Turkey General election - November 1st 2015
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  Turkey General election - November 1st 2015
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Author Topic: Turkey General election - November 1st 2015  (Read 20783 times)
palandio
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« Reply #25 on: August 18, 2015, 04:21:34 AM »

Istanbul as a whole is not a hipster metropolis. In fact its demographics (and the demographics of other fast-growing cities like Konya) are shaped to a large degree by internal migrants from rural areas that are now living mostly in the relatively new quarters on the city's margins for nine or ten months of a year. Most of these migrants vote AKP like their cousins that remain in the Anatolian village for the whole year.
On the other hand a relevant part of these internal migrants is Kurdish. Many (probably most) of them vote HDP and they make up a big part of the HDP's support base in Istanbul.
The HDP to some degree resembles EH Bildu imho. Very leftist and progressivist program, allegations of ties to separatist terrorists etc. On the other hand EH Bildu hasn't yet tried to court left-wing voters outside of its claimed territory.
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Velasco
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« Reply #26 on: August 18, 2015, 09:10:10 AM »
« Edited: August 18, 2015, 09:17:46 AM by Velasco »

On the other hand EH Bildu hasn't yet tried to court left-wing voters outside of its claimed territory.

That is a significant difference and it's highly unlikely that EH Bildu ever tries to court voters outside Euskal Herria (Euskadi, Navarre and the French Basque Country, i.e. the territories that would constitute the independent Basque state) in national elections. However, in EP elections Spain constitutes a single constituency. In order to garner some votes from other regions, in 2014 EH Bildu allied with other peripheral nationalists such as the Galician BNG. In the 2009 EP elections left-wing Basque separatists were banned from running, due to alleged ties to ETA. They opted to endorse list including a bunch of far-left extra-parliamentary organisations throughout Spain.  

Another one is that Kurdish nationalists (BDP, currently Democratic Regions Party or DBP) don't advocate for an independent Kurdistan in SE Turkey, but focus their demands on regional autonomy and the recognition of Kurdish language, culture and identity. Dropping claims for independence can be seen (arguably) as a tactical move in order to survive pressure from the Turkish state, but in any case that turn is prior to the establishment of the HDP and also concerns the PKK. Since his capture, Abdullah Öcalan has abandoned Marxism-Leninism and advocates for a special form of "democratic confederalism".  

Formally the HDP is a Turkish party -with a strong Kurd component, obviously- that embraces the cause of ethnic and religious minorities, women and marginalised groups -LGTB people, for instance- throughout Turkey. Quoting the Wikipedia, the HDP aims to "overcome the traditional Turkish versus Kurdish divide" as well "collectively represent people of all ethnic or religious backgrounds and to safeguard their civil liberties by bringing about direct democracy and an end to capitalist exploitation" and of course "increase democratic representation and decentralisation of power".
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2015, 07:01:04 AM »

Explosion Heard Near Dolmabahce Palace,  now a museum, in Istanbul.  Hurriyet reports sounds of gunfire at palace’s entrance gate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2015, 07:21:08 AM »

Erdogan said today that "We are once again swiftly heading towards an election."

It seems the common assumption in the US media is that Erdogan will try to war on PKK to discredit and paint the HDP as a terrorist outfit so to push them below 10%.  I very much doubt this is what Erdogan is up to mainly because it will not work.  Whatever Kurdish votes the AKP got in June is now gone over to HDP so there is no way HDP gets pushed below 10%.  What Erdogan must be up to in my view is to accept that HDP will sweep the remaining AKP seats in Kurdish areas (there are not that many anyway) but AKP can use the crisis to push down HDP  vote in Western and Central Turkey urban areas well as capture CHP and MHP votes in places like Ankara, İstanbul and Izmir.  He will count on that fact that the CHP and MHP voter will be for unity of the Turkish state and seeing that there is no hope of a coalition of CHP nor MHP with AKP will vote AKP to preserve the unity of the Turkish nation-state, especially in a time of conflict with PKK.  He will also try to completely capture the vote of parties like Felicity Party which won 2% back in June.  I am not sure this will work but this is cleary what Erdogan must be up to.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2015, 11:34:51 AM »

CHP is now saying unless Erdogan gives CHP a chance to form a government CHP will refuse to participate in the upcoming election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2015, 04:25:25 AM »

Turkey's election board proposes Nov. 1 as possible date for snap polls
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politicus
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« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2015, 04:33:51 AM »

CHP is now saying unless Erdogan gives CHP a chance to form a government CHP will refuse to participate in the upcoming election.

Who would benefit the most if they did boycott it?
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2015, 04:42:30 AM »

CHP is now saying unless Erdogan gives CHP a chance to form a government CHP will refuse to participate in the upcoming election.

Who would benefit the most if they did boycott it?

AKP of course.  AKP will pretty much win by default if CHP does not participate.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2015, 04:46:57 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2015, 04:54:47 AM by Famous Mortimer »

Yeah, the AKP would win a massively landslide. That's pretty obvious.

A more interesting question is who would take the CHP's votes. Probably some would go to the MHP, some to the HDP and some to the Democratic Left Party or maybe even the Anatolia Party (CHP splinter which opposed shift from Kemalism to social democracy). CHP voters are, after all, not very attached to the party. It was replaced by the Democratic Left Party and out of parliament for a good chunk of the 90s.
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politicus
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« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2015, 04:50:28 AM »

CHP is now saying unless Erdogan gives CHP a chance to form a government CHP will refuse to participate in the upcoming election.

Who would benefit the most if they did boycott it?

