MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Rjjr77]

Air Claire is DOA. It would take a worse candidate then Akin to save her

[Rjjr77]

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right? And yes, McCaskill is he kind of person to do that. I think I would know

"But Trump" isn't really a good strategy to win Senate races in states like MO and ND, but that's just my opinion. I mean, McCaskill is known for being opposed to like... 90% of Trump's agenda, so if he is so unpopular in MO, why isn't she doing well so far? (Yes, polling isn't reliable in general, but it's pretty obvious that she's in big trouble). I also believe that Gallup poll is understating his support, in all honesty. I'm not saying that he isn't terribly unpopular right now, but I really doubt he's going to be such a drag on the GOP in Missouri of all places like you seem to believe.

We'll see, but I really doubt she's going to retire. It will be interesting to see how the various red state Democrats fare in 2018, though. McCaskill and Tester have been much more vocal about their opposition to Trump (and Gorsuch) than Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, so I'm skeptical that they will get much crossover support in the general election (and Hawley and Rosendale/some of the other MT Republicans are fairly good candidates). The latter group can at least tout their bipartisan credentials even if Trump is popular in their states (which he almost certainly will be, at least in ND and WV) and it'll be much more difficult to attack them for being obstructionists (though they still will be, of course).

The point I'm trying to make is that if Trump is -25 or so nationwide like the polls all ondicate, then he's probably underwater in Missouri by around 5 points or so. Not enough for McCaskill IMO (but crazier things have happened), but probably enough for Kander in an open seat who has a lot of goodwill still around him. And frankly I don't think Trump will somehow improve those numbers. Anyone thinking otherwise apparently hasn't seen his presidency over the past 6 months.

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-averaged-higher-job-approval-states.aspx

looks like thats not the case in Missouri. +3.

[Rjjr77]

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right? And yes, McCaskill is he kind of person to do that. I think I would know

"But Trump" isn't really a good strategy to win Senate races in states like MO and ND, but that's just my opinion. I mean, McCaskill is known for being opposed to like... 90% of Trump's agenda, so if he is so unpopular in MO, why isn't she doing well so far? (Yes, polling isn't reliable in general, but it's pretty obvious that she's in big trouble). I also believe that Gallup poll is understating his support, in all honesty. I'm not saying that he isn't terribly unpopular right now, but I really doubt he's going to be such a drag on the GOP in Missouri of all places like you seem to believe.

We'll see, but I really doubt she's going to retire. It will be interesting to see how the various red state Democrats fare in 2018, though. McCaskill and Tester have been much more vocal about their opposition to Trump (and Gorsuch) than Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, so I'm skeptical that they will get much crossover support in the general election (and Hawley and Rosendale/some of the other MT Republicans are fairly good candidates). The latter group can at least tout their bipartisan credentials even if Trump is popular in their states (which he almost certainly will be, at least in ND and WV) and it'll be much more difficult to attack them for being obstructionists (though they still will be, of course).

The point I'm trying to make is that if Trump is -25 or so nationwide like the polls all ondicate, then he's probably underwater in Missouri by around 5 points or so. Not enough for McCaskill IMO (but crazier things have happened), but probably enough for Kander in an open seat who has a lot of goodwill still around him. And frankly I don't think Trump will somehow improve those numbers. Anyone thinking otherwise apparently hasn't seen his presidency over the past 6 months.

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-averaged-higher-job-approval-states.aspx

looks like thats not the case in Missouri. +3.

Maybe you should read the thread again and my responses to them. This was when Trump was -14 nationwide. He's over -20 now.

i'd roll my eyes but its not enough. There is too much assumption going on when it comes to Trump's approval ratings. Are these likely midterm voters? most likely not. How many republicans disapprove of Trump but will still vote for them? etc. etc. etc. I'd bet that trump is performing far better in approval polls in quite a few states when only likely voters are polled (heck many approval polls dont even poll registered voters, just all 18+ adults). when he was -14 in approval rating (all 18+ people) he was +3 with all 18+ people, I bet that number is a lot higher with registered and even higher with likely.

