MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[SATW]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

Aren't you the one who constantly talked about how transgender people "may be" mentally ill?

Yea, Hartzler has always seemed to be a massive HP and an awful politician. If she runs/win the nomination, I'll be backing McCaskill or a third party like I did in 2012 against Akin.

It is unacceptable for the MO GOP to continuously allow jokes like Todd Akin and Vicky Hartzler damage the party brand and wreak havoc politically.

Would you back a hawk/neocon like Petersen?

Petersen isn't a hawk, he's just not a crazy non-interventionist/isolationist. But, yes, I like Petersen. He is very personable and I've interacted w/ him on social media a decemt amount of times. I'd be happy w/ Hawley or Petersen.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/895825794496319488

Petersen visits the Missouri State Fair

[RogueBeaver]

Pro-Hawley Super PAC up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

Aren't you the one who constantly talked about how transgender people "may be" mentally ill?

Quote where I said that.

[_]

Pro-Hawley Super PAC up.

Here we go.

[_]

Pro-Hawley Super PAC up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdng-RwTHyQ

[Fudotei]

So just for noting purposes, I'm fully behind a Hawley for Senate run. Should he run I think he's fully qualified to serve as a Senator and seems to command enough of my respect that it's not worth throwing the election away to the political class. Hawley (who eyes the SCOTUS moreso than the Senate), I think, is sufficiently not-aiming-to-be-President to be a decent legislator.

So I'll keep the Lean R, the state still likes him. I don't suspect "Trump is mediocre in Missouri" naturally translates to Hawley in a midterm, unless the situation gets a lot worse.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-faces-primary-challenge-from-the-left-by-political-novice/article_07e766f7-ec81-5a29-bd88-254d19e07a58.html

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Bad news for McCaskill, as Earl almost certainly will earn an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. Paired with a likely run from Hawley, I put this at Lean R (but it's closer to Tossup).

[Rjjr77]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-faces-primary-challenge-from-the-left-by-political-novice/article_07e766f7-ec81-5a29-bd88-254d19e07a58.html

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Bad news for McCaskill, as Earl almost certainly will earn an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. Paired with a likely run from Hawley, I put this at Lean R (but it's closer to Tossup).

Earl will likely get zero money or funding and will be a non-factor in this race completely.

[Coraxion]

These fools caused Blanche to get, well, Blanched. They will be the death of the party if they aren't stopped.

[I’m not Stu]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

[Rjjr77]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

Petersen. but it would be closer than most anyone else.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.

[I’m not Stu]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.

Would McCaskill lose to a no-name Republican like Aaron Hedlund or David Humphreys?

[Rjjr77]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.

Would McCaskill lose to a no-name Republican like Aaron Hedlund or David Humphreys?

most likely.

McCaskill will lose to almost any republican unless the republican does something to specifically screw it up. If the MOGOP put one of those inflatable swaying guys they grabbed from out front of a Caruthersville car dealership it would beat McCaskill

[I’m not Stu]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

[Coraxion]

McCaskill is not DOA.

[Mike Thick]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

She should win that. I feel like (based on past behavior) Petersen is the kind of candidate who starts out decent but isn't able to make friends with important people/groups and eventually cracks under the pressure.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

[Heisenberg]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

McCaskill I think. The "liberty" movement is not mainstream enough, he'd make enemies with the wrong people (McConnell, the religious right, etc.), his views on trade, borders, and his atheism will keep him from replicating Trump's towering margins in the rural counties, his popularity with #NeverTrumpers will also hurt him with "the base", and he seems prone to say something really stupid. And let's not forget McCaskill has a history of over performing in pretty Republican areas.

[MT Treasurer]

Petersen will never be the nominee, I don't know why people are so obsessed with him.

[Coraxion]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

The presidential doesn't mean anything for this race. Missouri still has competitive races for statewide offices so long as the Democrat is competent. McCaskill definitely isn't incompetent.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

The presidential doesn't mean anything for this race. Missouri still has competitive races for statewide offices so long as the Democrat is competent. McCaskill definitely isn't incompetent.

Sure, if your definition of competitive is a republican winning by 7 or 8 points.

[I’m not Stu]

Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.

[Heisenberg]

Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.

I wouldn't call Blunt entrenched, he had only been there for one term. For a Senator to be entrenched, I'd say they have to be at least done with the second term and running for a third, but that's debatable. Though he was in the House for a long time before. Anyway, what I think really hurt Blunt was his preceived "insider" status in the "outsider" year (he served in House leadership w/Gingrich, Hastert, and DeLay; names of the past).