Emerson College: Sanders surging nationally, Trump ahead

[Tender Branson]

Note that this poll is 2 weeks old. A new poll will be released in Mid-September.

Dems:

54% Clinton
33% Sanders
  9% Biden
  2% O'Malley
  1% Webb
  1% Chafee

GOP:

31% Trump
15% Bush
13% Walker
  8% Cruz
  6% Huckabee
  5% Carson
  4% Paul
  4% Rubio
  3% Fiorina
  2% Kasich
  2% Christie
  all others below 1%
  7% Undecided

Caller ID: The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted Sunday July 26 through
Tuesday July 28. The polling sample for the Democratic and the GOP primary consisted of 476
and 481 likely voters respectively, with a margin of error of +/-4.4% and a 95% confidence
level. The General Election sample consisted of 950 likely voters with a margin of error of
+/-3.1% and a 95% confidence level. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response
(IVR) system. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theeecps.com.

[Tender Branson]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

[Mr. Morden]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

I don't think so.  You might want to read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

[Tender Branson]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

I don't think so.  You might want to read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

(chart)

I know that article, but campaigns do not always play along "math", but develop their own dynamics. This whole assumption in that article is based on "logic" and "math", but what also matters are feelings of voters. If Hillary goes down in flames after IA and NH, she could lose everything after that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That may be right, but you are underestimating the African American loyalty to the Clintons.

That may be starting to change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250686-booker-sanders-has-long-record-of-civil-rights

[Simfan34]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

I don't think so.  You might want to read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Is it just me, or is Washington missing from that list?

[Brittain33]

That may be right, but you are underestimating the African American loyalty to the Clintons.

That may be starting to change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250686-booker-sanders-has-long-record-of-civil-rights

Cory Booker has an unusual biography and path to elected office and his views aren't really representative.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Morden - while the conclusion of Iowa and NH being his best states is accurate, the methodology is clearly flawed. Is Nevada not expected to be the 3rd state still? Perhaps I'm wrong, but my gut feeling is that the Clark County unions could pull out a caucus for Sanders if he had momentum - depends a bit on Hispanic turnout, but would that not be surprising? He may not get all the delegates, but three straight wins would be something (if only a pipe dream).

[Mr. Morden]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

I don't think so.  You might want to read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Is it just me, or is Washington missing from that list?

It's based on 2008 Democratic primary exit polls, and I think they didn't bother with exit polls in many of the caucus states.

[Famous Mortimer]

That may be right, but you are underestimating the African American loyalty to the Clintons.

That may be starting to change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250686-booker-sanders-has-long-record-of-civil-rights

Wow. Booker is like the most right-wing Senate Dem. Maybe he really is positioning himself to be Sanders VP.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

This kind of confirms the NH poll. If this trend continues, he will be able to carry IA as well. After that, though...

If he wins IA and NH, we can bank on Hillary's campaign collapsing and the big mo' on Sanders side. And he might start winning states that looked "inevitable" for Hilldog ...

I don't think so.  You might want to read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

The same site that stated that the Bernie Surge was over just a day before Bernie starts leading in a New Hampshire poll?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That may be right, but you are underestimating the African American loyalty to the Clintons.

That may be starting to change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250686-booker-sanders-has-long-record-of-civil-rights

Wow. Booker is like the most right-wing Senate Dem. Maybe he really is positioning himself to be Sanders VP.

Booker has turned out to be a better Senator than I thought he'd be.