MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Heisenberg]

McCaskill confirms 2018 run

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Yes! Hopefully we can finally beat her!

[Heisenberg]

He won't get the R nomination, but even if he does, McCaskill won't win "comfortably", lmao. Atlas believing that McCaskill is some titan who is heavily favored for reelection is truly one of the most ridiculous things I've seen on this forum.

Petersen won't win (primary or general), and I imagine McCaskill would do well (for a Democrat) in the rural, social conservative areas. Yes, Petersen is pro-life and pro-gun, and McCaskill isn't either, but McCaskill has been around for a while, and seems to be pretty religious, while Petersen is openly atheist, and calls himself "very culturally liberal" as well (again, McCaskill is no conservadem, but she is no Elizabeth Warren either and has been taking the right steps).

[Heisenberg]

Prominent Republicans trying to draft Hawley.

Ugh, why? It looks way too nakedly ambitious after just three months, and he only won because of Trump's super coat tails (If Trump only won by 9, like Romeny, Blunt and half of the row ballot statewide Republicans would have lost). Hawley would lose to McCaskill, he's way too "bible thumping" for suburban KC/STL. Wagner needs t be the nominee.

[Heisenberg]

Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Hear two issues are holding up @HawleyMO Sen bid: real family concerns & trepidation running for Sen could upend future SCOTUS prospects

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/885228892365127680

Why would he think he could be SCOTUS?  Run for Senate man.

Yeah, Trump likely won't pick him, he's not on either of the two lists (though his philosophy is just like a judge on the list), but him being an elected official with no experience on a state or federal bench, that could make the hearings tougher. Also, if his dream job is SCOTUS, you don't contemplate running for Senate AND make that clear. That's not how it works, it makes it sound like he's climbing up he same ladder he used in his attack ads. Anyway, I hope all is well with the Hawley family.

[Heisenberg]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers, but it will be reduced in a few years, IIRC. EDIT: Never mind.

[Heisenberg]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

Pro-SSM, yeah. Pro-choice, not really.

I think he meant more fiscally conservative?

[Heisenberg]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

There is not and will never be another Donald Trump in any election. There just aren't many people with 30+ years of name ID with popular TV shows.

What he means I guess is pulling away from a large crowded primary and winning in an upset? Anyway, while I won't underestimate anyone, Petersen probably won't win it, and if he does, I think he'll struggle in the general. He's too culturally liberal and fiscally libertarian to do well in the swingy areas, and McCaskill actually isn't that bad a fit for them. Once they look into things like Petersen's atheism, avowed "cultural liberalism," his open borders views, flat tax, gutting SS and Medicare, etc. that'll turn many of them off. I just don't see him winning, say, Ste. Genevieve County, or Clay County.

[Heisenberg]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

McCaskill I think. The "liberty" movement is not mainstream enough, he'd make enemies with the wrong people (McConnell, the religious right, etc.), his views on trade, borders, and his atheism will keep him from replicating Trump's towering margins in the rural counties, his popularity with #NeverTrumpers will also hurt him with "the base", and he seems prone to say something really stupid. And let's not forget McCaskill has a history of over performing in pretty Republican areas.

[Heisenberg]

Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.

I wouldn't call Blunt entrenched, he had only been there for one term. For a Senator to be entrenched, I'd say they have to be at least done with the second term and running for a third, but that's debatable. Though he was in the House for a long time before. Anyway, what I think really hurt Blunt was his preceived "insider" status in the "outsider" year (he served in House leadership w/Gingrich, Hastert, and DeLay; names of the past).

[Heisenberg]

Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.

I wouldn't call Blunt entrenched, he had only been there for one term. For a Senator to be entrenched, I'd say they have to be at least done with the second term and running for a third, but that's debatable. Though he was in the House for a long time before. Anyway, what I think really hurt Blunt was his preceived "insider" status in the "outsider" year (he served in House leadership w/Gingrich, Hastert, and DeLay; names of the past).

[Heisenberg]

I think former Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman should run for this seat if Hawley implodes. She could beat McCaskill by at least 4-8 points.

As for McCaskill, if she loses in 2018, she can be a political commentator or go back to private law.

What makes you think Hawley may implode? And I think Steelman is just a has-been now, she's lost several races recently, and is one loss away from becoming a perennial candidate.

[Heisenberg]

Hawley will be in soon.

Yay!

[Heisenberg]

#TeamHawley

[Heisenberg]

I'm not entirely convinced that Hawley is as conservative as Bannon seems to think he is -- a lot of association with the Bush classes, the kind of business or old money Republicans that Bannon wants to get rid of.

But on policy, he seems to have his head straight. I'll vote for him, I just have a bad feeling.

Hawley is seen as a rising star, and has quickly united nearly all of the party behind him. If Bannon didn't back him, who else? He apparently tried to get Ed Martin in at one point, but he said no, and he sounds like another Tarkanian (as in perennial candidate who always loses). Rosendale and Mandel also seem to have coalesced both the establishment and grassroots around them.

[Heisenberg]

I'm surprised at Rep. Curtman dropping out of MO-Sen. Hawley has an important issue working against him, as mentioned above by PNM.
I'm also curious why that article did not mention that Rep. Richardson of Poplar Bluff is also considering running for Auditor.

Speaker Richardson said he's NOT running.

[Heisenberg]

Austin Petersen is pro catalan independence
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923948454824632321
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923949935854325761
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923950260019433472

Will this help or hurt him

I'd say neither, I honestly don't think many really care, and if they do, it's not that big an issue.

[Heisenberg]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

Dems would likely have a better shot of holding the seat if she did retire, assuming Kander took her spot.

That's what I was thinking, too. In response to their "handsome youngin' candidate," we bring out "handsome youngin' candidate." Except ours has a gun instead of a bottle of wine.

She also was diagnosed with breast cancer last year, but got it treated. I can certainly see Kander beating Hawley. If Petersen is somehow the nominee, Kander would mop the floor and win in a landslide.

[Heisenberg]

Hawley's throwing away a senate seat, and for what? Protecting Greitens?

It was never "his" to begin with. Yes, it has had its tilt and lean moments in both ways, rn tilt McCaskill, but this seat has been in play the whole time.

What Holmes means is, Hawley is throwing away his chances. His chances ARE his, just as McCaskill's chances are hers.