What would it take for the GOP to win over African Americans and Hispanics again

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'd like to hear your serious thoughts. Which 2016 candidate could do reasonably well with African American and Hispanic voters?

[Sumner 1868]

A very, very large landslide.

Reagan got 9% of the Black vote and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for a Republican to win the Black vote, no matter what.

In fairness, Reagan practically went out of his way to antagonize minorities much of the time. A more conciliatory attitude might lead to twenty percent in the best case scenario.

[Kingpoleon]

A very, very large landslide.

Reagan got 9% of the Black vote and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for a Republican to win the Black vote, no matter what.

In fairness, Reagan practically went out of his way to antagonize minorities much of the time. A more conciliatory attitude might lead to twenty percent in the best case scenario.

26%, in a huge 2014 Ohio-like landslide.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ending the drug war, promoting immigration reform, and upholding/not restricting voting rights would go a long way.

[RFayette]

Ending the drug war, promoting immigration reform, and upholding/not restricting voting rights would go a long way.

Maybe, but that wouldn't get the GOP even remotely close to a majority.  At best, this might shift blacks to 15-20% of the vote.

The reality is that the GOP would have to move significantly to the left on economics to make hard gains here.  If they came out in favor of expanding health care access, more housing subsidies/SNAP, etc., they could get far closer to winning the black vote.

[Crumpets]

I definitely think it's far-fetched to think the Republicans will get a majority of the vote of either of these groups in the near future. That being said, if they want to improve their performance, they need to completely change the starting premise of their policies. Many common Republican talking points seem to imply that the origin of the problems they face, or at the very least, the reasons these problems persist, comes from internal problems or resistance in the group. I don't know if that's intentional in order to get the "angry white vote" (the good-natured side of me hopes not), or just a lack of tact.

For example:
- "Pick yourself up from your bootstraps!" implies "You are not making enough of an effort to make your life better."
- "You don't need the government's help to succeed!" implies "You don't face any institutional challenges the government could try to fix or limit."
- "We need IDs to vote because we need to protect the integrity of the vote!" implies "Your grandma who doesn't have an up-to-date ID is violating the integrity of the vote."

There are also some pretty obvious ones, like not having major figures in your party call Mexicans rapists and drug dealers, or shutting down "Souls to the Polls" voting.

[Mehmentum]

African Americans: Acknowledgment that African Americans face systemic racial discrimination, proposing and enacting real solutions to deal with racial discrimination.  An end to a lot of rhetoric that the GOP uses to get its base worked up (exe. Welfare Queens).  Republicans wouldn't win the Black vote, but I could see the GOP getting a sizable minority (30%? 40%?) If they're sincere and sustain this strategy over multiple cycles.  Basically, the best case scenario for the GOP is that Blacks start voting like whites of their income level, it would still be majority Democratic, but not quite as much of a blowout.

This won't happen, but if it did, the South would start acting weirdly.

Hispanics: Waiting for Hispanics to become culturally integrated into the U.S (so, basically wait a generation or two).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

a) Acknowledge that racism, both incidental and institutional, still exists

b) Stop talking about "self-deportation"

c) Stop assuming that Latinos will suddenly be drawn to social conservative views, they might be Catholic, but they're more progressive on those issues than the community as a whole.


So... basically undo all the last 10 years of GOP messaging to minorities.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not sure about Hispanics, but for blacks:

Become the party that champions the rights of black Americans. As our dear and beloved Oldiesfreak reminds us, the Republicans were the party of explicit emancipation and civil rights from 1864 - 1936, until they got lazy on the subject after 1876(?) and until memories of the Civil War faded and the new crisis that was the Great Depression came, and the Democrats became a bipolar party of Civil Rights wing versus the Dixiecrat segregationist wing, united by the economic empowerment that was the New Deal until the 1960s.

During this time, Republicans managed to get about 30%-40% of the black vote (some sources show a statistical tie in party ID among blacks in the 1940 and 1944 elections) as ancestral loyalty to the GOP was still a factor and the segregationist half of the Democratic Party probably turned off a lot of black voters even to the pro-Civil Rights half. Republicans were kind of moderate heroes (as much as I hate how liberally that term is thrown around here) on the subject of civil rights for blacks, pushing the Civil Rights Acts of 1957 and 1960 that pertained to voting rights, but not comprehensive anti-discrimination legistlation that LBJ would later push.

