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snowguy716
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,632
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« on: August 13, 2015, 07:11:23 PM » |
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Oftentimes during El Nino, cold air will inundate the U.S. in October bringing unusual cold early in the winter season. This sometimes lasts into November.
Think of it like a reservoir though. The cold inundates us early but cannot recharge...so by the time winter comes, there is unusually little cold air in the north and milder air dominates.
During winter 1997/98, the last major El Nino, November saw incursions of cold air and snow only to be replaced with thawing mild temps for nearly all of December.
I'd say winter storms will get an early start across the Southwest with lots of moisture training up from the tropics into northern Mexico, southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico.
There would be relatively little cold air to work with.. but in the mountains you only need low pressure and moisture. The low pressure ensures colder air at lower elevations allowing for heavy snow to fall.
It is a real crapshoot for the Pacific Northwest. This El Nino is big enough that there might be enough moisture that they get average precipitation... but the Pacific ocean near North America is at temperatures never seen before so it might entrench the high pressure we've seen for a few years now and keep them high and dry even while storms and moisture sneaks in underneath (to the south) of the high pressure.
It could end up being the kind of winter where storms flood into the inland Southwest but keep the coast clear. This pattern would mean very wet conditions for Texas. The north-central and NW would be mild and dry, then.
With a record El Nino, it could mean a very warm winter for much of the U.S. with little snow to be had well into winter except in the mountains.
But if the atmosphere goes wonky like it did in the last El Nino, we could have a situation where at times, Florida is colder than Minnesota. In the winter. That's the kind of stuff El Nino does.
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