MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[MarkD]

The MO-SEN primary is going to be cluster.

Just the GOP primary, or both that and the Democratic primary? Will McCaskill face multiple opponents (like Blunt faced three minor opponents last year)?

[MarkD]

Would be ironic if she lost her House seat too.

It would have to be an exceptionally horrendous night for the GOP in order for that to happen. She's a pretty good fit for my district, and she won by over 20% last time.

Yeah suburban St Louis is not fertile ground for Dems... yet

Suburban/Exurban St. Louis, when talking about West County (Chesterfield, Ballwin, Wildwood), portions of Mid County (Ladue, Frontenac, Clayton), and St. Charles County, are still GOP-friendly territory.
North County (Florissant, Ferguson, Hazelwood) is big-time Democratic, and South County (Affton, Oakville) is fairly swingy if slightly D-leaning.

Here are more details about St. Louis County, regarding the differences between MO-01 and MO-02.
As of 2016, about 37% of St. Louis County voters cast ballots in MO-01, and they are very, very heavily Democratic; just a few percentage points less so than within the city of St. Louis. MO-01-St.-Louis-County voted 75% for Clinton. There are only a fistful of precincts anywhere in MO-01-St.-Louis-County that are predominantly Republican.
MO-02-St.-Louis-County is Republican-leaning, but there are several dozen precincts within it that are predominantly Democratic, mostly precincts near the border of MO-01, although more than a dozen are scattered around miles away from that border. Comparing how well Trump performed in MO-02-St.-Louis-County to Romney's performance in 2012, Trump lost over 6% points (56.43% for Romney; 50.16% for Trump). Kander beat Blunt in MO-02-St.-Louis-County by about 6,800 votes! When you add MO-02-St.-Charles-County and MO-02-Jefferson-County, Kander lost MO-02 by a little over 600 votes, a fraction over 1%.
(Sorry, JGibson, but Oakville is predominantly Republican.)
Ann Wagner IS pretty likely to be safe in her district, even if the Democrats recruit a top-tier challenger like Sen. Scott Sifton; she led the GOP ticket throughout MO-02, even winning dozens of precincts that lean Democratic in almost all other contests.

[MarkD]

How about McCaskill v. Eric Schmitt?

He's fairly young; last year he won the Missouri Treasurer race by a wide margin.

[MarkD]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

[MarkD]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers.

He's not as obscure as most of the 163. I have been reading about Curtman in the St. Louis news a number of times in the last 4 years. He's been pretty good at getting the attention of, and being quoted by, the St. Louis media. I can't say whether he's as well-known around the rest of the state.

EDIT: Whoa.
One of his videos in that website has him going into a dubious re-interpretation of the word "inalienable" in the Declaration of Independence. He says the actual word used in the Declaration was not "inalienable," but "un-a-LIEN-a-ble." He emphasizes that the middle syllable of the word is "lien," using the example of a local government placing a lien on your property, thus prohibiting you from selling it or building on it. "Un-a-LIEN-a-ble" rights are those rights which government cannot "place a hold on." Listen to the unusual way he pronounces the word.

[MarkD]

But it's sometimes difficult to make a clear separation between these liberal/moderate/conservative labels. It may differ from issue to issue. I would label myself as a pragmatic liberal/progressive, but would usually be classified as moderate on economic and fiscal issues.

I agree. Ideology exists in a spectrum, not in three neat cubby holes.

McCaskill is in between a liberal and a moderate. I gauge the ideology of a member of Congress by using an average of their approval scores from Americans for Democratic Action and American Conservative Union. McCaskill's average score from Americans for Democratic Action (for the first nine years she's been in the Senate - 2007 to 2015, inclusive (for some reason ADA has not yet released their scores for the year 2016)) is 81.1% while her average score from American Conservative Union (for the first ten years in the Senate) is 12.2%.

[MarkD]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

SSM yes, not pro choice.

This is probably true, but I also wonder how many young Missouri Republicans take a stance similar to that of Sen. Rob Portman, given what he said when Obergefell v. Hodges was handed down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I completely agree with what Sen. Portman said, not only because of the practical political consequence that he mentioned, but more importantly because what the Supreme Court did in Obergefell v. Hodges has nothing at all to do with what the clauses in Section 1 of the 14th Amendment were intended to mean. I would hope that many young Missouri Republicans would agree with Sen. Portman and myself that we wanted same-sex marriage to become legal, but it should not have happened because of judicial decrees that are completely erroneous. It should have happened via legislation (eight U.S. states and recently the country of Germany) or via popular referendums (three U.S. states and the country of Ireland). All of the judicial decrees, starting with the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court in 2003, should stink profoundly to all Republicans, both those that are pro-SSM and those opposed to it.

