MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

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When Wagner jumps in its Lean R and barring an Akins style gaffe she wins by about 5 points.

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@MT Treasurer: oh God, I think she might actually win again after watching this last week unfold.

>One week automatically decides an election 18 months away.

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@MT Treasurer: oh God, I think she might actually win again after watching this last week unfold.

>One week automatically decides an election 18 months away.

Key word is "might." He's been writing her off as an automatic pickup for months, and I think all of this news is certainly reason enough to think that her and Donnelly won't start off any worse than tossup.

I won't put them at tossup, and they've never been automatic, with Wagner in MO and Messer in IN its lean red for both, but if the perpetual scandal continues they can move to tossup.

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bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

Please god Peterson join the primary, he'll never win but he should siphon of Conservative votes and give Wagner the primary.

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McCaskill is "back in the news", so to speak:

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http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/mccaskill-russian-ambassador/index.html
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article159180434.html
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Claire-McCaskill-meeting-ambassador-Twitter/2017/06/26/id/798359/

I remember this from a couple months back, it just became a story again now?

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Now Lean R, this is a bit worrying, hopefully she just thought she wouldn't win the primary.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2018

Austin Petersen appears to be running as a Republican.

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Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Hear two issues are holding up @HawleyMO Sen bid: real family concerns & trepidation running for Sen could upend future SCOTUS prospects

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/885228892365127680

Why would he think he could be SCOTUS?  Run for Senate man.

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An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

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An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers.

He's not as obscure as most of the 163. I have been reading about Curtman in the St. Louis news a number of times in the last 4 years. He's been pretty good at getting the attention of, and being quoted by, the St. Louis media. I can't say whether he's as well-known around the rest of the state.

EDIT: Whoa.
One of his videos in that website has him going into a dubious re-interpretation of the word "inalienable" in the Declaration of Independence. He says the actual word used in the Declaration was not "inalienable," but "un-a-LIEN-a-ble." He emphasizes that the middle syllable of the word is "lien," using the example of a local government placing a lien on your property, thus prohibiting you from selling it or building on it. "Un-a-LIEN-a-ble" rights are those rights which government cannot "place a hold on." Listen to the unusual way he pronounces the word.

Oh no I see where he's going with this...

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Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

SSM yes, not pro choice.

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Hartzler out.

Thank god.

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The GOP is really having a hard time finding candidates across a bunch of red state Dem seats.

Hartzler would have been McCaskill's preferred candidate.

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Hawley running
https://mobile.twitter.com/johngizzi/status/887149188865298432

Finally, praise the lord.

Lean R.

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The Hill: Senate Dems warn potential Missouri GOP recruit with opposition research dump.

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I don't think if you have something you'd announce you have it, they're bluffing.

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I think Lean R is still a fair rating.

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I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/


So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

...What

He's making a political prediction not based off the dynamics of the race, but on astrology.

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Pro-Hawley Super PAC up.

Here we go.

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Pro-Hawley Super PAC up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdng-RwTHyQ

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All this money and these ads prove is that the GOP is going to put a lot into defeating McCaskill, and won't let another Akin appear.

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https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/897495489888833536

Schmitt out.

Field is cleared if Hawley wants to run; ... I think the field's set; Hawley/McCaskill for 2018 Senate.

And another one has cleared the way for Hawley too. Speaker Todd Richardson has chosen to compete for the other statewide race in Missouri next year.

Jesus! This far out, they'll put half a billion into this race.

Gee, I'm so glad I don't watch TV any more.

They won't spend half a billion here, if you want to see half a Billion spent watch IL-Gov, it'll be f***ing horrifying, every single channel will have at least 2 ads an hour.

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I still like Petersen more.


idk who ill back in primary

I'm still going with Petersen, personally.

#TeamHawley

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Austin Petersen is pro catalan independence
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923948454824632321
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923949935854325761
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923950260019433472

Will this help or hurt him

Average American:  Where the hell is Catalonia and why should I care?

Negligible effect

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An endorsement from a molesting horse rider for Hawley? LOL.

For Courtland Sykes, not Hawley, did you read the article?

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https://www.news-leader.com/story/opinion/2018/10/03/josh-hawley-obamacare-isnt-needed-protect-preexisting-conditions/1508838002/


What in the name of God is Hawley calling for in this??