MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[henster]

Claire McCaskill will end up like Blanche Lincoln in 2018, it would've happened in 2012 but she lucked out with Akin. I have no doubt she will be crushed should she run for re-election, I just hope Dems realize this early and not waste too much $$ here.

[IceSpear]

Claire McCaskill will end up like Blanche Lincoln in 2018, it would've happened in 2012 but she lucked out with Akin. I have no doubt she will be crushed should she run for re-election, I just hope Dems realize this early and not waste too much $$ here.

Uh, no. At worst McCaskill would've performed similarly to Obama, so a 9-10 point loss. Lincoln lost by 20+ points.

Even against a non Akin she probably would've won narrowly considering the pro D climate that year. If even Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly could win, I don't see why she wouldn't have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont think Claire McCaskill is done at all, Sherrod Brown, Tester & Donnelly will be targetted as well. Tester, barely got by Rehnberg last, will be hard pressed in a midterm in Mnt.

Mnt is more GOP than MO.

[Xing]

I don't see McCaskill getting Blanched in 2018. Missouri's definitely quite Republican-leaning by this point, but it's not Arkansas. She'll be the underdog for sure, but even if she loses fairly badly, I doubt she'll lose by more than 10 or 11.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Claire McCaskill: How I Helped Todd Akin Win — So I Could Beat Him Later

She must be confident that this will work again in 2018? Sounds very cocky...

Her strategy won't work against Ann Wagner, Matt Blunt or Peter Kinder.

Peter Kinder is certainly capable of blowing a Senate race and Matt Blunt would probably lose by an Akin-level margin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peter Kinder is certainly capable of blowing a Senate race and Matt Blunt would probably lose by an Akin-level margin.

LOL. Anyway, this speculation is useless considering that neither Blunt nor Kinder (nor Hartzler, for that matter) are going to be the establishment's pick in this race.

I don't see McCaskill getting Blanched in 2018. Missouri's definitely quite Republican-leaning by this point, but it's not Arkansas. She'll be the underdog for sure, but even if she loses fairly badly, I doubt she'll lose by more than 10 or 11.

I tend to agree, but I still think that she will make another Akin-esque gaffe.

People forget how hated Matt Blunt was, there was a reason he didn't run for re-election.  As you say though, he won't be the nominee.

[MATTROSE94]

Claire McCaskill: How I Helped Todd Akin Win — So I Could Beat Him Later

She must be confident that this will work again in 2018? Sounds very cocky...

Her strategy won't work against Ann Wagner, Matt Blunt or Peter Kinder.

Peter Kinder is certainly capable of blowing a Senate race and Matt Blunt would probably lose by an Akin-level margin.

I feel that Ann Wagner or Peter Kinder could defeat Claire McCaskill by about 5% in 2018 because they are both pretty strong campaigners and don't come across as conservative extremists like Todd Akin did in 2012. I also feel that Matt Blunt could narrowly defeat McCaskill as well if 2018 turns out to be a bloodbath for the Democrats (very likely if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016) and/or if Democratic turnout in Missouri is low enough. Also, Matt Blunt hasn't been in office since 2009, so many people have already forgotten about his uneventful Gubernatorial term.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill confirms 2018 run

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[windjammer]

I think she's going to lose. There will be a crowded GOP primary and whoever wins will defeat her.

[Heisenberg]

McCaskill confirms 2018 run

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Yes! Hopefully we can finally beat her!

[KingSweden]

12 years is good run for any Senator

[syntaxerror]

12 years is good run for any Senator

Especially for a relatively liberal senator in a red state.

McCaskill is a smart political operative so I think she might have one more win in her. I wouldn't be ready to put my money against her at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Dems surging past 50 votes and may have a firewall to protect Heikamp, Donnelly and McCaskill, she can run and hope to win. She has nothing to lose as a strong backer of Hillary.

[JMT]

I think it's far too early to know for sure, but I do think McCaskill is the underdog in this race. I think Ann Wagner runs against her and defeats her, but still way too early to know for sure.

[jamestroll]

With the exception of one poll, she outperformed in 2012.. Akin was leading in random polls as late as mid-October.

I would not count McCaskill out yet. She won 55% of the despite, despite a decent libertarian candidate on the ballot also.

I know its controversial on Atlas, but we should not bother predicting elections past the upcoming cycle.

[Figueira]

With the exception of one poll, she outperformed in 2012.. Akin was leading in random polls as late as mid-October.

