MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Mr. Smith]

Man, this thread is going to be an absolute mess on Nov. 7, lol.

And what thread on any close race isn't?

[J. J.]

Gun to my head, Hawley.

I keep going back to 2016.  Trump underpolled by 6 points verus the RCP average.  If it is a third of that this cycle, Hawley wins.

I keep wondering if the polling models in states that were outside the margin of error in 2016 (MO, IN, etc)... will experience an overcorrection in the polling models for 2018 as the pendulum of Trump support swing back a bit.

That is why I said, "even a third of that." 

Excluding IL, something was way off in the mid-west in 2016 regarding the polling.  Trump was leading in MO by 11 points; he took it by 18.5 points.  Similar things happened in IA, WI and MN; it was 6-7.5 point in those states.   The undecided breaking would not it.  It had to be either a series of bad models  or, in that region, it is a "shy Trump supporters" thing.  It doesn't have to be a lot of either to give the state to Hawley. 

Of course the opposite is true in NV and AZ.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If she's able to pull this off, does she decide to run in 2020? Also lol at Hawley cancelling on MTP.

Run for what?

[Ebsy]

Did not notice this before, but McCaskill has received endorsements from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Columbia Daily Tribune in addition to the Kansas City Star.

[SCNCmod]

Did not notice this before, but McCaskill has received endorsements from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Columbia Daily Tribune in addition to the Kansas City Star.

Do newspaper endorsements still have any impact in MO?

[SCNCmod]

Are a lot of the Republican voters in Missouri hardcore MAGA til the end types or are most more reasonable?  Just doing a quick search of McCaskill on twitter and every other post is some MAGA person talking total crazy trash about McCaskill. (same regarding Donnelly in IN)

[Oryxslayer]

Are a lot of the Republican voters in Missouri hardcore MAGA til the end types or are most more reasonable?  Just doing a quick search of McCaskill on twitter and every other post is some MAGA person talking total crazy trash about McCaskill. (same regarding Donnelly in IN)

If you're posting your voting opinion on twitter, chances are you are not a swing voter.

[Suburbia]

Hawley was forced to run for Senate.

He probably wins anyway due to Missouri's rightward trend.

Hawley probably wants to be president one day.

If he wins, I hope he is not a typical, do-nothing central casting U.S. Senator.

We will see.

[SCNCmod]

Hawley was forced to run for Senate.

He probably wins anyway due to Missouri's rightward trend.

Hawley probably wants to be president one day.

If he wins, I hope he is not a typical, do-nothing central casting U.S. Senator.

We will see.

Seeing the clips of Hawley speaking at the Trump rally last night.... He's never going to be President.  He's obviously an extremely smart guy, and is telegenic.... but boy does he lack the xfactor in front of a crowd.  To have so much going for him on paper- he has zero charisma or spark in front of a crowd.

[super6646]

If Mccaskill somehow wins again, I'm gonna question if she is human. You cannot question her determination and a little bit of luck that is on her side. For the GOP, how the heck can you constantly run crappy candidates there?

[Pandaguineapig]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

[Lechasseur]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

Yep. She was my least favorite senator. Good riddance!

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

Yep. She was my one of my least favorite senators. Good riddance!

[Pericles]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

What did she say?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

What did she say?


[/quote

McCaskill is a great Politician. I wouldn't have conceded to Hawley either]

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

I was right! Time to buy myself a Missouri themed dessert as a reward. Any suggestions guys?

[Calthrina950]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

I was right! Time to buy myself a Missouri themed dessert as a reward. Any suggestions guys?

I have none, but you were right not only about Missouri, but also about North Dakota and Indiana (though your margins were somewhat off). You were also correct in predicting a Blackburn win by double digits in Tennessee (though she won by 11%, as compared to the 14% you predicted). Hawley won by 6%, which was much wider than I had predicted.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

I was right! Time to buy myself a Missouri themed dessert as a reward. Any suggestions guys?

I have none, but you were right not only about Missouri, but also about North Dakota and Indiana (though your margins were somewhat off). You were also correct in predicting a Blackburn win by double digits in Tennessee (though she won by 11%, as compared to the 14% you predicted). Hawley won by 6%, which was much wider than I had predicted.

Yep, btw check your PMs for a link to a place I'm inviting you to

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow LMAO Emanuel Cleaver outran McCaskill in the three red rural counties that are completely within his district.

Lafayette County

62-34 (-28) McCaskill loss

60-37 (-23) Cleaver loss

Ray County

58-37 (-21) McCaskill loss

56-40 (-16) Cleaver loss

Saline County

58-37 (-21) McCaskill loss

56-41 (-15) Cleaver loss

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Yet another cold Friday night here in NYC and I decided to stay home today. Took some time to make a Akin to Hawley swing map based on raw percentages (not margins). For instance, if Akin got 50% in one county and Hawley got 62% in that same county six years later, I count it as a 12% swing. If Akin got 34% in a county and Hawley got 57% in that same county six years later, I count it as a 23% swing. I'm not factoring Claire's percentages into this scenario.

Light Red shows a swing to Hawley from 0% to <10%. Medium Red shows a swing to Hawley from 10% to <20%. Dark Red shows a swing to Hawley of over 20%.

There were a handful of counties where the swing to Hawley was over 30%. Mercer County, near the Iowa border, was one. St. Louis City and St. Louis County swung by under 5%. The bootheel, the border with Iowa, and areas far from cities in general swung the hardest, but Hawley outperformed Akin everywhere, even in urban/suburban areas. It just goes to show what rural trends combined with candidate quality can do. I'll see if I can make a swing map comparing Hawley's percentages to Trump's 2016 performance, to show how much of a better fit Claire was than Hillary. That map might be entirely blue in the same way that this map was entirely red.


Edit:



Ok, here is the Hillary to Claire swing map. Claire only outperformed Hillary in much of these counties by single digits, and in the vast majority of these single digit outperformances, she only outperformed Hillary by <5%. There was even one county in the bootheel where she did 0.1% worse than Hillary in terms of percentage. She managed to outperform Hillary by double digits in counties surrounding St. Louis, though only outperformed her by single digits in St. Louis County and St. Louis City.  In St. Genevieve she almost outperformed Hillary by 15%.

I considered making separate colors for the 0-5% and 5-10% range, but decided I'd rather compare it to the above map. Claire didn't outperform Hillary by over 20% in any county, so this map was a rather simple affair.