AKP of course.  AKP will pretty much win by default if CHP does not participate.

Okay, I was wondering whether it would give the Democratic Left Party a chance to get in?

Is the CHP base loyal enough to the party, that most would stay home, or would a majority of their votes go to other parties?
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politicus
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« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2015, 04:52:12 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2015, 04:53:44 AM by politicus »


A more interesting question is who would take the CHP's votes.

That is was I was asking about. Benefit = get votes.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2015, 06:15:08 AM »

Explosion Heard Near Dolmabahce Palace,  now a museum, in Istanbul.  Hurriyet reports sounds of gunfire at palace’s entrance gate.

Any updates on this?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2015, 06:16:51 AM »

While the Turkish government is obviously insane, the Turkish far-left are behaving like idiots. The US would like to remain neutral but they're being pushed into backing the government via all these bombings.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2015, 06:32:54 AM »

Explosion Heard Near Dolmabahce Palace,  now a museum, in Istanbul.  Hurriyet reports sounds of gunfire at palace’s entrance gate.

Any updates on this?

They arrested 40+ radical leftists. Looks like this is the work of the extreme left.
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2015, 09:57:45 AM »

Snap election schedule for Nov 1.  It is interesting that both of the Greece-Turkey rivals will now have 2 elections each in 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: August 26, 2015, 06:18:13 AM »

Metropoll

AKP   41.7
CHP   25.5
MHP   15.7
HDP   14.7

There is talk that this time AKP will ally with Saadet Party or BBP or both.  Together they won 2.06% of the vote in the last election.
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Zanas
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« Reply #41 on: August 26, 2015, 09:57:02 AM »

So, things pretty much unchanged, Others a bit down, AKP slightly up, HDP up a little more. The AKP going on Kurds as terrorists may win them a few moderates, but may also trigger a solidarity vote in the Southeast. HDP could well end up raising their vote share and losing a few seats in Istanbul, while not gaining as much in the Southeast.
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: August 26, 2015, 10:02:32 AM »

So, things pretty much unchanged, Others a bit down, AKP slightly up, HDP up a little more. The AKP going on Kurds as terrorists may win them a few moderates, but may also trigger a solidarity vote in the Southeast. HDP could well end up raising their vote share and losing a few seats in Istanbul, while not gaining as much in the Southeast.

At this stage the AKP should really accept that all their seats in Kurdish SE area (around 9-10) are going to be all gone.  So they have to gain 30+ elsewhere from AKP and MHP with some gains from HDP in urban areas.  Not sure they can do it but there is a viable path for AKP.
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Zanas
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« Reply #43 on: August 26, 2015, 10:34:48 AM »

Two other polls are pretty recent and of some use (another one is a CHP internal, not very outlier-y, but outlier-ish) :

AKAM, released August 24th :

AKP 39.7    
CHP 28.5    
MHP 12.6    
HDP 14.8    
Others 4.4

They also give the AK Party at 250, the CHP at 144, HDP at 88 and MHP at 68.

Gezici, released August 18th :

AKP 39.2    
CHP 26.4    
MHP 16.2    
HDP 14.1    
Others 4.1

If we average those three recent polls, we get (with variations from the actual June result) :

AKP 40.2 (-0.7)
CHP 26.8 (+1.85)
MHP 14.8 (-1.46)
HDP 14.5 (+1.41)
Others 3.6 (-1.1)

Also interesting, the AKAM poll asked who was to blame for the coalition talks' failure, with multiple answers possible :

President Erdogan : 79% (!!)
AK Party: 65.3
CHP: 40.2
MHP: 45.3
All: 15.9

31% of MHP voters disagreed with their party's stance in the talks, compared to 4% of HDP's, 3% CHP and 14% AKP. Hence their (relative) drop in support I guess.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #44 on: August 26, 2015, 10:26:24 PM »

Metropoll�

AKP   41.7
CHP   25.5
MHP   15.7
HDP   14.7

There is talk that this time AKP will ally with Saadet Party or BBP or both.  Together they won 2.06% of the vote in the last election.

Saadet Party is the Felicity Party, the more hardcore wing of the old National Order/Welfare/Virtue Party from which AKP itself emerged. So it would basically be a reunification of the Necmettin Erbakan/Milli Görüş movement.

BBP is the Great Union Party an explicitly Islamist breakaway of the Nationalist Movement Party.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: August 27, 2015, 08:49:21 PM »

Gezici poll/seat projection

AKP   38.9%   240 seats
CHP   27.8%   142 seats
MHP   16.3%    85 seats
HDP   13.1%    83 seats

It seems that things are not going to Erdogan's plan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: August 29, 2015, 07:57:53 AM »

PM Davutoglu says internal AKP polling shows that AKP will win 45% of the vote.
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politicus
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« Reply #47 on: August 29, 2015, 08:09:39 AM »

PM Davutoglu says internal AKP polling shows that AKP will win 45% of the vote.

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #48 on: August 29, 2015, 09:53:42 AM »

Well he might... but I wouldn't if I were in his shoes. Instead I would brief that things were worryingly close: rally to the polls to defeat the old guard people!
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ag
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« Reply #49 on: August 29, 2015, 10:01:13 AM »

Well he might... but I wouldn't if I were in his shoes. Instead I would brief that things were worryingly close: rally to the polls to defeat the old guard people!

Is it obvious that Davutoglu wants a strong victory? A result like the last one, which, finally, installs him as a coalition PM, makes him the Turkish leader. An outright victory keeps him Erdogan's second fiddle.
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