Turkey General election - November 1st 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what if he intends to poison his tea?

[ag]

But what if he intends to poison his tea?

Even then

I doubt Davutoglu would be the first choice of Erdoganista AK rank-and-file.

[Zanas]

An average of two recent September polls (one having a 15,000 sample !) and another 2-week old poll that seem in line with these gives the following figures :

AKP 43.5
CHP 27
MHP 14.3
HDP 11.7
Others 3.5

So the HDP actually loses support, and AKP regains a bit, but these figures are actually pretty close to what polling seemed like a week before the June election. And HDP could still end up with more seats than MHP with these.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Turkey’s governing AK Party drops in latest poll by Sonar Arastirma ahead of Nov. 1 repeat election, according to Gazeteport.
Results:
AKP 38.2% (vs 41% at June 7 election)
CHP 28%
MHP 18.2%
HDP 13.7%

[Zanas]

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Turkey’s governing AK Party drops in latest poll by Sonar Arastirma ahead of Nov. 1 repeat election, according to Gazeteport.
Results:
AKP 38.2% (vs 41% at June 7 election)
CHP 28%
MHP 18.2%
HDP 13.7%

Yeah, but another poll today (Andy-Ar) doesn't tell the same story :
AKP 42.9    
CHP 27.0    
MHP 15.9    
HDP 12.8    
Others 1.4

That's with undecideds proportionally redistributed, though, so to be taken with a grain of salt.

Looking a bit back, it seems Sonar consistently overestimates the MHP.

So far, none of the Big Four has made successful inroads. The war on the HDP launched by Erdogan these last days (a hundred of their offices nationwide have been attacked by AKP frindly thugs) seems to have no effect on the voting intentions.

[jaichind]

Gezici poll has

AKP         39.8%       246
CHP         28.2%      140
MHP        17.3%         87
HDP         12.3%        77

In the June 2015 election Gezici seems to under-poll AKP and over-poll CHP by about 2%.  If so then AKP will make a small gain from June 2015 but not enough for a majority.  Of course all this stuff with Russia violating Turkey airspace might rally the nationalist vote behind AKP.

[Zanas]

Gezici tensd to underpoll AKP, and Erdogan isn't amused.

Overall, the latest polls don't show any significant shift from the June results.

[jaichind]

Andy-AR poll 

AKP        42.6%
CHP        27.1%
MHP       15.2%
HDP        12.1%

Seems consistent with a small swing toward AKP narrative.  Most likely not enough for majority.

[Zanas]

A bombing just occurred during a left-wing rally in Ankara, causing 30+ deaths. HDP have suspended all their election rallies for now. Not sure how all this situation will play out. Could HDP call for a boycott ? Granted, the bombing is not directly the work of Erdogan or the AKP, but the hostile atmosphere that they have instilled these last months is in part responsible, at least.

[jaichind]

Metropoll's Ozer Sencar predicts AKP vote at 42.5% which means it will barely fall short of majority.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/turkey-s-ak-party-weighs-chp-coalition-to-avoid-another-deadlock

Looks like AKP is warming to the idea of a post-election coalition with CHP.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Turkey’s ruling AK Party, or AKP, seen little changed since last election on June 7, according to BusinessHT, reporting results of a poll by Konda.
Main opposition CHP rises to 30.4%
Nationalist MHP at 14.3%
Pro-Kurdish HDP falls to 11.8%

[jaichind]

All the final polls does point to a surge for AKP.  The most dramatic is A&G poll which had AKP at 47.2%. A&G was pretty close to the mark back in June.  The momentum seems to be on the AKP side so it seems clear to me that AKP should gain seats from relative to June 2015 and there is significant chance of getting a majority.

[Zanas]

Well, not really. We've had polls ranging AKP from 38% to 44% throughout August, September and October, with no discernable trend. Same goes for CHP (25% to 28%, one outlier at 30%), for MHP (13% to 18%, mostly 14 or 15), and for HDP (11% to 14%, mostly 12-13), and again throughout most of August, September and October.

I think it is therefore safe to say that that one only poll showing AKP at 47% when they've never been higher than 44% since early August is a) an outlier, b) a manipulation. Oh, surprise ! A&G haven't polled the November race yet ! They're coming with a final prediction without a track record. From June, I can only find their seat-count prediction, not their voting intention one.

There are five final polls : ORC, Metropoll, Gezici, A&G and Konda. That's excluding a Kurd-Tek poll from Oct 21, which obviously overpolls HDP a bit at the expense of AKP. That's also excluding a mega AKAM poll from Oct 20 with a sample of 24,500 !!! So the arithmetic mean of these 5 final polls gives this :
AKP 43.7
CHP 26.5
MHP 14.3
HDP 12.8
Others 2.7

The Konda one seems a bit too favorable to the opposition, with AKP at 41.7, CHP at 27.9 and HDP at 13.8. The A&G one has the AKP at 47.2. If you exclude those two, then the three remaining ones tell a quite consistent story (with variation from June result in brackets) :
AKP 43.2 (+2.5)
CHP 26.5 (+1.4)
MHP 14.6 (-1.9)
HDP 12.6 (-0.4)
Others 3.2

I'd hardly call that a surge for AKP. Probably a bunch of tactical voters from MHP switching to AKP, plus a small boost in legitimist turnout for the party in power. The most recent seat prediction based on a poll resembling something like this is the Betimar poll from Oct 20, which had the AKP and HDP at one point higher than these numbers, and CHP and MHP one point below. This Betimar projection gave the AKP a 6-seat absolute majority, and the HDP (nearly tied with the MHP) 18 seats more than the MHP. So if we took our above 3-poll mean, we could be on a razor thin majority, or just below. Should be interesting.