I would not count McCaskill out yet. She won 55% of the despite, despite a decent libertarian candidate on the ballot also.

I know its controversial on Atlas, but we should not bother predicting elections past the upcoming cycle.

Agreed. We also have no jdea what the 2018 climate is like. Midterms don't go against the President's party 100% of the time.

[Xing]

Yep, she's definitely going to lose. We can comfortably make this prediction now, just like we could in 2010.

[jamestroll]

With the exception of one poll, she outperformed in 2012.. Akin was leading in random polls as late as mid-October.

I would not count McCaskill out yet. She won 55% of the despite, despite a decent libertarian candidate on the ballot also.

I know its controversial on Atlas, but we should not bother predicting elections past the upcoming cycle.

Agreed. We also have no jdea what the 2018 climate is like. Midterms don't go against the President's party 100% of the time.

Yes exactly. For all we know Republicans in Congress could over reach and turn off voters, or there is a  disaster and Hillary Clinton was at least perceived as a strong leader during the crisis.. either of which could lead to a modestly Democratic midterm.

See 1998 and 2002 midterms..

During the Bush years, I remember people saying, "This Democrat can not win [insert red state here] because it is a presidential  year! Now people are saying "Democrats can not win anything outside of inner cities in midterm elections".

Circumstances and climate changes. I feel like Atlas predicts all future elections based on the most recent general election result.

[jamestroll]

Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

People predicted that after Roy Blunt won by a enormous margin in 2010, that McCaskill was Dead on Arrival in 2012 due to Obama being president. That did not happen.

I do believe Claire would have won even without the Akin gaffe.

[Xing]

Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

I certainly wouldn't have said Johnson was toast back in 2014. If McCaskill gets a decent opponent, 2018 starts looking like a bad year for Democrats, and she trails in every single poll, then her position will be comparable to Johnson's right now.

[Figueira]

Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

I certainly wouldn't have said Johnson was toast back in 2014. If McCaskill gets a decent opponent, 2018 starts looking like a bad year for Democrats, and she trails in every single poll, then her position will be comparable to Johnson's right now.

This. Meanwhile, if the Republicans nominated someone this year who looked like a favorite to beat the Democrat (maybe a weaker candidate than Clinton), and Wisconsin looked like a pure tossup or Lean R at the presidential level, and the Democrats had nominated Mary Burke or someone like that with Feingold sitting out, then it would be perfectly plausible for Johnson to win. I think that's a plausible alternate history with a POD in 2014.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill "absolutely" seeking reelection, saying that people counted her out in 2005 and 2011 as well

So yeah, no chance of Kander or Koster running in 2018, Jimmie.

[jamestroll]

She is a tough campaigner, but I would think Kander would be stronger.

Koster I would like the best ideologically. But he was too weak of a campaigner last year. I am furious he did not run a smear campaign, that is how MO dems win!!!

I do think the two statewide races in MO in 2018 will split. But if Democrats can't win either in a Trump Midterm, you may as well give up and possibly prepare for a big battle to keep MO-05 in the future.

[Kingpoleon]

She is a tough campaigner, but I would think Kander would be stronger.

Koster I would like the best ideologically. But he was too weak of a campaigner last year. I am furious he did not run a smear campaign, that is how MO dems win!!!

I do think the two statewide races in MO in 2018 will split. But if Democrats can't win either in a Trump Midterm, you may as well give up and possibly prepare for a big battle to keep MO-05 in the future.

Democrats would easily hold MO-05 if Russ or Robin Carnahan was the Representative. Unfortunately, someone much farther to their left is the Representative.

[jamestroll]

She is a tough campaigner, but I would think Kander would be stronger.

Koster I would like the best ideologically. But he was too weak of a campaigner last year. I am furious he did not run a smear campaign, that is how MO dems win!!!

I do think the two statewide races in MO in 2018 will split. But if Democrats can't win either in a Trump Midterm, you may as well give up and possibly prepare for a big battle to keep MO-05 in the future.

Democrats would easily hold MO-05 if Russ or Robin Carnahan was the Representative. Unfortunately, someone much farther to their left is the Representative.

Nope. If Democrats can not win either statewide office in 2018, MO-05 probably goes down in the next several elections. And I want no more Carnahan's in office. They are WEAK.

The GOP did a clever gerrymandering around MO-05.. Basically split Jackson County and other D friendly counties to make sure no DEM could pull an upset in MO-04  in a DEM wave.