Make a Prediction: Hillary vs Bernie in every state

[ElectionsGuy]

Make a prediction right now, state by state, of a Hillary Clinton vs Bernie Sanders contest. Predict by what you think the race will look like by the times of the primaries, not necessarily what it is right now.

Hillary - 56%
Bernie - 43%

My thinking is that it is actually very similar to 2008, except blacks would go for Hillary this time. Its largely a rural urban split, with the urban white base overwhelmingly supporting Sanders and the rural countryside D's overwhelmingly going for Clinton. Most of the south goes for Clinton easily, but the rest of the country is evenly divided.

[Famous Mortimer]

Don't know how to make a map.

I suspect Hillary still wins the nomination.

Sanders wins NH, VT, OR, HI, WA, CO.

Hillary is basically the nominee after she wins IA, SC, and NV.

[mencken]

[The Other Castro]

[dudeabides]

Clinton 57%
Sanders 42%

[Kingpoleon]

Hillary Clinton - 49%
Bernie Sanders - 36%

[CatoMinor]

I seen Bernie's ceiling being the Obama coalition sans the African-American vote. Although I do think he'll make some inroads by the time voting starts.

[ScottieF]

Something like this.

[Progressive]

Red = Hillary
Blue = Bernie

[IceSpear]

Sanders wins NH, but his momentum is blunted by a crushing loss in South Carolina. He manages to win his home state of VT and the MN/CO caucuses on Super Tuesday, but narrowly loses the contested MA primary and is blown out of the water in every other contest (AL/AR/OK/TN/TX/VA). He drops out, no longer seeing a viable path to the nomination.

[Vega]

If Sanders wins Iowa and NH there is no way Hillary is going on to then win a huge victory. If you remember in 2008, when it looked like she'd lose NH, there were huge calls to drop out if she did indeed lose it.

[pho]

Blue - Clinton
Green - Bernie

I think Sanders fizzles out after losing 70-25 in South Carolina.

[Penelope]

Bernie wins NH in a close race, but loses NV and SC by wide margins. He picks up his home state of VT, along with CO and MN on Super Tuesday but loses everywhere else. Biden drops out. Bernie continues his campaign mostly for ideological reasons and to maintain awareness about issues he feels are important. He wins the occasional caucus, but finally suspends his campaign in early April and endorses Hillary.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Bernie
Hillary

The light green states are ones that I am hesitant to give Bernie a win in. Especially Oregon because it is so late in the season. This is barring a Biden candidacy; I don't think that Webb, Chafee, or O'Malley will do that well and will probably drop out before Super Tuesday.

I checked the megathread. Does anyone have a date for North Dakota's caucus? I know that they had it on Super Tuesday in 2012.

I see Bernie staying in until mid-April or so, assuming that nothing drastic happens to the race.

[Yelnoc]

Based on the primary timeline, I'd say something like this, with Hillary sweeping Bernie on March 15 in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, but his campaign hanging around until after the defeat in Wisconsin on April 5.

[Crumpets]

Given the current schedule and assuming Biden doesn't run, here's my map. Sanders pulls out a win in New Hampshire, but after sound losses in Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada, he only wins Vermont on Super Tuesday, and drops out.

With Biden, the map would be pretty much the same, but Hillary and Sanders are held to pluralities in Iowa and New Hampshire. I do now think Biden would draw mostly from Hillary, but I think his support is overrated and not concentrated in any particular geographic area, so I can't see him winning any states unless he gets a total game-changer, and he drops out after South Carolina.

And just for kicks, here's a map for if there was a nationwide primary held today.

[Mr. Morden]

I checked the megathread. Does anyone have a date for North Dakota's caucus? I know that they had it on Super Tuesday in 2012.

The Democratic caucus in ND at least is tentatively scheduled for June 7th, way at the end of the calendar:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

It's unclear if the Republican caucus will be the same day or not.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I checked the megathread. Does anyone have a date for North Dakota's caucus? I know that they had it on Super Tuesday in 2012.

The Democratic caucus in ND at least is tentatively scheduled for June 7th, way at the end of the calendar:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

It's unclear if the Republican caucus will be the same day or not.

Ah. Thanks for sharing. I don't think that he could win in that case.

Based on the primary timeline, I'd say something like this, with Hillary sweeping Bernie on March 15 in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, but his campaign hanging around until after the defeat in Wisconsin on April 5.

I was looking at March 15. Bernie needs to beware of the Ides of March. Unless he can scrape a win in Ohio, that will be a terrible day for him. I could see him pulling a win in Wisconsin and a couple of later caucuses, but losing all four primaries on one day is not good and would signal the inevitability of Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Alaska's an interesting one.  They do have a history of going with outsider candidates over the establishment candidates.  Here's who won the Democratic caucuses there during the open races of 1984-92:

1992: Brown
1988: Jackson
1984: Hart

Then of course 1996 was uncontested, 2000 was contested but Gore won every state, 2004 they finally went with the establishment frontrunner in Kerry, but so did 45 other states, and 2008 Obama won the caucuses with 75% of the vote (one of his highest victory margins in the country).  This year, the caucuses there are tentatively scheduled for March 26.  If Sanders has any chance of scoring any post-Super Tuesday victories (and he might not, since he'll be annihilated on Super Tuesday) this seems like one of his best bets.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Alaska's an interesting one.  They do have a history of going with outsider candidates over the establishment candidates.  Here's who won the Democratic caucuses there during the open races of 1984-92:

1992: Brown
1988: Jackson
1984: Hart

Then of course 1996 was uncontested, 2000 was contested but Gore won every state, 2004 they finally went with the establishment frontrunner in Kerry, but so did 45 other states, and 2008 Obama won the caucuses with 75% of the vote (one of his highest victory margins in the country).  This year, the caucuses there are tentatively scheduled for March 26.  If Sanders has any chance of scoring any post-Super Tuesday victories (and he might not, since he'll be annihilated on Super Tuesday) this seems like one of his best bets.

Atlas doesn't have popular vote details, but Wikipedia said that Dennis Kucinich got 27% to John Kerry's 48%. That's one of Kucinich's best states. Alaska was Nader's best state in 2000; Nader broke 10%. Alaska could be very fertile ground for Sanders. However, he would (as you noted) have to survive Super Tuesday and win at least VT, CO, and MN to remain remotely viable.

[nolesfan2011]

excluding the actual calendar process

Sanders does well/wins AK/OR/WA/HI and possibly NM, ID and CO in the west, with a decent showing in NV.

In the midwest, good showing in IA and WI, possible wins in MN and KS. Nothing in the south will be overly strong, in the NE he'll do well in MD, DE, RI, VT, ME, NH, MA.. basically everything except NY.

That's his peak map I think

[windjammer]

Bump

[mencken]

I will now accept my accolades (along with JBrase)

[ElectionsGuy]

Almost exactly a year ago, wow. 15 states wrong, also totally wrong on urban/rural split. Did not see that coming.

For the time though, I think its pretty OK.

[IceSpear]

Sanders wins NH, but his momentum is blunted by a crushing loss in South Carolina. He manages to win his home state of VT and the MN/CO caucuses on Super Tuesday, but narrowly loses the contested MA primary and is blown out of the water in every other contest (AL/AR/OK/TN/TX/VA). He drops out, no longer seeing a viable path to the nomination.

Not too bad if I didn't assume he drops out.