Democrats leapfrogged the GOP in the 1930s and 1960s on civil rights, and Nixion exploited southern segregationist outrage at busing and desegregation during the late-1960s and 1970s to bring them into the GOP camp, and the GOP has repeatedly antagonized the black community since (passing voter ID laws with the stated intention of supressing the black vote, cutting government jobs and programs that help blacks advance economically in a country which still overtly and subtley denies them these advances outside of government, religiously enforcing tough-on-crime laws and harsh drug laws in minority areas, just straight up being racist pricks, etc.).

It would take an earth-shattering event for blacks to flip their voting patterns like they did after the Civil War, the Great Depression, and the Civil Rights Acts of the 1960s. Until such a thing happens, I don't see the black vote flipping for a long time with the current political narrative.

I think the GOP missed a great opportunity to become the party of civil rights again over the past few years. While virtually all Republican politicians and a vast number of Democrats have all pushed "tough on crime" bills that are disproportionately enforced against black and brown Americans to placate white suburban America, Republicans could've stolen the Democrats' thunder on police and prison reforms with the justification of "small government"(government will get off the backs of businesses and minorities simply walking down the street) and "fiscal conservatism" (locking up millions of people puts enormous direct and indirect monetary and social costs on society). While it may not have led to blacks and Hispanics suddenly giving 1920s-levels of support for Republicans, it could at best put a dent in the Democrats' vote share and at worst blunted Democratic attacks on the GOP that motivate minorities to turnout en masse to the polls.

Though I don't feel I could comment much on the Hispanic vote as I am not read enough on that, it's first and foremost clear that they do not have anywhere near the historic baggage that black people have in the United States, but they have suffered from xenophobic and discriminatory attitudes/policies present in society as a whole and their lower economic status that would make them more supportive of a government that is proactive in fighting discrimination (i.e. the Democrats), as opposed to the party that is indifferent or outright hostile in some cases (i.e. the Republicans).

[ElectionsGuy]

Black voters - Honestly nothing, the Republican Party is so damaged among black voters that they can only get about 20% at most, in a big landslide. They are overwhelmingly urban (outside the south), disproportionately poorer and less financially stable, meaning the vast majority of them support a welfare state, that's why a majority of blacks started voting Democratic for FDR and never looked back. That only solidified even more throughout the 60's when the Republicans started the process of becoming the southern white party (southern strategy). Of course there are other reasons, but those are the big ones.

Hispanic voters - Republicans can win a majority, but it would be difficult. First, they need pro-business, pro-immigrant economic policies that they used to have. But it would also take a moderate Republican and a big win. Reality is, Hispanics are more left wing than most of the country, so predictably about 60% of them support Democrats by default. For Republicans, getting 40% isn't hard, but getting 50% is. I suspect that older and more generationally entrenched Hispanics are more conservative. So I suspect that over time, they will vote less Democratic if Hispanic immigration slows. But for now, stop being the nativist party is all I can say.

I think the GOP missed a great opportunity to become the party of civil rights again over the past few years. While virtually all Republican politicians and a vast number of Democrats have all pushed "tough on crime" bills that are disproportionately enforced against black and brown Americans to placate white suburban America, Republicans could've stolen the Democrats' thunder on police and prison reforms with the justification of "small government"(government will get off the backs of businesses and minorities simply walking down the street) and "fiscal conservatism" (locking up millions of people puts enormous direct and indirect monetary and social costs on society). While it may not have led to blacks and Hispanics suddenly giving 1920s-levels of support for Republicans, it could at best put a dent in the Democrats' vote share and at worst blunted Democratic attacks on the GOP that motivate minorities to turnout en masse to the polls.

YES! There are some Republicans pushing to end mandatory minimums, like Mike Lee and Rand Paul, but its clear most of the party are apologists when it comes to police abuse and sentencing. Its really unfortunate, most don't even want to touch the subject.

[Jacobtm]

African Americans and Hispanics want free stuff

So the GOP could just deliver more free stuff than the Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as the GOP controls House min wage or a citzenship status willnot be passed. These are the two things these groups care about.

[Famous Mortimer]

Rand Paul would be in a good position to win slightly more of the Black vote if not for the fact that there's a clip of him saying the Civil Rights Act was wrong and discrimination should be legal.

[beaver2.0]

The Democrats nominate Jefferson Davis.

[DrScholl]

It's not as simple as running a black candidate, because it's about issues, not the color of the candidate. The problem is that Republicans are automatically shut down as a choice for a lot of minority voters because of issue positions. A change is platform could gain minority voters, but Republican base voters are not going to stand for a shift to the center or left.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

It requires a change in attitude and rhetoric that the party isn't willing to overcome. That posters in this thread (and the Simfan thread) think blacks vote because they're "welfare queens" or in love with the welfare state is indicative of a pernicious attitude that isn't going anywhere.

