New Mexico and Nevada in the 60's

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Kennedy won both narrowly in 1960.  In 1964, they were both a few points more GOP than the nation as a whole.   Then in 1968, Nixon won both by convincing margins (8% points in NV and 12% points in NM). 

What happened?  What caused these states to trend Republican?   

[DS0816]

Kennedy won both narrowly in 1960.  In 1964, they were both a few points more GOP than the nation as a whole.   Then in 1968, Nixon won both by convincing margins (8% points in NV and 12% points in NM). 

What happened?  What caused these states to trend Republican?   

Republican presidential realigning election of 1968.

Now that the opposite is the case with both states…

Democratic presidential realigning election of 2008.

Nevada and New Mexico have long-established that they are presidential bellwether states with voting electorates which trend with the nation.

[RFayette]

Look at the county map in 1960.  Kennedy did quite well in the rural West (Northern MT, ID panhandle, SW Oregon, Inland CA, rural NV, southern WY), though he ended up carrying just NV and NM.  I think rural West support started to die down as the Southern transplants from the region began to bolt from the Democrats with their Southern counterparts; plus, the increasing animus against federal regulations and ownership of land probably hurt, as the Mountain West was pretty rural at the time.

[Nym90]

Kennedy did surprisingly well with Mormons. Michael Barone in "Our Country: The Shaping of America from Roosevelt to Reagan" hypothesized they may have felt kinship with a fellow religious outcast.

Miners' unions were probably a factor in Nevada; not sure how strong they were in New Mexico but they were quite strong throughout the West for decades. The loss of jobs in the mining industry throughout the 20th century helped swing the West toward the GOP.

[VPH]

During the 1960's, the exodus of more conservative Northern Whites to the Southwest kicked off.

[TDAS04]

Hispanics in New Mexico were enthusiastic about voting for a fellow Catholic in 1960.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These states love compassionate conservatives like Ford. And elected libertarian Gary Johnson. But Clinton put these states squarely in Dem fold with Latino appeal.