Turkey General election - November 1st 2015

[jaichind]

Talks between AKP and CHP collapsed.  Looks like we are headed for another election this year.     Both the Lira TRY and the Istanbul markets fell on this news on the perception that a new election will not meaningfully change the results.

[jaichind]

The AKP position is that MHP support from the outside a minority AKP government for some time before new elections.  The MHP position was that it would be a coalition with MHP inside the government.  Neither would budge so we are looking at new elections.

[Famous Mortimer]

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.

[DavidB.]

More proof the AKP is power mad.

This.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To be fair the MHP is a particularly nasty group that would push any sense of meaningful resolution to The Kurd Crisis into an ever less likely position.

[jaichind]

Looks like Erdogan will push for a new presidency-based constitution as part of this snap election which will take place in Oct or Nov 2015.  He claims that since he is Turkey's first president to be chosen by popular vote this should also mean a shifting of ownership and responsibilities to reflect this popular mandate.   

[Simfan34]

What a convenient power grab. One almost suspects this was planned the whole time.

[Famous Mortimer]

To be fair the MHP is a particularly nasty group that would push any sense of meaningful resolution to The Kurd Crisis into an ever less likely position.

Current government policy couldn't be more anti-Kurd. I doubt that is the AKP's concern.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Eh, Kurds and their indies used to be reliable support for the AKP though due to their distrust of the CHP. Now, following the AKP's failures in the peace process and especially their behaviour towards the IS; the AKP have begun to burn their bridges. An alliance with MHP would solidify this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Erdogan must be stopped.

[Simfan34]

Erdogan must be stopped.

Spoiler: he won't. No point in saying it.

[Хahar 🤔]

My (admittedly baseless) suspicion is that a second election would see a flow of MHP votes toward the AKP in the interests of stability. It's not as if there's any other possible governing party; the notion of a CHP government is absurd. With whom would they govern, the Kurds?

Erdogan must be stopped.

I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Congrats, we are witnessing the rise of dictator Recep Tayip Erdogan.

[Velasco]

Erdogan must be stopped.

I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

I couldn't agree more.

[Simfan34]

Erdogan must be stopped.

I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

I couldn't agree more.

Yes, absolutely.

[Famous Mortimer]

My (admittedly baseless) suspicion is that a second election would see a flow of MHP votes toward the AKP in the interests of stability. It's not as if there's any other possible governing party; the notion of a CHP government is absurd. With whom would they govern, the Kurds?

Erdogan must be stopped.

I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

MHP are not the Sweden Democrats. MHP has sat in centre-left coalitions before. Also, unlike the SDs, Justice and Development was perfectly willing to accept outside support from the MHP, so their objection obviously isn't that MHP is too extreme.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MHP are not the Sweden Democrats.

That's true. They're much worse.

[DavidB.]

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

... wow ... are you for real? You do know that the MHP is surely a hell of a lot more fascist than SD? And you do know that unlike Moderaterna, the AKP doesn't exactly have a stellar record on preserving fundamental rights, such as the freedom of press? Once Moderaterna get back into power and they block Twitter, turn the whole judicial apparatus to their side, intimidate journalists, and oppress some minorities, then you could get back to me with this crazy comparison.

[Хahar 🤔]

You do know that the MHP is surely a hell of a lot more fascist than SD?

Yes, I agree with this. This is a point in favor of what I was saying. Criticizing a party for refusing to go into coalition with the MHP (which, again, is vile) makes no sense at all.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My (admittedly baseless) suspicion is that a second election would see a flow of MHP votes toward the AKP in the interests of stability. It's not as if there's any other possible governing party; the notion of a CHP government is absurd. With whom would they govern, the Kurds?

Erdogan must be stopped.

I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

MHP are not the Sweden Democrats. MHP has sat in centre-left coalitions before. Also, unlike the SDs, Justice and Development was perfectly willing to accept outside support from the MHP, so their objection obviously isn't that MHP is too extreme.

That's more of a condemnation of the so-called "centre left" of Turkey and modern Kemalists than proof that MHP are fluffy bunnies.

People are rightfully pissed and worried about Erdogan, but one must consider the context where he rose to power...

[Nhoj]

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

... wow ... are you for real? You do know that the MHP is surely a hell of a lot more fascist than SD? And you do know that unlike Moderaterna, the AKP doesn't exactly have a stellar record on preserving fundamental rights, such as the freedom of press? Once Moderaterna get back into power and they block Twitter, turn the whole judicial apparatus to their side, intimidate journalists, and oppress some minorities, then you could get back to me with this crazy comparison.

