MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Associate Justice PiT]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

No.

[The Other Castro]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

It wouldn't even be Safe R in a Clinton midterm. As things stand right now, it's no worse than Lean R, closer to Toss-Up IMO.

[Klartext89]

The MO-SEN primary is going to be cluster.

Right after the Gorsuch vote, McConnell stated firmly that "they" would intervene in primaries where necessary.

You can bet MO would top that list after what happened in 2012.

Excellent news!

Excellent? This is VERY VERY EXCELLENT!

The GOP has blown so many easy races in 2010 and especially 2012, that everything else than intervening in Primaries would be hilarious.

If you take out non-electable candidates and nominate good candidates against these Trump State Dems, then there are many pickups possible.

[Klartext89]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

It wouldn't even be Safe R in a Clinton midterm. As things stand right now, it's no worse than Lean R, closer to Toss-Up IMO.

LMAO. The denial again is fascinating, but ok, let's laugh about it. I'm sure Dems will - as always - get tons of good polls - and will be surprised at Election Night.

The only question is whether McCaskill loses by double digits or only by high single digits.

[RogueBeaver]

Prominent Republicans trying to draft Hawley.

[Heisenberg]

Prominent Republicans trying to draft Hawley.

Ugh, why? It looks way too nakedly ambitious after just three months, and he only won because of Trump's super coat tails (If Trump only won by 9, like Romeny, Blunt and half of the row ballot statewide Republicans would have lost). Hawley would lose to McCaskill, he's way too "bible thumping" for suburban KC/STL. Wagner needs t be the nominee.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is favored against most of the Republican nominees save Wagner. But not DOA against Wagner

Important to note that with Trump governing as more of a conservative than a populist that Missouri will likely be less GOP in 2018 and 2020 though still will lean GOP overall.

Hawley is a douchebag. My least favorite of the MO GOP.

[Ebsy]

Prominent Republicans trying to draft Hawley.

Ugh, why? It looks way too nakedly ambitious after just three months, and he only won because of Trump's super coat tails (If Trump only won by 9, like Romeny, Blunt and half of the row ballot statewide Republicans would have lost). Hawley would lose to McCaskill, he's way too "bible thumping" for suburban KC/STL. Wagner needs t be the nominee.

Drafting Hawley would be a surefire way to ensure McCaskill has a great shot at reelection. He is way too green for the Senate.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Any credible non-joke Republican candidate should win fairly easily, but yeah... I'm not entirely sold on Hawley either, to say the least. There are better options. Anyway, looks like we will get a poll here very soon:

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https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/851078771062996993

Also, Wagner has raised $2.7 million already.

Well, that's what happens when you tell half your constituents to shut the **** up.

[jamestroll]

Looks like McCaskill has raised around 2.8 million dollars and is roughly even with Ann Wagner (MO-02) in fundraising.

Maybe McCaskill can win a third election she was not supposed to win

Obviously I would support Jason Kander as the nominee over McCaskill but that is not likely to happen. I support Kander because 1) he is hott and 2) his persona does connect better to Missourians and 3) less potential attacks on Kander.

But this is a race McCaskill can win.

[MT Treasurer]

If McCaskill wins, I think a lot of Republicans will have a meltdown LOL. Maybe it's the best if I mentally prepare for a McCaskill victory.

[windjammer]

If McCaskill wins, I think a lot of Republicans will have a meltdown LOL. Maybe it's the best if I mentally prepare for a McCaskill victory.

I mean, it seems that Trump wil have a -20 approval ratings when the midterms will be held. He's not going to be popular heavily with this job approval and might even been slightly unpopular, so Mccaskill does that a chance to be reelected, considering Trump will certainly not drag her down.

[jamestroll]

if mccaskill loses to someone like austin peterson or billy long.. i may have fainted.. but I live near a hospital so I should be treated very quickly.

[BuckeyeNut]

McCaskill has raised $2.8 mil to Wagner $800k in Quarter 1.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Missouri Senate will not be "Safe R" in any situation lol

[Pollster]

My GCS poll of this race, in the field May 3-5, is now complete. My apologies for the small sample size, I was pressed for funds.

The final results show that McCaskill begins with a slight lead over Hawley, but a plurality of the electorate is undecided.

