MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[SATW]

Oh my...

If mccaskill wins reelection i cringe at the nationwide protests and violence from the GOP. 

only your party acts like a room full of children when you lose

[Suburbia]

Another major recruitment fail. And MT Treasurer laughed when I said it was a bad sign Fox wasn't going to run against Tester. I wonder who the next big name to pass will be.

Maybe Rick Scott in FL against Bill Nelson or Tom Kean Jr. or Jay Webber in NJ against Bob Menendez.

[Suburbia]

Sarah Steelman or Catherine Hanaway can beat McCaskill in 2018.

[Cactus Jack]

Sarah Steelman or Catherine Hanaway can beat McCaskill in 2018.

Not likely. Those two are exactly the sort of retread candidates that the GOP desperately needs to avoid in 2018.

[BuckeyeNut]

Oh my...

If mccaskill wins reelection i cringe at the nationwide protests and violence from the GOP. 

only your party acts like a room full of children when you lose

Cute.

[jamestroll]

There certainly was evidence that Wagners house seat would be endangered for the GOP if open and McCaskill would face a strong challenge from virtually any Republican. That probably factored into Wagner's decision.

Her district is not as Republican as it looks.

[Devout Centrist]

Lean D at this point. Indiana is the only Dem seat that I think will flip, at this time.

[Ebsy]

There was literally zero appetite among Missouri Republicans (the actual voters) for an Ann Wagner Senate campaign. Congrats to Claire McCaskill though!

[Cactus Jack]

Anyway, regardless of who wins the primary, I think it's far more likely for McCaskill to lose by double digits than it is for her to win reelection.

That was the assumption in 2012, too, and the MOGOP is hardly short on repeats of Todd Akin.

[Cactus Jack]

Anyway, regardless of who wins the primary, I think it's far more likely for McCaskill to lose by double digits than it is for her to win reelection.

That was the assumption in 2012, too, and the MOGOP is hardly short on repeats of Todd Akin.

2012 is, politically speaking, a century ago. Can you imagine a Republican candidate running in a red state saying something similar to Akin's "legitimate rape" rape comment and actually losing to their opponent? They're literally beating up reporters on election day eve and still winning fairly comfortably.

From what I understand, most of the vote was already in by the time Gianforte had his, ah, little moment. Also, until I'm proven wrong, I'm holding onto the possibly naive hope that Trump's win was a metaphysical glitch in reality and won't be repeated.

[KingSweden]

Still a Tossup, btw, but Wagner was a serious opponent. Don't know where this idea she'd have been weak comes from - she was Senator-in-waiting since 2012. This is a huge surprise and recruiting failure

[Cynthia]

Would be ironic if she lost her House seat too.

It would have to be an exceptionally horrendous night for the GOP in order for that to happen. She's a pretty good fit for my district, and she won by over 20% last time.

Yeah suburban St Louis is not fertile ground for Dems... yet

If Dems win that seat they probably would reach.. 300..

[krazen1211]

Hawley got more votes than even champion of the people Donald Trump! He reminds me of Tom Cotton.

Air Claire is gonna get Blanched.

[Pollster]

This is not a recruitment fail and is incredibly good news for the GOP. We tested numerous lines of attack against Wagner from both the left and right and she sunk like a stone. GOP wants Hawley who is a much stronger candidate and will likely hold McCaskill under 50%.

[Young Conservative]

Hawley can definitely win. He won his AG election by 23 points.

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting article:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/attention-shifts-josh-hawley-missouri-senate-race

[DrScholl]

It's interesting now how Wagner is suddenly some bad candidate that did Republicans a favor by dropping out. That just seems like spin to make the recruitment failure seem better.

[Coraxion]

Oh my...

If mccaskill wins reelection i cringe at the nationwide protests and violence from the GOP. 

only your party acts like a room full of children when you lose

Oh shut up. Those reports of riots, arson, and looting on right-wing fake news sites were either heavily exaggerated or out-right fabricated. I live in a large city and none of that happened.

[Devout Centrist]

It's interesting now how Wagner is suddenly some bad candidate that did Republicans a favor by dropping out. That just seems like spin to make the recruitment failure seem better.

