MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

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[MT Treasurer]

I don't know why Democrats can't do well in rural Missouri. Missouri Democrats need to plan their future very quickly.

Maybe because they're too liberal for Missouri?

Tester is safe. He has a stronger incumbency bonus (since he won twice).

LOL. You consider a Senator with a 44/50 approval rating (PPP, November 21, 2013) safe?

[MT Treasurer]

Group accuses McCaskill of violating federal campaign finance laws

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[MT Treasurer]

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Senator Claire McCaskill Tells Men to "Shut The Hell Up"

But do men know how to "shut that whole thing down"? LOL

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill confirms 2018 run

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[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill "absolutely" seeking reelection, saying that people counted her out in 2005 and 2011 as well

So yeah, no chance of Kander or Koster running in 2018, Jimmie.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, let's operate under the hypothetical assumption that 2018 ends up being a Democratic year. One question we've never answered is, can an unpopular incumbent senator be defeated in a state that leans against that incumbent during a wave for that incumbent's party? Tom Wolf showed us that the answer is yes for governors, but I wonder how this pans out in a senatorial election.

Yeah, even in this Republican year, three Republican candidates (Ayotte, Kirk, Heck) lost.

Anyway:

Wagner Quits Leadership Posts, Signaling Potential Senate Run

[MT Treasurer]

You lost the presidency, you didn't make any significant gains in the House, you failed to win back the Senate despite the favorable map and Trump running a terrible campaign, you lost two governorships and you lost several state legislatures. If that's not worse than 2014, what is?

Anyway, I never predicted that Republicans would easily win states like PA and MI in 2018. That's another strawman right there. All I'm saying is that I don't think Democrats will easily hold Senate seats in states in which Trump won by more than 10 points. There is no doubt that Democrats are in a better position now than if Clinton had won, though (unless Trump has approvals in the 60s, lol). Another thing to keep in mind is that while Republicans did well in states that Romney won in 2014, they underperformed in blue states won by Obama - they lost NH, VA and only narrowly won CO (despite the fact that Udall ran a terrible campaign and Gardner was a very strong recruit). The only exception was Iowa, but we all know that the state is trending away from Democrats. Also, even in 2016 Republicans weren't able to win in NV, NH and IL. So the general trend seems to be that blue states are not willing to vote for Republican Senate candidates anymore and red states are not willing to vote for Democratic Senate candidates. The swing states (FL, PA, etc.) are still very much up for grabs. It's why I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dean Heller lost but if Tester, Heitkamp, Donnely, etc. all lost as well.

[MT Treasurer]

He won't get the R nomination, but even if he does, McCaskill won't win "comfortably", lmao. Atlas believing that McCaskill is some titan who is heavily favored for reelection is truly one of the most ridiculous things I've seen on this forum.

Edit: I think she could win simply because the MO Republican Party is so terrible, but people here are seriously underestimating how vulnerable she is. I'd be shocked if she wins reelection against a non-joke Republican.

[MT Treasurer]

He won't get the R nomination, but even if he does, McCaskill won't win "comfortably", lmao. Atlas believing that McCaskill is some titan who is heavily favored for reelection is truly one of the most ridiculous things I've seen on this forum.

You know I don't believe she's favored to win against generic R, I just think Petersen would be a poor opponent.

Yeah, but how do you know he is so unelectable that he would lose "comfortably"? I know the MO GOP is terribly incompetent (which is the only bright spot for her), but Petersen is no Akin and McCaskill is no Kander either.  He might not be a good fit for his state, but neither is she. I'm more afraid of Sam Graves or Billy Long blowing the race, honestly.

[MT Treasurer]

Kander, quashing speculation, sends fundraising appeal for McCaskill

Doesn't look like he's running, but who knows. Anyway, here's also an interesting list and discussion of potential Republican candidates.

Link.

[MT Treasurer]

If McCaskill wins, I think a lot of Republicans will have a meltdown LOL. Maybe it's the best if I mentally prepare for a McCaskill victory.

[MT Treasurer]

A message for all the McCaskill fanboys in this thread

Also wtf, why shouldn't Republicans target McCaskill? That's as if someone said in 2016 that Democrats shouldn't target Mark Kirk, lol. McCaskill is about as moderate as Liz Warren.

McCaskill is entrenched! She will win in 2018!

GOP should focus on North Dakota and Indiana and protecting Nevada and Arizona (both of which will likely flip), as well as protecting their very vulnerable House majority.

And this guy calls Republicans delusional....

[MT Treasurer]

Only 18 more months of this nonsense.

But yeah... while the voting records of these red-state Democrats are very similar and almost identical, the only difference is that the others know how to act like moderates and are therefore going to be much more difficult to beat. So I guess I should be thankful that McCaskill is doing everything to make sure she doesn't get entrenched, unlike people like Manchin or Heitkamp.

[MT Treasurer]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

Excellent news! While I have little doubt that Hawley could beat her as well, Wagner is from the right part of the state and a very strong candidate.

GOP recruitment in MO, IN, WV and FL is looking really good, but ND and MT aren't encouraging so far. Not sure about Mandel.

[MT Treasurer]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

Excellent news! While I have little doubt that Hawley could beat her as well, Wagner is from the right part of the state and a very strong candidate.

GOP recruitment in MO, IN, WV and FL is looking really good, but ND and MT aren't encouraging so far. Not sure about Mandel.

Are you assuming Rick Scott will get in?

I'd be shocked if he declined to run. And tbh, he's the only one who could even put a fight against Nelson. Apparently some people think that Tim Fox will run against Tester (he's been campaigning for Pianoforte and has been more visible recently), but I'm not convinced yet. ND is shaping up to be a bloodbath for the GOP and it looks like there's also going to be a nasty primary in WI, IN and potentially WV.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Hawley will be the nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

I know the McCaskill fan club is grasping at straws, but can we stop pretending that this guy will be the nominee?

[MT Treasurer]

Petersen isn't DOA

In the general? No, though I agree that he'd be a weak candidate.
In the primary? Yes.

I'll be very surprised if the nominee isn't either Hawley or Wagner. In any case, I hope Missouri Republicans have learned their lesson from 2012 and 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill is "back in the news", so to speak:

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http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/mccaskill-russian-ambassador/index.html
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article159180434.html
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Claire-McCaskill-meeting-ambassador-Twitter/2017/06/26/id/798359/

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting article:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/attention-shifts-josh-hawley-missouri-senate-race

[MT Treasurer]

This is not a recruitment fail and is incredibly good news for the GOP. We tested numerous lines of attack against Wagner from both the left and right and she sunk like a stone. GOP wants Hawley who is a much stronger candidate and will likely hold McCaskill under 50%.

This may well be true, but it's bad optics. Makes McCaskill look strong.

Uh, I doubt it. In any case, McCaskill is a much worse fit for the state than Kander and Hawley a better one than Blunt, so it's not as if race will be an uphill battle for the GOP (but again: not saying they can take it for granted). 

Now if Hawley doesn't run, I'm not sure who will get the nomination. Hopefully not someone like Sam Graves or Billy Long.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, one thing is clear: This thread is going to be bumped on Nov. 7, 2018, regardless of who wins.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

He won't be the nominee, and this race is winnable for Republicans (in fact, I still think it's the seat most likely to flip, followed by IN and NV).

[MT Treasurer]

If Hawley declines to run, Eric Schmitt might become the new "front-runner".