Its not like CHP has a good record on such fundamental rights either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In fact no Turkish party that has ever formed part of a government does. I dislike the AKP and a lot of nasty things can be said about aspects of their rule (particularly in recent years) but when people talk about Turkey there's a often strange amnesia about what Turkish political life was like before they took power (i.e. from your standard issue boilerplate 'liberal' perspective things were certainly not better back then).

[DC Al Fine]

I know nothing about Turkish politics.

Can someone give a brief explanation of the major parties, issues, demographics etc?

[Famous Mortimer]

I know nothing about Turkish politics.

Can someone give a brief explanation of the major parties, issues, demographics etc?

Justice and Development Party (AKP) - started as a moderate splinter of the Welfare Party, an Islamist party that briefly held power in the 90s before being banned under pressure from the military. Originally they presented themselves as the Muslim equivalent of Christian democratic parties in Europe. Lately though, they have been becoming increasingly authoritarian and conservative. In terms of economics, they are fairly statist, having undertaken many public works projects. Their base is the rural poor although they have a significant amount of support in Istanbul as well, where President Ergodan was mayor. Comparable parties: Somewhere between Merkel's CDU and United Russia.

Republican People's Party (CHP) - traces its history back to the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The party's main ideology is Kemalism, which means secularism, respect for the military's role in politics, and a form of nationalism that rejects ethnicity (ie Kurdish desire to break away) Today the party is also nominally social democratic but that means less in Turkey even than it does in Europe. However, under the current leader, there has been some attempt to change that, to make it a more generic social democratic party and to drop the support for the military and (even less successfully so far) the opposition to Kurdish nationalism. Its main base of support is the big cities of Istanbul and Ankara and along the coasts, as well as around military bases and universities. Comparable parties: Maybe PASOK.

Nationalist Action Party, alternatively translated as Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) - Started as the political wing of the Grey Wolves, a right-wing paramilitary active during the 70s which carried out several terrorist attacks back and forth against Communist groups. They were likely funded by the military and eventually the military stepped in to solve the fighting by having a coup and banning all political activity in 1980. The Grey Wolves were also likely funded by NATO as a contingency plan against a possible Communist take over of Turkey. With Communism no longer an issue, the party is primarily focused on opposing peace with the Kurds, pissing off Armenia, and the fantastical plans to merge with Azerbajian and Turkmenistan. Also, just in the last campaign, it embraced a sort of soft Islamism, after years of being secular to ambivalent. I have no idea what demographic this party attracts. No one seems to know. Presumably right-wingers who don't like Erdogan for whatever reason. Comparable parties: The Serbian Radical Party or one of those Slovak nationalist parties that propped up the social democratic government there.

People's Democratic Party (HDP) - Just like Islamist parties, Turkey has a long history of banning Kurdish parties which only come back and reform under a new name right after being banned. The latest is the People's Democratic Party. It's a little bit different in that it has made a legitimately attempt to appeal to non-Kurds. It has the most left-wing platform, both economically and socially, of any major party. Not only does it have quotas for the number of women candidates it fields, it even has a quota for gay candidates. Its main base is Kurdish areas (obviously) but it also does well in hipster parts of Istanbul. Comparable parties: SYRIZA, PODEMOS.

No other party came close to passing the insanely high 10% threshold in the last election but a couple of other historically significant parties are the Democratic Party (conservative party who were either moderate Kemalists or moderate Islamists who feign Kemalism), the Democratic Left Party (more explicitly social democrat, less pro-military splinter from the Republican People's Party), and the Felicity Party (representing the more hardcore wing of the banned Welfare Party).

[Хahar 🤔]

PASOK seems to me to be a very strange comparison for the AKP. Given that Kemalism is so nakedly francophilic, the only comparison that makes sense for a Kemalist party is the Radical Party of old. The main distinguishing factor of the CHP is its strident commitment to laïcité, which is of course very different from what we anglophones recognize as secularism. By contrast, democracy is (at least in practice) not an important tenet of Kemalist ideology.

The MHP's appeal is very simple; it is the party of extreme Turkish nationalists. Historically they have been irreligious because Turkish nationalism under Atatürk and thereafter has always opposed Islam as both foreign and non-Western. Now that the AKP has been permitted to win a few elections it has become clear that most Turks do not necessarily have any particular interest in proclaiming the death of God, and so the far-right has had to adapt. The MHP bears no real similarities to the AKP, which (whatever its faults might be) has never constructed its appeal to voters around Turkish nationalism.