Turkey General election - November 1st 2015

[jaichind]

24.4% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     56.8%   353
CHP    15.4%    106
MHP    10.1%      41
HDP    12.9%     51

[jaichind]

26.7% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     56.3%   350
CHP    16.1%    106
MHP    10.4%      43
HDP    12.4%     51

[jaichind]

28.6% of the vote in
          

          votes       seats
AKP     55.9%   347
CHP    16.6%    107
MHP    10.6%      44
HDP    12.0%     52

Looks like unlike June 2015 the Kurdish areas are being counted earlier than rest of Turkey.  HDP started high and then now is slowing falling off when in June 2015 it was the opposite.

[jaichind]

33.7% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     55.1%   338
CHP    17.9%    113
MHP    11.0%      47
HDP    11.3%     52

Back in June 2015 with 31% of the vote counted AKP was at around 47%.

[jaichind]

39.2% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     54.4%   337
CHP    18.7%    115
MHP    11.0%      45
HDP    11.6%     53

[jaichind]

51.9% of the vote in
          

          votes       seats
AKP     53.1%   331
CHP    20.9%    119
MHP    11.1%     46
HDP    11.0%     54

Back in June 2015 with 54% of the vote counted it was AKP at 45%.  So using that as the trendsetter AKP is on track to get around 49% of the vote, very similar to 2011.

[jaichind]

Looks like AKP is gaining votes in Kurdish areas which is a surprise.  Some of it is from CHP and MHP which makes sense.  But there seems to be a swing away from HDP toward AKP in Kurdish areas as well.  It seems that anti-PKK Kurdish moderates are going to AKP this time.

[jaichind]

68.6% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     51.9%   328
CHP    22.5%    122
MHP    11.4%     44
HDP    10.5%     56

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Looks like the HDP is at serious risk of not meeting the threshold, so congrats to the AKP majority I geuss.

[jaichind]

Looking at places where votes are not counted AKP and CHP will gain votes and HDP will lose votes.  Yes.  HDP will now risk not making it past 10%. 

[jaichind]

76.0% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     51.4%   326
CHP    23.1%    124
MHP    11.6%     44
HDP    10.4%     56

[jaichind]

If HDP falls below 10% then AKP will pick up a significant part the HDP seats since in Kurdish areas AKP came in second almost everywhere to HDP.

[jaichind]

Looks like AKP successfully SNP-ized HDP to get strong swings across the board.

[jaichind]

78.8% of the vote in
         

          votes       seats
AKP     51.1%   326
CHP    24.3%    125
MHP    11.6%     43
HDP    10.3%     56

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nuke Turkey

[Beezer]

Looks like AKP is gaining votes in Kurdish areas which is a surprise.  Some of it is from CHP and MHP which makes sense.  But there seems to be a swing away from HDP toward AKP in Kurdish areas as well.  It seems that anti-PKK Kurdish moderates are going to AKP this time.

Or AKP is just rigging the election, which given Erdogan's recent actions does not seem all that far-fetched.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Nuke Turkey

You'll ruin Thanksgiving dinner doing that. You're supposed to roast it nice and slow after gutting it. No one likes eating spongy turkey

Looks like AKP successfully SNP-ized HDP to get strong swings across the board.

So is this AKP gain mostly "STRONG ON DEFENSE"? I haven't been following Turkey since the June elections thread.

[/]

Will HDP make the threshold?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Via Rudaw:

"83.6 percent of votes have been counted across 81 provinces in Turkey, and the results are as follows: AKP 50.7 percent, HDP 10.2 percent, CHP 23.8 percent and MHP 11.7 percent."

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

NTV says their projections of HDP falling below the threshold may have been the result of a technical glitch from the results of a strong HDP region out east.  With 91.4% in, HDP is at 10.3% according to Avrupa

[tpfkaw]

Looks like AKP is gaining votes in Kurdish areas which is a surprise.  Some of it is from CHP and MHP which makes sense.  But there seems to be a swing away from HDP toward AKP in Kurdish areas as well.  It seems that anti-PKK Kurdish moderates are going to AKP this time.

Even nationalist Kurds would prefer AKP to be in government alone rather than a coalition with CHP or MHP.

[jaichind]

Nov. 1 (AFP) -- Clashes broke out between Turkish police and Kurdish militants in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir after Sunday's election appeared to deliver a clear victory to the Justice and Development Party (AKP), an AFP photographer said.
The fighting erupted outside the headquarters of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), which latest results say won slightly over 10 percent of the vote, just enough to scrape into parliament.

[jaichind]

Nov. 1 (AFP) -- Pro-Kurdish HDP clears threshold to win parliament seats in Turkey vote: TV

[DavidB.]

So the polls were very much off. Are they just trash, was the last minute AKP surge simply very strong (if so, why?), or could it be that electoral fraud has been more widespread than last time?

[tpfkaw]

99.9% reporting

Party|Vote %|Change %|Seats|Change seats
----------------------------------------
AKP  |49.3  |+8.3    |316  |+58
CHP  |25.4  |+0.4    |132  |+ 2
MHP  |12.0  |-4.3    | 41  |-39
HDP  |10.6  |-2.6    | 59  |-21

Turnout 87.4 (+1.0)