John P. Hammerschmidt in the 1974 election for CD 3.  After John L. McClellan died in office in 1977, Clinton was appointed by Governor Pryor instead of Kaneaster Hodges.  He then won reelection in 1980 and 1986.

[Akno21]

Would Gore really stand a chance running as a four-term congressman, who would be 36 years old at that point?

[True Democrat]

Would Gore really stand a chance running as a four-term congressman, who would be 36 years old at that point?

I realize that, but there were many weak candidates in the primary and the Southern Strategy finally worked.  He was young for the primaries, but he had a come from behind victory.

[Colin]

August 14, 1984

the neoconservative wing of the Republican party

Considering that neo-Conservatives at this time were around 10 guys at a small Washington thinktank I don't think that the Democrats would have rallied against the "neoconservative wing of the Republican Party". The word neoconservative only really began to be used after 1992, especially after the first Gulf War, and the philosophy grew throughout the 1990's.

1988:

Reagan sees that the religious right of the party may nominate a candidate who cannot possibly win

The religious right of the Republican Party, in 1988? At this time the so-called "Religious Right" did not have that much power within the party and were no where near as strong as they are now. Also they weren't a major primary block at that time, as they are now. This can be shown by Pat Robertson's bad showing in the 1988 primary. Also if both stayed pro-life I find it odd that Robertson or somebody of that nature would get into the primary race.