Hamilton County, Ohio

[ElectionsGuy]

I thought Hamilton, OH would be an interesting county to see broken down. Its an interesting county because it anchors a big city, yet was once solidly Republican. As the urban rural divide came more and more into effect, the margins become smaller and smaller and eventually turned blue during the Obama elections. Yet this county still has a lot of VERY conservative areas within it.



Green (city of Cincinnati, 297K): 75-24 Obama
Purple (northern suburbs, 163K): 59-40 Obama
Red (eastern suburbs, 151K): 61-38 McCain
Blue (western subrubs, 191K): 69-30 McCain

Usually the suburbs within the county of a big city are less conservative than the ones around it, but Hamilton is an exception. Especially the blue area, the northeastern part of the blue section has some Obama precincts, so most of that is >70% McCain! I even saw some >80% McCain precincts, as if this is Birmingham or Atlanta. So my question would be, what makes these suburbs directly to the west of the city so Republican? Is it wealth, religion, or any other factor? The eastern suburbs vote like the counties around it, and the purple vote like typical inner suburbs.

[Torie]

Cincinnati was always a Pub town. It was a pro Union, pro Lincoln area surrounded by territory that was not interested in abolishing slavery, it never received much of an influx of Eastern Europeans, never had much of lower skilled CIO union industry, as opposed to higher skilled AFL types of jobs, its Jewish community was German, and bourgeoise, and well integrated into the establishment, and Republican, and then it began to get its working class from the Republican mountains of Kentucky. And it has never had much of an influx of the liberal white gentry (the number of heavily white Dem precincts is amazingly few), because it is still mostly a manufacturing town (with no major universities). What has moved the city/county towards the Dems is the increase in the black population percentage. Come to think of it, the Hispanics are really thin on the ground as well. The metro area is the most Pub metro area of some size almost anywhere in the nation, outside of Phoenix perhaps, and some areas in the South.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Hamilton County has precinct results going all the way back to 1992.  

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/archiveresults.asp

Here's how Cincinnati voted in the 90s.


1992:

Clinton/Gore:          74,579 votes, 52.38%
Bush/Quale:           49,528 votes, 34.78%
Perot/Stockdale:    17,026 votes, 11.96%
Other:                      1,261 votes,   0.88%

Total:                    142,394 votes


1996:


Clinton/Gore:  74,739 votes,  59.72%
Dole/Kemp:     42,977 votes, 34.34%
Other:               7,442 votes,    5.94%

Total:               125,158 votes


Notice how the electorate shrank and became more Democratic.  #whiteflight

[Linus Van Pelt]

In fairness, the electorate shrank and got more Democratic across the whole country in 1996.

[TJ in Oregon]

Notice how the electorate shrank and became more Democratic.  #whiteflight

^^ Yup, this is the primary reason for Hamilton County's Democratic trend. The old Republican voters are still voting Republican, just many of them now live in Butler, Clermont, and Warren Counties.

Another major factor in recent elections is that Hamilton County has had a long tradition of Republican voting African Americans (not a majority, but more than say the 5% nationwide). The Obama years have put a huge dent in this and it will be interesting to see if the Obama effect is sustained or if things revert back to the way they were before.

The Cincinnati area on the whole is the only metro in the country whose white population is a mix of German Catholics and Scotch-Irish southerners. The result is is a very Republican area.

FYI, the nexus of German suburbia in metro Cinci is those blood red (non Atlas) inner suburbs on the west side of the city. Things get 80% R real fast as you head out of the Cincinnati city limits. Most importantly of all, that area is where the McDonald's Filet-O-Fish was invented.

[Padfoot]

You'll also notice that a lot of the northern suburbs in that purple section have a higher black population which mostly explains their more Democratic tilt.

I grew up in Butler County and I have to tell you that it is a struggle being an atheist white liberal in the Cincy metro.  You've got the extreme racial polarization, the heavy handed bible thumping, and the tea party-like, over-developed, oppositional reflex to any taxes or gov't regulation.  Politically, the Cincinnati area is much more Southern than Midwestern.

[DS0816]

In fairness, the electorate shrank and got more Democratic across the whole country in 1996.

“Time” noted the county’s developing trend, away from the Republicans, in its post-Election 1996.

2008—a realigning presidential election for the Democrats—made it official with the county having carried for Team Blue first time since 1964. (Coincidence?)

[Vosem]

In fairness, the electorate shrank and got more Democratic across the whole country in 1996.

“Time” noted the county’s developing trend, away from the Republicans, in its post-Election 1996.

2008—a realigning presidential election for the Democrats—made it official with the county having carried for Team Blue first time since 1964. (Coincidence?)

Is the word 'coincidence' at the end meant to be a non-sequitur? Certainly that a county voted the same way in 1964 and 2008 is a coincidence, since the candidates, issues, and political geography had utterly changed in that time, and also not a very notable one (there are hundreds of counties that voted D in both 1964 and 2008).