Respondents were presented with the following question with randomized answer choices:
In November 2018, Missourians will go to the polls to vote for a U.S. Senator. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote or lean towards voting?
Democrat Claire McCaskill
Republican Josh Hawley
Unsure
I am not likely/registered to vote. (always last)

Raw results were as follows:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 24.8%
Republican Josh Hawley - 28.7%
Unsure - 29.6%
I am not likely/registered to vote. - 17.0%
(335 respondents, MOE +/- 5.31%)

Raw results with unlikely/unregistered voters and unknown age/gender removed were as follows:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 32.3%
Republican Josh Hawley - 30.9%
Unsure - 36.8%
(223 respondents, MOE +/- 6.53%)

Final results weighted to 2016 MO Senate turnout:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 34.7%
Republican Josh Hawley - 29.8%
Unsure - 35.5%
(221 respondents, MOE +/- 6.56%)

Full frequencies and crosstabs available here (I am not yet allowed to post links): drive.google.com/file/d/0B_w-oF5U9Rw8b0FTakE1cU80R28/view?usp=sharing.

I will try to do more polling of additional races as my schedule and funds allow!

[Pollster]

Analysis and Key Takeaways:

-McCaskill is significantly weaker among all adults but gains strength when the sample is reduced to likely/registered voters. This could be a sign of Democratic enthusiasm, but because GCS doesn't provide party affiliation it is not possible to know with this data set. Regardless, GOP efforts right now should be focused on voter registration.

-No name rec data in this set unfortunately, but probably safe to assume that McCaskill's is higher than Hawley, if only by a small amount. If true, McCaskill's lead and the high # of undecideds could be attributed to that.

-It's a small subsample, but the youngest group of voters are overwhelmingly undecided. My guess is because of unfamiliarity with both candidates and McCaskill ends up winning among this demo. Not a given, though, and she should be working to win them over as fast as possible.

-McCaskill and Hawley's leads in urban and rural areas, respectively, are predictable. McCaskill's early strength in suburbs are very telling, and this could be very different in a McCaskill/Wagner matchup.

-McCaskill numbers are very strong with elderly voters. If her margins with this demo hold and she is able to win over young voters in large enough numbers, she will win reelection so long as she can hold Hawley below certain percentages with middle age voters.

-Hawley's likeliest path to victory right now looks to be defining himself positively, upping voter registration among middle age and rural voters and turning out Trump-level numbers in rural MO. Winning over young voters not a bad idea but probably not best strategy since this demo leans Dem nationwide.

-Overall, a good but far from great poll for Dems. If additional polls with smaller MOE's corroborate this data, then McCaskill's path to reelection seems clear to me at this very early stage.

[Ebsy]

Wagner is going to crash and burn hard in the primary. She's basically disappeared from the state, doesn't have anyone answering the phones at her office.

[KingSweden]

Man, Wagner seemed like a sure thing. Crazy if Hawley pips her to the nom

[Brittain33]

If McCaskill wins, I think a lot of Republicans will have a meltdown LOL. Maybe it's the best if I mentally prepare for a McCaskill victory.

If by some miracle McCaskill wins, that means this class of Senators will have had 4 strong Democratic cycles to run in in a row, with all but 2000 being veritable waves. Lucky ducks. You have to go back to 1994 for Republicans to do well.

(2000 didn't turn out to be a good year for Senate Dems until Election Day, but it's the result that counts.)

[Brittain33]

If by some miracle McCaskill wins, that means this class of Senators will have had 4 strong Democratic cycles to run in in a row, with all but 2000 being veritable waves. Lucky ducks. You have to go back to 1994 for Republicans to do well.

Of the other classes,

1. 2016, 2010, and 2004 is a good run of 3 good cycles for Republicans, with 1998 as a wash.

2. 2014, 2008, 2002, 1996 was R wave, D wave, and 2 lean R cycles.

[Figueira]

Wagner voted for the AHCA, as did most Republican Reps who are plotting Senate runs in various states.

[jamestroll]

Let's help McCaskill win a third election in a that she is not supposed to win!


I AM IN LOVE WITH CLAIRE MCCASKILL.

We can do it!!

[Kamala]

Best friends!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just trying to trigger MT aren't you?