Anyway, the dice are cast now, wait and see.

[tpfkaw]

Probably a bunch of tactical voters from MHP switching to AKP

MHP and its voters strongly prefer CHP to AKP.

[jaichind]

Probably a bunch of tactical voters from MHP switching to AKP

MHP and its voters strongly prefer CHP to AKP.

You think so?  With this anti-KPP polarization the AKP is counting on MHP marginal voters going over to AKP.   

[tpfkaw]

Probably a bunch of tactical voters from MHP switching to AKP

MHP and its voters strongly prefer CHP to AKP.

You think so?  With this anti-KPP polarization the AKP is counting on MHP marginal voters going over to AKP.   

Of course, but marginal voters are a different group entirely from "tactical voters."

[Famous Mortimer]

Not to mention the MHP's campaign was fairly Islam-y last time.

[jaichind]

Well, not really. We've had polls ranging AKP from 38% to 44% throughout August, September and October, with no discernable trend. Same goes for CHP (25% to 28%, one outlier at 30%), for MHP (13% to 18%, mostly 14 or 15), and for HDP (11% to 14%, mostly 12-13), and again throughout most of August, September and October.

I think it is therefore safe to say that that one only poll showing AKP at 47% when they've never been higher than 44% since early August is a) an outlier, b) a manipulation. Oh, surprise ! A&G haven't polled the November race yet ! They're coming with a final prediction without a track record. From June, I can only find their seat-count prediction, not their voting intention one.

There are five final polls : ORC, Metropoll, Gezici, A&G and Konda. That's excluding a Kurd-Tek poll from Oct 21, which obviously overpolls HDP a bit at the expense of AKP. That's also excluding a mega AKAM poll from Oct 20 with a sample of 24,500 !!! So the arithmetic mean of these 5 final polls gives this :
AKP 43.7
CHP 26.5
MHP 14.3
HDP 12.8
Others 2.7

The Konda one seems a bit too favorable to the opposition, with AKP at 41.7, CHP at 27.9 and HDP at 13.8. The A&G one has the AKP at 47.2. If you exclude those two, then the three remaining ones tell a quite consistent story (with variation from June result in brackets) :
AKP 43.2 (+2.5)
CHP 26.5 (+1.4)
MHP 14.6 (-1.9)
HDP 12.6 (-0.4)
Others 3.2

I'd hardly call that a surge for AKP. Probably a bunch of tactical voters from MHP switching to AKP, plus a small boost in legitimist turnout for the party in power. The most recent seat prediction based on a poll resembling something like this is the Betimar poll from Oct 20, which had the AKP and HDP at one point higher than these numbers, and CHP and MHP one point below. This Betimar projection gave the AKP a 6-seat absolute majority, and the HDP (nearly tied with the MHP) 18 seats more than the MHP. So if we took our above 3-poll mean, we could be on a razor thin majority, or just below. Should be interesting.

Anyway, the dice are cast now, wait and see.

Well when I say surge I really did mean a 2-3% movement toward AKP.  When the polls did not move at all since June a shift of 2%-3% I do count as a surge.  Distribution will make a difference. AKP will lose votes in the Southeast but if they are polling 2%-3% better than June then they will cleanup in major population centers in the rest of Turkey and get a bunch of seats.  AKP will for sure gain seats and looks likely to win a majority.  When all the polls show a movement toward a party toward the end of an election I tend to pick the one with the largest move since the others might not have picked up the size of the momentum of the move.  If we were to do that AKP is in solid shape to win a majority, perhaps a solid one.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/turkey-takeover-turns-opposition-papers-pro-government-overnight

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/turkey-takeover-turns-opposition-papers-pro-government-overnight

That's just lame for Erdogan

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  There is a blackout by the election board on election results.  I guess we have to wait an hour or so for results.

[jaichind]

10.8% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP    60%       403
CHP    11%        99
MHP     8.3%       0
HDP    15.4%     48

Of course it is in the form of Party 1 2 3 4.

[jaichind]

13.8% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     59.2%   397
CHP    11.5%    104
MHP     8.6%       0
HDP    15.6%     49

[jaichind]

21.3% of the vote in
          

          votes       seats
AKP     57.5%   383
CHP    14.3%    116
MHP     9.8%       0
HDP    13.5%     51

Back in June with 16% of the vote counted AKP was at 50%.  Looks like AKP will gain votes/seats for sure and now it seems a majority is very likely if not a lock.   A best guess at this stage is that AKP will be headed toward around 300 seats.  MHP will cross 10% of course.