[MarkD]

Does Hawley run?

I have not seen any news sources other than Newsmax say that he's running, but it was reported, by Newsmax's John Gizzi, two days ago that, "several sources in the Show-Me State told Newsmax that Republican State Attorney General Josh Hawley has decided to take on two-term Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill."
It was in the Twitter link in the bottom of the previous page and reposted at the top of this page.
Here's the Newsmax article.
But no other stories available on the internet have confirmed he decided to run, only that he's being courted to run. Like USNews, and Courier Express. So if no other news sources are confirming it, I kind of wonder now how reliable Mr. Gizzi at Newsmax is. I edited the Wikipedia page about US Senate election, 2018 to add that Howley is in the race, using Newsmax as my source, but now I'm wondering if I should change it back until some other source confirms it too.

[MarkD]

Any other Republicans who might run?

According to The Missouri Times, the possibilities include:
Speaker Todd Richardson
David Wasinger
State Senator Mike Kehoe
NASCAR driver Carl Edwards
State Senator Ryan Silvey
Ed Martin
Former Speaker Catherine Hanaway
David Gregory
Former Speaker Tim Jones
State Senator Bill Eigel
(I'm not including those who are mentioned in the article but seem unlikely to run).

Treasurer Eric Schmitt is another possibility mentioned recently in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch as well as a recent Missouri Times piece.

[MarkD]

Hawley hasn't filed for candidacy yet.

He hasn't announced his intentions yet, but his boosters, like ex-Sen. Danforth, are confidently saying that he has decided to run. Danforth predicts that Hawley will announce in Sep. or Oct.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/21/josh-hawley-mum-senate-bid-but-others-buzzing/500185001/

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/897495489888833536

Schmitt out.

Field is cleared if Hawley wants to run; ... I think the field's set; Hawley/McCaskill for 2018 Senate.

And another one has cleared the way for Hawley too. Speaker Todd Richardson has chosen to compete for the other statewide race in Missouri next year.

Jesus! This far out, they'll put half a billion into this race.

Gee, I'm so glad I don't watch TV any more.

[MarkD]

I'm surprised at Rep. Curtman dropping out of MO-Sen. Hawley has an important issue working against him, as mentioned above by PNM.
I'm also curious why that article did not mention that Rep. Richardson of Poplar Bluff is also considering running for Auditor.

[MarkD]

Looks like McCaskill found her candidate.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/gop-senate-candidate-flips-womens-rights-want-come-home-cooked-dinner-every-night/

Don't kid yourself into thinking McCaskill could do something to help this guy win the primary.

[MarkD]

Republican Kristi Nichols is in.

Perennial candidate; she ran for the other Senate seat twice, both times losing to Roy Blunt, 2010 and 2016. She got 7% of the votes the first time, third place in the primary, and 20.2% of the vote second time, second place.

[MarkD]

Roy Moore endorses Courtland Sykes.

Seems fitting. I doubt Roy Moore holds much power of persuasion over Missouri Republican voters, though.

[MarkD]

McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare

Meh. That's not good enough to change my mind; I'm still likely going to vote for Libertarian Japheth Campbell.

[MarkD]

What do new voter registration number in Missouri indicate? (do they favor Dems. Repubs, about even , etc)?

In Missouri, we don't register to vote by party. Every registered voter is, officially, an independent.

[MarkD]

What do those who live in Missouri feel about the state of the race.  Is everything still up in the air... is one side pulling a little ahead, or do you have a feeling in general regarding who will pull out the win?

I have the race as Lean Hawley. That's the way the polling indicates it is playing out. I have a hard time seeing McCaskill being able to win any of the rural counties in the state, nor St. Charles or Greene Counties. She won't be able to overcome the strong R trend that was displayed in 2014 and 2016, and I don't see a Democratic "wave" coming in this year.

[MarkD]

McCaskill is facing some flack from her left flank.

She got 82.6% in the primary, with about 105,700 votes split among 6 minor opponents. If even half of those who voted against her end up refusing to vote for her in the GE, she is certainly in trouble.