MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Heisenberg]

Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.

I wouldn't call Blunt entrenched, he had only been there for one term. For a Senator to be entrenched, I'd say they have to be at least done with the second term and running for a third, but that's debatable. Though he was in the House for a long time before. Anyway, what I think really hurt Blunt was his preceived "insider" status in the "outsider" year (he served in House leadership w/Gingrich, Hastert, and DeLay; names of the past).

[RogueBeaver]

CFG has raised $10M for Hawley.

[Rjjr77]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

The presidential doesn't mean anything for this race. Missouri still has competitive races for statewide offices so long as the Democrat is competent. McCaskill definitely isn't incompetent.

McCaskill incompetent? no. Talented? no.  She's one of the most disliked senators in the country, has tons of baggage, is out of touch with her state, and shes been unbelievably lucky.

Her political luck is not her creation, from running against a GOP candidate for Auditor who had been convicted of fraud to Akin, shes been blessed with good D years and REALLY bad R candidates. Air Claire is going down unless an R screws it up. If even a no-name state candidate (you have to remember, the majority of politicians are no-name, theres probably decent chunk of missouri voters who dont know who McCaskill is) can run a boring run of the mill campaign and barely open their mouth and win.

[MT Treasurer]

CFG has raised $10M for Hawley.

Good. National Republicans are also already running radio ads against her.

Link to the most recent ad.

[windjammer]

Money doesn't matter as much as people seem to believe as long both candidates are well-funded, and that will be the case.

[Fudotei]

https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/897495489888833536

Schmitt out.

Field is cleared if Hawley wants to run; if Schmitt's refusing to run and C4G is raising double-digit millions a year ahead, he'd be a fool not to take the opportunity. Senators can go on the Supreme Court, no issue with that. Harold Burton did it. I think the field's set; Hawley/McCaskill for 2018 Senate. Jesus! This far out, they'll put half a billion into this race.

[_]

All this money and these ads prove is that the GOP is going to put a lot into defeating McCaskill, and won't let another Akin appear.

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/897495489888833536

Schmitt out.

Field is cleared if Hawley wants to run; ... I think the field's set; Hawley/McCaskill for 2018 Senate.

And another one has cleared the way for Hawley too. Speaker Todd Richardson has chosen to compete for the other statewide race in Missouri next year.

Jesus! This far out, they'll put half a billion into this race.

Gee, I'm so glad I don't watch TV any more.

[_]

https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/897495489888833536

Schmitt out.

Field is cleared if Hawley wants to run; ... I think the field's set; Hawley/McCaskill for 2018 Senate.

And another one has cleared the way for Hawley too. Speaker Todd Richardson has chosen to compete for the other statewide race in Missouri next year.

Jesus! This far out, they'll put half a billion into this race.

Gee, I'm so glad I don't watch TV any more.

They won't spend half a billion here, if you want to see half a Billion spent watch IL-Gov, it'll be f***ing horrifying, every single channel will have at least 2 ads an hour.

[Suburbia]

I think former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman should run for this seat if Hawley implodes. She could beat McCaskill by at least 4-8 points.

As for McCaskill, if she loses in 2018, she can be a political commentator or go back to private law.

[Heisenberg]

I think former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman should run for this seat if Hawley implodes. She could beat McCaskill by at least 4-8 points.

As for McCaskill, if she loses in 2018, she can be a political commentator or go back to private law.

What makes you think Hawley may implode? And I think Steelman is just a has-been now, she's lost several races recently, and is one loss away from becoming a perennial candidate.

[Suburbia]

I think former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman should run for this seat if Hawley implodes. She could beat McCaskill by at least 4-8 points.

As for McCaskill, if she loses in 2018, she can be a political commentator or go back to private law.

What makes you think Hawley may implode? And I think Steelman is just a has-been now, she's lost several races recently, and is one loss away from becoming a perennial candidate.

Steelman has the energy that could make McCaskill angry in debates, and she could do well in the suburbs of Kansas City and St. Louis. She would do well in Todd Akin and Ann Wagner's district.

[Ebsy]

Career criminal Josh Hawley is in trouble!

[Kamala]

Career criminal Josh Hawley is in trouble!

"Air Claire" Flight 2018 will successfully land again.


I'm kidding obviously, but Hawley is making rookie mistakes here. Voting where he shouldn't, talking about future ambitions, etc. If McCaskill wins, it's because Hawley will die a death by 1,000 cuts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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[Young Conservative]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

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[KingSweden]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

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That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another one of those illegal voters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

I poked around the Missouri statutes and AG seems to be the only state office with this requirement.

[KingSweden]

Another one of those illegal voters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

I poked around the Missouri statutes and AG seems to be the only state office with this requirement.

I wonder what the reasoning is, especially for just ONE office like that

[GlobeSoc]

Another one of those illegal voters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

I poked around the Missouri statutes and AG seems to be the only state office with this requirement.

I wonder what the reasoning is, especially for just ONE office like that

Time travellers seeking to troll Hawley?!?

[mcmikk]

Another one of those illegal voters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

I poked around the Missouri statutes and AG seems to be the only state office with this requirement.

I wonder what the reasoning is, especially for just ONE office like that

Time travellers seeking to troll Hawley?!?

[Hindsight was 2020]

So much for her being DOA. Seriously imagine if 2018 hits Trump an the GOP hard enough they not only lose the house but the senate as well (an by win I'm talking a likely 50-50 with Mike as a tie breaker)

[Hindsight was 2020]

So much for her being DOA. Seriously imagine if 2018 hits Trump an the GOP hard enough they not only lose the house but the senate as well (an by win I'm talking a likely 50-50 with Mike as a tie breaker)

[Coraxion]

So much for her being DOA. Seriously imagine if 2018 hits Trump an the GOP hard enough they not only lose the house but the senate as well (an by win I'm talking a likely 50-50 with Mike as a tie breaker)

That seems to be more and more likely every day.