Autumn 2015 Weather Outlook
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Author Topic: Autumn 2015 Weather Outlook  (Read 1008 times)
Frodo
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« on: August 13, 2015, 05:58:43 PM »
« edited: August 14, 2015, 09:15:36 PM by Frodo »



And since autumn is the season for hurricanes in addition to fall foliage, the NOAA has made an update to its Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

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snowguy716
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2015, 07:11:23 PM »

Oftentimes during El Nino, cold air will inundate the U.S. in October bringing unusual cold early in the winter season.  This sometimes lasts into November. 

Think of it like a reservoir though.  The cold inundates us early but cannot recharge...so by the time winter comes, there is unusually little cold air in the north and milder air dominates.

During winter 1997/98, the last major El Nino, November saw incursions of cold air and snow only to be replaced with thawing mild temps for nearly all of December.

I'd say winter storms will get an early start across the Southwest with lots of moisture training up from the tropics into northern Mexico, southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

There would be relatively little cold air to work with.. but in the mountains you only need low pressure and moisture.  The low pressure ensures colder air at lower elevations allowing for heavy snow to fall.

It is a real crapshoot for the Pacific Northwest.  This El Nino is big enough that there might be enough moisture that they get average precipitation... but the Pacific ocean near North America is at temperatures never seen before so it might entrench the high pressure we've seen for a few years now and keep them high and dry even while storms and moisture sneaks in underneath (to the south) of the high pressure.

It could end up being the kind of winter where storms flood into the inland Southwest but keep the coast clear.  This pattern would mean very wet conditions for Texas.  The north-central and NW would be mild and dry, then.

With a record El Nino, it could mean a very warm winter for much of the U.S. with little snow to be had well into winter except in the mountains. 

But if the atmosphere goes wonky like it did in the last El Nino, we could have a situation where at times, Florida is colder than Minnesota.  In the winter.  That's the kind of stuff El Nino does.
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 11:02:50 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2015, 11:04:55 PM by Frodo »

It looks as if Virginia is about to become ground zero for Hurricane Joaquin when it eventually makes landfall on Sunday, if the current track holds:







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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2015, 11:03:33 PM »

A state of emergency has been declared in Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, as well as in the Carolinas.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2015, 03:00:55 PM »

The amount of rainfall along the east coast the past few days has been pretty incredible.  As I speak it is a steady rain without interruption from DC to Boston. 
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Frodo
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2015, 11:53:20 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2015, 09:56:11 PM by Frodo »

Looking like Hurricane Joaquin will increasingly become a fish storm once it departs the Bahamas -assuming it avoids hitting Bermuda, that is:



The amount of rainfall along the east coast the past few days has been pretty incredible.  As I speak it is a steady rain without interruption from DC to Boston.  

After that long dry spell we had from mid-July onward, it was rain we certainly needed.  

Check out the rainfall totals received so far in South Carolina:



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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2015, 12:30:28 AM »

Here is what it looked like before the rains came:

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Frodo
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2015, 09:54:45 PM »

South Carolina Flooding: Obama Signs Disaster Declaration; Mandatory Evacuations Ordered; 11 Killed

By Sean Breslin
Published Oct 5 2015 10:07 PM EDT


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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2015, 11:11:25 PM »

And here's how it all happened:

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2015, 08:32:54 AM »

I'm on the periphery of the damage zone and still affected. I have a boil water advisory and was under curfew last night, tho really that isn't needed for my part of the county.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2015, 12:01:06 AM »

Here is what it looked like before the rains came:



And after:

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