MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[KingSweden]

12 years is good run for any Senator

[KingSweden]

Well, let's operate under the hypothetical assumption that 2018 ends up being a Democratic year. One question we've never answered is, can an unpopular incumbent senator be defeated in a state that leans against that incumbent during a wave for that incumbent's party? Tom Wolf showed us that the answer is yes for governors, but I wonder how this pans out in a senatorial election.

Interesting point re: Tom Wolf.

I think McCaskill, IMO, is in a worse position than Tester or Heitkamp.

[KingSweden]

Man, Wagner seemed like a sure thing. Crazy if Hawley pips her to the nom

[KingSweden]

Would be ironic if she lost her House seat too.

It would have to be an exceptionally horrendous night for the GOP in order for that to happen. She's a pretty good fit for my district, and she won by over 20% last time.

Yeah suburban St Louis is not fertile ground for Dems... yet

[KingSweden]

Still a Tossup, btw, but Wagner was a serious opponent. Don't know where this idea she'd have been weak comes from - she was Senator-in-waiting since 2012. This is a huge surprise and recruiting failure

[KingSweden]

I still think GOP is making a mistake preffing this guy over Wagner. But we'll see

[KingSweden]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

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That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

[KingSweden]

Another one of those illegal voters?

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Why does this law exist in the first place? Also, why should he permanently move to Jefferson City? McCaskill still votes in Missouri even though she (like all senators except a select few like Ben sadse) lives in Washington.

Ask the Missouri legislature.  It looks like the law has been on the books for many years.

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That's an excessively stupid law - however, when you're the Attorney General you should know that this applies to you

I poked around the Missouri statutes and AG seems to be the only state office with this requirement.

I wonder what the reasoning is, especially for just ONE office like that

[KingSweden]

Interesting piece on McCaskill's campaign tactics:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/30/claire-mccaskill-senate-dems-2018-215556

Exactly what she should be doing.

NE Missouri has always been kind to her. That'll be the region to watch next fall

[KingSweden]

I don't believe that McCaskill is as vulnerable as people think. 

Why is that?

[KingSweden]

I just read on twitter that a referendum to overturn right to work was put on the ballot along with the Senate race. I don't think McCaskill had a turnout problem before, but now she certainly doesn't.

It can’t hurt, at least

[KingSweden]

Hawley will have the AFP network helping him but still, those are not impressive numbers

[KingSweden]

Two ways to interpret that.

Either Wagner has seen polling suggesting she’d steamroll Claire (unlikely, but good chance she’d win)

OR

Polling shows Hawley ain’t doing too hot and Wagner is being recruited to save the race (possible)

[KingSweden]

If Wagner runs, could she win the primary?

Oh easily

[KingSweden]

More intrigue within the cabal if MO GOP grandees:

http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article198683639.html?__twitter_impression=true

[KingSweden]

That 27-year-old who won the Missouri general assembly seat last night ran against Right to Work and on a general pro-labor platform. Is McCaskill doing anything with unions and the upcoming RTW ballot referendum?

She would be dumb not to. I’ve suspected the unions put RTW on the 2018 ballot specifically to help Claire.

[KingSweden]

That 27-year-old who won the Missouri general assembly seat last night ran against Right to Work and on a general pro-labor platform. Is McCaskill doing anything with unions and the upcoming RTW ballot referendum?

She would be dumb not to. I’ve suspected the unions put RTW on the 2018 ballot specifically to help Claire.

Missouri's Constitution allowed them to delay the law by gathering enough signatures to place it on the ballot. Those unions are fighting for their lives.

Ah didn’t know that was how it worked (that’s how it is here in Washington, too).

[KingSweden]

Obama to fundraise for Claire in California
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-obama-coming-to-california-to-raise-1522379777-htmlstory.html#nt=card

the optics of claire fundraising money from california for a missouri senate race is not good lol

It’s not worth the money. These optics are horrible.

tbf it's not like josh hawley is getting small donor money either. ain't no regular people donating to his tuck ass lol

I can’t imagine any gettable Missouri voter is going to be swayed by something small like this, particularly when the current President lies about his relation with diplomats at a fundraiser for Harley doody

It absolutely sways people when McCaskill banks on reducing GOP rural margins to win.

Given that a whopping 128,000 people are donating money to Mccaskill in just 3 months, it's clear she has genuine grassroots support.

Over half of that is from ActBlue. I would be surprised is the majority of those are Missourians.

A fair point, though I imagine it’s a similar case for Hawley, too.

[KingSweden]

Or, simplest explanation, Greitens is a self-absorbed twat doing this to be douchey

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/986737552479735808

They're destroying each other. I love it.

Umm this is helping Hawley if anything

I don’t see how it helps. Not that I think it hurts much either, mind.

[KingSweden]

The MOGOP nudged Wagner aside for this guy?

[KingSweden]

Gropin Grietens is going scorched Earth:

https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/994274499813150720

No doubt this helps McCaskill

When it comes to Fifty Shades of Greitens’ troll game - hate the playa, love the game

[KingSweden]

Eric Greitens right now:

https://youtu.be/B3lsJmwNO40

[KingSweden]

Politico: GOP golden boy mails it in

Essentially Josh Hawley doesn't like to campaign. He's been skipping debates and county Lincoln Day dinners across the state. Plus:

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And the Greitens saga isn’t even really brought up until the end. Hawley is really not in a position to run a lazy campaign.

[KingSweden]

There’s still a lot of time for Hawley to turn the ship around, even if he’s been underwhelming so far compared to the hype.