Republicans have to bite the bullet at some point and reform their minority outreach, or the gradual browning of America will overwhelm them.

[gespb19]

Note that Tim Scott's opponent was also black.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rand Paul could help do it. Honestly, if a black conservative libertarian republican, with the same charisma as Booker ran, he/she would easily win over AA's and hispanics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fyar4wJ3-Y

It's true

Senator Scott wishes to disagree.

He does pretty well. He is also not a conservative libertarian. Try again

But he's conservative AND Black. He received 10% of the Black vote in 2014. Your claim that Republicans can win the AA and Hispanic vote EASILY is beyond ridiculous. And that's coming from someone who supports Rand Paul.

Black folks in America tend to be (A) more churchgoing and (B) more entrepreneurial than the average American.  These are reasons for blacks to be interested in the GOP.  Black folks are, often, socially conservative in their outlook, even on abortion.  None of this, however, transmits into votes for the GOP. 

This is because blacks view Voting Rights, Affirmative Action, and many Safety Net issues as Group Survival issues, and blacks, more than any other group of folks in America, have opted to group solidarity as the best means of maximizing strength when outnumbered.  Blacks are not wrong in reacting this way to a point, as the GOP has repeatedly affirmed the correctness of the South's "Never" faction.  They use "dog whistle" politics to shore up their base, and they're not really hiding this, so how can they really expect blacks and Hispanics (but blacks, especially) to not view the conservative GOP as actively hostile.

George W. Bush was a truly color-blind President; it's one of his few Presidential virtues  He had/has friends of a races, and no one could really say that he was a racist with any credibility.  But even W could not control the many elements of his party who were pointedly anti-black and did little to hide it.  And this was BEFORE the assault on voting rights and ballot access.  W was able to command a decent percentage of the Hispanic vote in Texas and Florida, however, mainly because the Cuban vote in Florida was anti-Castro Republican and W had worked hard in Texas to cultivate the Hispanic vote, much of which had roots in Texas for decades and decades. 

[Figueira]

Adopt the Democratic platform, and make sure no one says anything racist.

[Likely Voter]

...and make sure no one says anything racist.

This is probably more important than anything. And unfortunately it is really out of the party and candidates control, especially with African Americans. They see how conservative talk radio and Fox News as parts of the GOP. So for the GOP to really make inroads with blacks one place to start would be to convince Fox to stop to reflexively take the white cop's side every time some unarmed black kid gets shot by the police. Because while only 1% of Fox's audience is black (really, just 1%), you can be sure that they hear about it and see the clips, etc. via social media and other outlets.


As for the 2016 election the GOP cannot win without doing better with non-whites. It is simple math, they cannot squeeze more out of white voters. To do better than Romney, they need to focus on Hispanics and Asians. A huge start would be to nominate someone who supports a path to citizenship and doesn't vow to end Obama's executive orders on deportations.

Good luck with that.

[rbt48]

For African Americans, it is simply not going to happen anytime soon.  For Hispanics, it is possible given the right campaign issues/positions, the right candidate, and the right opponent.

Really, the best chance for any Republican to win over these groups would be in a jungle primary election where two Republicans emerge on top for the general election.  :-)

[ag]

I'd like to hear your serious thoughts. Which 2016 candidate could do reasonably well with African American and Hispanic voters?

Well, I guess, you could start by murdering Donald Trump right at the Republican Convention.

[Likely Voter]

As for the 2016 election the GOP cannot win without doing better with non-whites. It is simple math, they cannot squeeze more out of white voters. To do better than Romney, they need to focus on Hispanics and Asians. A huge start would be to nominate someone who supports a path to citizenship and doesn't vow to end Obama's executive orders on deportations.

I guess I need to add 'not calling to end birthright citizenship' to the list or per-requisites to winning more non-whites. Thought that would go without saying, but apparently not.

[Nyvin]

There is an extremely sharp division in the country that transcends politics.   It's impossible for the Republicans to obtain a large chunk of the African American (and maybe hispanic?) vote without losing a good chunk of their core voters as well.   

If they tried too hard to cater to African Americans a good chunk of southern social conservatives, and conservatives across the country, would start running third party candidates and would stop voting Republican,  similar to the three way races of 1980 and 1968.   

I literally don't think there is any possible way for them to win African Americans and keep their core voters....it just doesn't work.

[Frodo]

What would it take for the GOP to win over African Americans and Hispanics again?

A lot more effort than they think it's worth.