[jimrtex]

I thought Hamilton, OH would be an interesting county to see broken down. Its an interesting county because it anchors a big city, yet was once solidly Republican. As the urban rural divide came more and more into effect, the margins become smaller and smaller and eventually turned blue during the Obama elections. Yet this county still has a lot of VERY conservative areas within it.



Green (city of Cincinnati, 297K): 75-24 Obama
Purple (northern suburbs, 163K): 59-40 Obama
Red (eastern suburbs, 151K): 61-38 McCain
Blue (western subrubs, 191K): 69-30 McCain

Usually the suburbs within the county of a big city are less conservative than the ones around it, but Hamilton is an exception. Especially the blue area, the northeastern part of the blue section has some Obama precincts, so most of that is >70% McCain! I even saw some >80% McCain precincts, as if this is Birmingham or Atlanta. So my question would be, what makes these suburbs directly to the west of the city so Republican? Is it wealth, religion, or any other factor? The eastern suburbs vote like the counties around it, and the purple vote like typical inner suburbs.

The black population has moved northward. There are some very black suburbs. There are some extremely sharp racial gradients in the eastern part of the city, so the area to the east must be lower/middle class white which provided resistance. The presence of Hamilton-Middleton-Dayton must have provided some impetus to the north. Indiana would be more interested in developing roads to New Albany, and Ohio might not have developed roads to the west. The river itself would have been preferred over the railroads at least in the 19th Century.The area to the west in the county is not densely populated and doesn't have that many cities. It may be a place for a wealthy mercantile class/country clubs, particularly since Cincinnati is a commercial center rather than industrial.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The right-wing base in greater Cincinnati is made up of people with a lot of money who think they're smarter than everyone else.

The map of Campbell County would be interesting. It has some white working-class areas that were strongly for Obama (even though Romney won the county as a whole). The Democratic base in Campbell County is mostly working-class whites.

[RFayette]

The right-wing base in greater Cincinnati is made up of people with a lot of money who think they're smarter than everyone else.

I thought we were the anti-intellectual party?

Regardless, Cincinnati suburbs are Republican because they are very, very white, rather wealthy, and combine Midwestern GOP historical voting with Southern social conservatism. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One trouble spot is Green Township just west of the city. One of the big issues there is the attempts to keep Section 8 housing out of the township.

[Adam Griffin]

I grew up in Butler County and I have to tell you that it is a struggle being an atheist white liberal in the Cincy metro.  You've got the extreme racial polarization, the heavy handed bible thumping, and the tea party-like, over-developed, oppositional reflex to any taxes or gov't regulation.  Politically, the Cincinnati area is much more Southern than Midwestern.

RIP

[nclib]

Cincinnati is pretty right-wing for a major city outside the South. However, Hamilton County had a reasonable showing in the anti-gay marriage vote in 2004. 56% to ban gay marriage, only behind Athens, Franklin, and Cuyahoga.

[TDAS04]

Cincinnati is pretty right-wing for a major city outside the South. However, Hamilton County had a reasonable showing in the anti-gay marriage vote in 2004. 56% to ban gay marriage, only behind Athens, Franklin, and Cuyahoga.

That's interesting.  Suburban Republicans seem to be considerably less anti-gay than people in rural areas.  It's an issue where the urban/rural divide seems especially prominent.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cincinnati is pretty right-wing for a major city outside the South. However, Hamilton County had a reasonable showing in the anti-gay marriage vote in 2004. 56% to ban gay marriage, only behind Athens, Franklin, and Cuyahoga.

That's interesting.  Suburban Republicans seem to be considerably less anti-gay than people in rural areas.  It's an issue where the urban/rural divide seems especially prominent.

It's true in Kentucky too. Campbell County was actually less supportive of the anti-gay marriage amendment than Elliott County was, although Elliott County's Democratic leanings are well documented,.

[Padfoot]

I grew up in Butler County and I have to tell you that it is a struggle being an atheist white liberal in the Cincy metro.  You've got the extreme racial polarization, the heavy handed bible thumping, and the tea party-like, over-developed, oppositional reflex to any taxes or gov't regulation.  Politically, the Cincinnati area is much more Southern than Midwestern.

RIP

Yeah they replaced him with "hug me" Jesus

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I suspect the main reason Obama carried the county twice is because Cincinnati has a significant black population.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Cincinnati is pretty right-wing for a major city outside the South. However, Hamilton County had a reasonable showing in the anti-gay marriage vote in 2004. 56% to ban gay marriage, only behind Athens, Franklin, and Cuyahoga.

That's interesting.  Suburban Republicans seem to be considerably less anti-gay than people in rural areas.  It's an issue where the urban/rural divide seems especially prominent.

It's true in Kentucky too. Campbell County was actually less supportive of the anti-gay marriage amendment than Elliott County was, although Elliott County's Democratic leanings are well documented,.

That was when there were enough socially conservative Democrats to make a difference.

[DS0816]

I suspect the main reason Obama carried the county twice is because Cincinnati has a significant black population.

@ http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/14/news/la-pn-two-ohio-cities-hold-key-to-who-carries-state-in-november-20120614

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