Wagner was too normal to get elected. The MO GOP needs a Trump clone to win and Hawley fits the bill. This election will come down to the GOP usual: misogynistic insinuation, ''Pelosi's puppet,'' video clips of McCaskill with Hillary. Trump will come down to MO and drop the usual lies: McCaskill wants to take your guns, she loves illegals, she's a 2 out of 10 at her best. Who knows...maybe Hawley and Trump might wrestle during a campaign rally to fire up the base. Your beginning to see the winning strategy for the GOP being field tested in real life.

Worked really well for Senator Akin.

Which is to say, no it's not a winning strategy without Hillary Clinton at the top of a ticket.

[BuckeyeNut]

This is not a recruitment fail and is incredibly good news for the GOP. We tested numerous lines of attack against Wagner from both the left and right and she sunk like a stone. GOP wants Hawley who is a much stronger candidate and will likely hold McCaskill under 50%.

This may well be true, but it's bad optics. Makes McCaskill look strong.

[MT Treasurer]

This is not a recruitment fail and is incredibly good news for the GOP. We tested numerous lines of attack against Wagner from both the left and right and she sunk like a stone. GOP wants Hawley who is a much stronger candidate and will likely hold McCaskill under 50%.

This may well be true, but it's bad optics. Makes McCaskill look strong.

Uh, I doubt it. In any case, McCaskill is a much worse fit for the state than Kander and Hawley a better one than Blunt, so it's not as if race will be an uphill battle for the GOP (but again: not saying they can take it for granted). 

Now if Hawley doesn't run, I'm not sure who will get the nomination. Hopefully not someone like Sam Graves or Billy Long.

[Skunk]

Maybe Austin Petersen will get the nomination now.

[MarkD]

Would be ironic if she lost her House seat too.

It would have to be an exceptionally horrendous night for the GOP in order for that to happen. She's a pretty good fit for my district, and she won by over 20% last time.

Yeah suburban St Louis is not fertile ground for Dems... yet

Suburban/Exurban St. Louis, when talking about West County (Chesterfield, Ballwin, Wildwood), portions of Mid County (Ladue, Frontenac, Clayton), and St. Charles County, are still GOP-friendly territory.
North County (Florissant, Ferguson, Hazelwood) is big-time Democratic, and South County (Affton, Oakville) is fairly swingy if slightly D-leaning.

Here are more details about St. Louis County, regarding the differences between MO-01 and MO-02.
As of 2016, about 37% of St. Louis County voters cast ballots in MO-01, and they are very, very heavily Democratic; just a few percentage points less so than within the city of St. Louis. MO-01-St.-Louis-County voted 75% for Clinton. There are only a fistful of precincts anywhere in MO-01-St.-Louis-County that are predominantly Republican.
MO-02-St.-Louis-County is Republican-leaning, but there are several dozen precincts within it that are predominantly Democratic, mostly precincts near the border of MO-01, although more than a dozen are scattered around miles away from that border. Comparing how well Trump performed in MO-02-St.-Louis-County to Romney's performance in 2012, Trump lost over 6% points (56.43% for Romney; 50.16% for Trump). Kander beat Blunt in MO-02-St.-Louis-County by about 6,800 votes! When you add MO-02-St.-Charles-County and MO-02-Jefferson-County, Kander lost MO-02 by a little over 600 votes, a fraction over 1%.
(Sorry, JGibson, but Oakville is predominantly Republican.)
Ann Wagner IS pretty likely to be safe in her district, even if the Democrats recruit a top-tier challenger like Sen. Scott Sifton; she led the GOP ticket throughout MO-02, even winning dozens of precincts that lean Democratic in almost all other contests.

[The_Doctor]

Looked up Josh Hawley. Taking Pollster's comment in this thread and what I know about Air Claire (I have nothing against McCaskill, I just like the ring of that name) in 2012, and given the state's inleastic lean and march to the right in the 2010s, I'm tempted to believe that without a bruising GOP nomination fight and a strong electoral win under his belt, Hawley wins 2018 for the Republicans. (I've had Missouri as a GOP pickup anyway).

[Kingpoleon]

I wish Jo Ann Emerson would run. I will probably support her if she runs.