National approval polls should just not be utilized anymore, we should throw them out, just like nationwide horse race polls, look at the states individually. No more assumptions on where trump is in a poll in a state based on your "feelings"

[Rjjr77]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

There is not and will never be another Donald Trump in any election. There just aren't many people with 30+ years of name ID with popular TV shows.

[Rjjr77]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-faces-primary-challenge-from-the-left-by-political-novice/article_07e766f7-ec81-5a29-bd88-254d19e07a58.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bad news for McCaskill, as Earl almost certainly will earn an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. Paired with a likely run from Hawley, I put this at Lean R (but it's closer to Tossup).

Earl will likely get zero money or funding and will be a non-factor in this race completely.

[Rjjr77]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

Petersen. but it would be closer than most anyone else.

[Rjjr77]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.

Would McCaskill lose to a no-name Republican like Aaron Hedlund or David Humphreys?

most likely.

McCaskill will lose to almost any republican unless the republican does something to specifically screw it up. If the MOGOP put one of those inflatable swaying guys they grabbed from out front of a Caruthersville car dealership it would beat McCaskill

[Rjjr77]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

The presidential doesn't mean anything for this race. Missouri still has competitive races for statewide offices so long as the Democrat is competent. McCaskill definitely isn't incompetent.

McCaskill incompetent? no. Talented? no.  She's one of the most disliked senators in the country, has tons of baggage, is out of touch with her state, and shes been unbelievably lucky.

Her political luck is not her creation, from running against a GOP candidate for Auditor who had been convicted of fraud to Akin, shes been blessed with good D years and REALLY bad R candidates. Air Claire is going down unless an R screws it up. If even a no-name state candidate (you have to remember, the majority of politicians are no-name, theres probably decent chunk of missouri voters who dont know who McCaskill is) can run a boring run of the mill campaign and barely open their mouth and win.

[Rjjr77]

What Hawley did is not voter fraud.

[Rjjr77]

I think people here are severely underestimating how bad it looks to be running for Senate nine months into the job you promised voters you wouldn't use as a launching pad. My Trump supporting parents who don't like McCaskill are even pissed at this and they didn't even vote for her in her 2012 landslide.

Rosen and Hawley doing this is extremely stupid (not trying to do a both sides thing here. i agree its ridiculous).  I wish there was a law where, unless in extreme cases, you can't run for an office if you have not completed at least one term of your first, but I feel like that would run into too many problems.

Kinda hard to enact that law... seems like it would violate some sort of free speech claim

[Rjjr77]

I'm at least 90% sure that the Breitbart narrative of "conservatives coalescing around Hawley" is bunk. The man's a 37 year old Ivy League lawyer, not the type of grassroots or tough populist the Missouri GOP (which is increasingly radicalizing thanks to white suburbanites in St Louis county learning race tension exists) is looking for.

If Greitens was in his second term as governor he'd have McCaskill's seat on a diamond platter, I'm sure of that.

Its not bunk. the guy is just one of those republican unicorns who has something for every wing of the party.

[Rjjr77]

The next statewide Democrat to win in Missouri would have to carry Platte and Clay Counties by very healthy margins. Plus Greene County would have to be within single digits.
 
I actually think a lot of the voters that got Iron and Washington Counties as Democratic and St Francois county as close in 2008 are quite frankly dead. But as recently as 2012 Kander won Iron County in a very narrow statewide victory and lost Platte County iirc. . Fast forward four years he loses Iron County in a landslide but wins Platte County in a narrow statewide loss. Times have changed.

Largely political circles have underrated McCaskill and especially on Atlas I think being a female has a lot to do with it. We had polls showing Brown in Ohio down by similar margins as McCaskill yet no one has declared him DOA.

McCaskill and Brown cant be compared. Both are too far left for their state, but Missouri is further right than Ohio is, Brown is still relatively liked, McCaskill isnt.