MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[MarkD]

Does Hawley run?

I have not seen any news sources other than Newsmax say that he's running, but it was reported, by Newsmax's John Gizzi, two days ago that, "several sources in the Show-Me State told Newsmax that Republican State Attorney General Josh Hawley has decided to take on two-term Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill."
It was in the Twitter link in the bottom of the previous page and reposted at the top of this page.
Here's the Newsmax article.
But no other stories available on the internet have confirmed he decided to run, only that he's being courted to run. Like USNews, and Courier Express. So if no other news sources are confirming it, I kind of wonder now how reliable Mr. Gizzi at Newsmax is. I edited the Wikipedia page about US Senate election, 2018 to add that Howley is in the race, using Newsmax as my source, but now I'm wondering if I should change it back until some other source confirms it too.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico has said so too, but citing operatives who have talked to Hawley associates.

[RogueBeaver]

Danforth said he guesses Hawley will announce in September/October, which jibes with Newsmax.

[I’m not Stu]

Any other Republicans who might run?

[The Other Castro]

Any other Republicans who might run?

Curtman probably, Schmitt maybe.

[MarkD]

Any other Republicans who might run?

According to The Missouri Times, the possibilities include:
Speaker Todd Richardson
David Wasinger
State Senator Mike Kehoe
NASCAR driver Carl Edwards
State Senator Ryan Silvey
Ed Martin
Former Speaker Catherine Hanaway
David Gregory
Former Speaker Tim Jones
State Senator Bill Eigel
(I'm not including those who are mentioned in the article but seem unlikely to run).

Treasurer Eric Schmitt is another possibility mentioned recently in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch as well as a recent Missouri Times piece.

[jamestroll]

Isn't it funny on how early conventional wisdom is hilariously inaccurate?

A year ago it was assumed that Hillary Clinton would be president and Ann Wagner would be on her way to defeating McCaskill by a 2 to 1 margin or more.

Guess that will not be happening even if I am predicting a single digit loss for the incumbent as of now.

[I’m not Stu]

Hawley hasn't filed for candidacy yet.

[MarkD]

Hawley hasn't filed for candidacy yet.

He hasn't announced his intentions yet, but his boosters, like ex-Sen. Danforth, are confidently saying that he has decided to run. Danforth predicts that Hawley will announce in Sep. or Oct.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/21/josh-hawley-mum-senate-bid-but-others-buzzing/500185001/

[Gass3268]

Ann Wagner showing strong support to State Rep. Paul Curtman.

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[RogueBeaver]

Sour grapes.

[RogueBeaver]

Hawley will announce his exploratory committee on Friday.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tombstone #22346: Senator Claire McCaskill

Born: January 3, 2007
Died: January 3, 2019

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the fact that MO/AR/La which had Landrieu, Blanch Lincoln and McCaskill, are all gonna go red with 6 GOP senators. The states are polarized.  But, the polarization didn't happen in 2016 like it should have in OH, PA, and WI.

But, we will likely continue to see that trend continue, polarization of the states well into 2020 (CO and NC) and 2022, when Dems will likely see better gains.

[Kamala]

It's the fact that MO/AR/La which had Landrieu, Blanch Lincoln and McCaskill, are all gonna go red with 6 GOP senators. The states are polarized.  But, the polarization didn't happen in 2016 like it should have in OH, PA, and WI.

But, we will likely continue to see that trend continue, polarization of the states well into 2020 (CO and NC) and 2022, when Dems will likely see better gains.

Funny thing is, had 2016 gone slightly better for the Dems, Missouri and Indiana could've been represented by only Democrats in the Senate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's the fact that MO/AR/La which had Landrieu, Blanch Lincoln and McCaskill, are all gonna go red with 6 GOP senators. The states are polarized.  But, the polarization didn't happen in 2016 like it should have in OH, PA, and WI.

But, we will likely continue to see that trend continue, polarization of the states well into 2020 (CO and NC) and 2022, when Dems will likely see better gains.

Funny thing is, had 2016 gone slightly better for the Dems, Missouri and Indiana could've been represented by only Democrats in the Senate.

Bayh lost by 10%. 2016 would have needed to go A LOT better, not just a little, for him to win.

[Coraxion]

This is the only race that I'm sweating over. But McCaskill has been in this situation before. Maybe she'll figure something out.

[MT Treasurer]

Hawley will announce his exploratory committee on Friday.

Great news! This is one of the most important races in the country, a Republican win here would be big.

AKA, drains her war chest by destroying Hawley's favorability numbers, drops out citing her breast cancer, and the party chooses Kander, who is still pretty well liked in the state, to run in her stead.

This isn't going to happen. First of all, McCaskill is going to face an avalanche of attack ads herself. Second, there is no indication that she is planning on stepping down AT ALL, in fact she seems fairly confident that she will win.

Even if Kander were to win the nomination, he'd have a harder time beating Hawley than Roy Blunt.

[Xing]

Tombstone #22346: Senator Claire McCaskill

Born: January 3, 2007
Died: January 3, 2019

More like preemptive prediction #4829581039

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hawley will announce his exploratory committee on Friday.

Great news! This is one of the most important races in the country, a Republican win here would be big.

AKA, drains her war chest by destroying Hawley's favorability numbers, drops out citing her breast cancer, and the party chooses Kander, who is still pretty well liked in the state, to run in her stead.

This isn't going to happen. First of all, McCaskill is going to face an avalanche of attack ads herself. Second, there is no indication that she is planning on stepping down AT ALL, in fact she seems fairly confident that she will win.

Even if Kander were to win the nomination, he'd have a harder time beating Hawley than Roy Blunt.

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right?

Uh, you realize this is Missouri we're talking about, right? Of course it doesn't.

News flash: he's definitely underwater in MO rn

Polls have shown Trump breaking even in Ohio, which he won by 10. In Missouri, he won by 19, so he's probably still above water.

[heatcharger]

News flash: he's definitely underwater in MO rn

Nope. Gallup had him at 49/46 in Missouri, although that was from January-June. He could be underwater in Missouri on Election Day, but I doubt it.

[TheSaint250]

Stoked for a Hawley victory, but a little upset Petersen won't get a chance to shine

[heatcharger]

News flash: he's definitely underwater in MO rn

Nope. Gallup had him at 49/46 in Missouri, although that was from January-June. He could be underwater in Missouri on Election Day, but I doubt it.

See above. He's cratered since then

Is he gonna be as bad as Bush's 45/53 in Missouri in 2006? I highly doubt it. The only way McCaskill can win is by pulling off some epic trickery again or some kind of mass effort to keep Republicans home on Election Day.

[Canis]

Stoked for a Hawley victory, but a little upset Petersen won't get a chance to shine

Has their been any polls with Petersen?

[TheSaint250]

Stoked for a Hawley victory, but a little upset Petersen won't get a chance to shine

Has their been any polls with Petersen?

Not yet. In actuality he'd be at a disadvantage since the only people who know him are Libertarians and Atlasians