MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread
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  MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread
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Poll
Question: Rate this race
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D
 
#5
Tossup
 
#6
Tilt R
 
#7
Lean R
 
#8
Likely R
 
#9
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 284

Author Topic: MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread  (Read 128659 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #100 on: March 16, 2017, 09:01:21 PM »

Kander, quashing speculation, sends fundraising appeal for McCaskill

Doesn't look like he's running, but who knows. Anyway, here's also an interesting list and discussion of potential Republican candidates.

Link.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #101 on: March 16, 2017, 09:18:48 PM »

He could run if McCaskill's polling looks dreadful during this summer. But I am disappointed he is not running. Yes, I would vote for him in a primary.

Of the GOP candidates I would think Wagner has an early advantage over McCaskill. The rest would either be even shots or slight underdogs.

I do not think McCaskill is going to be blanched at this point.

Of course it is extraordinarily difficult to gauge how the elections will turn out in March 2017. Gut feelings, past election results, astrology, tarot cards, wishful thinking are all unreliable.

I will be voting for the Democratic nominee barring very unforeseen circumstances.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #102 on: March 16, 2017, 09:25:37 PM »

Kander, quashing speculation, sends fundraising appeal for McCaskill

Doesn't look like he's running, but who knows. Anyway, here's also an interesting list and discussion of potential Republican candidates.

Link.

He was never going to run against her in a primary in the first place--that was always a pipe dream among some R's jizzing themselves about a nasty D primary. Though I'm still not ruling out her retiring in the summer or fall and Kander taking her place. Him as the nominee is one of the few places where D's would hold a better chance of retaining a seat than if the incumbent ran again.

McCaskill probably won't get blanched but I can not see Kander getting blanched at all.

Still I think he would be hesitant because two back to back loses could damage his political career forever. But if McCaskill decides to retire Kander is obviously the natural choice.

I may be a bit biased towards McCaskill as I have a similar (annoying-ish) personality to her.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #103 on: March 16, 2017, 09:30:16 PM »

If Kander runs, I will endorse him, as he is clearly the more electable candidate, and the current romney-state democrat senate seats must be kept D at all costs.

(In hindsight, I really shouldn't have endorsed Blunt for re-election.)
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #104 on: March 16, 2017, 09:50:42 PM »

The above posters endorsement makes all the difference in the world.

To those of you who are under estimating McCaskill, remember Wulfric has endorsed McCaskill.
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Xing
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« Reply #105 on: March 16, 2017, 09:53:51 PM »

Kander was never going to primary McCaskill. I could see him running against Greitens in 2020, or possibly against Blunt again in 2022.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #106 on: March 16, 2017, 09:57:32 PM »

Air Claire is DOA. It would take a worse candidate then Akin to save her
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #107 on: March 16, 2017, 09:58:18 PM »

Air Claire is DOA. It would take a worse candidate then Akin to save her

Lmao.
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catographer
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« Reply #108 on: March 17, 2017, 11:51:04 AM »

If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #109 on: March 17, 2017, 03:52:03 PM »

Kander was never going to primary McCaskill. I could see him running against Greitens in 2020, or possibly against Blunt again in 2022.

His luck is better against Greitens atm, between 2020 likely to be a complete rebuke of Trump's years and thus a YUGE coattails effect, and the simple fact that as of late, only Feingold has ever come out of rematch better than the first time...and it still wasn't enough to take out Johnson.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #110 on: March 18, 2017, 01:34:02 PM »

(In hindsight, I really shouldn't have endorsed Blunt for re-election.)

Your endorsement of Blunt was certainly decisive.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #111 on: March 18, 2017, 02:11:35 PM »

McCaskill's the second most vulnerable incumbent, just after Donnelly. (although the argument could be made that McCaskill is more endangered) Unlike Donnelly, she has high name recognition, won twice, (as opposed to just once like Joe) and outpolled Obama in 2012 by 10.4 points. Her share of the vote was a percentage point more than Romney's, and her raw vote count beat Romney's by over 2000 votes.

That last point is important, because that means that Todd Akin was not the only reason why Claire McCaskill won re-election. People were casting affirmative votes for Claire McCaskill. If they weren't, there would have been a major drop-off between the Presidential and Senate races, and the third-party candidate would have had a better performance. This is even more notable in light of recent events. Donald Trump has said arguably worse things about women than Todd Akin did, but HRC wasn't able to put him away nationwide like McCaskill was able to put Akin away in Missouri.

Having said that, her task is still difficult. Ann Wagner is a solid candidate. And unlike Tester, Heitkamp, and Manchin, McCaskill doesn't have the advantage of representing a tiny state that can be swayed by retail politics.

Overall, this race is probably either Tossup or Tilt R. If McCaskill can get an Akin-tier opponent again, it'll be likely D, but even with Wagner, McCaskill isn't dead in the water.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #112 on: March 18, 2017, 04:35:16 PM »

Why is this thread so long?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #113 on: March 18, 2017, 05:29:01 PM »


Because it is fun to argue.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #114 on: March 19, 2017, 03:57:58 PM »

If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?
I'd say it means they have lost twenty seats in the House, and Trump's approval is around 43 A/53 D.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #115 on: March 19, 2017, 05:49:42 PM »

If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?
I'd say it means they have lost twenty seats in the House, and Trump's approval is around 43 A/53 D.

I mean, that's where it is right now, so...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #116 on: April 07, 2017, 09:11:35 PM »

The MO-SEN primary is going to be cluster.
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MarkD
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« Reply #117 on: April 07, 2017, 09:47:09 PM »

The MO-SEN primary is going to be cluster.

Just the GOP primary, or both that and the Democratic primary? Will McCaskill face multiple opponents (like Blunt faced three minor opponents last year)?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #118 on: April 07, 2017, 11:23:21 PM »

McCaskill will not be facing any serious opposition. Democrats in this state love her.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #119 on: April 09, 2017, 12:16:25 AM »

The MO-SEN primary is going to be cluster.

Right after the Gorsuch vote, McConnell stated firmly that "they" would intervene in primaries where necessary.

You can bet MO would top that list after what happened in 2012.
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Figueira
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« Reply #120 on: April 09, 2017, 06:05:31 PM »

If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?

If that happens I'd expect Democrats to win the House, although it might be narrow.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #121 on: April 09, 2017, 06:11:27 PM »

If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?

If that happens I'd expect Democrats to win the House, although it might be narrow.

Democrats can take back the House while still losing multiple Senate seats. Most of their potential House pickups aren't in states with vulnerable Democratic senators, and even in a wave, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly are in trouble.

On a side note, I'm not sure there's ever been an instance of a party taking back one of the chambers while losing seats in the other.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #122 on: April 09, 2017, 06:12:06 PM »

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.
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Figueira
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« Reply #123 on: April 09, 2017, 06:37:29 PM »

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

No.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #124 on: April 09, 2017, 11:04:15 PM »

Wagner would be favored against McCaskill for sure but politics can often work counter intuitively. Remember that Robin Carnahan was considered a top tier recruit early on, few saw Roy Blunt having a tight race early on, and Chris Koster was favored early on. So we will have to see where the race goes.

I am hoping that state Democrats make same effort in the open MO-02 (assuming Wagner actually runs). It is a GOP leaning district but its not overwhelmingly Republican and Kander and Blunt were virtually tied there despite Kander losing statewide.
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