Fox national poll: Clinton leads Fiorina & Trump; loses to Bush & Rubio
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  Fox national poll: Clinton leads Fiorina & Trump; loses to Bush & Rubio
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Author Topic: Fox national poll: Clinton leads Fiorina & Trump; loses to Bush & Rubio  (Read 4029 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 16, 2015, 09:25:24 AM »

Fox national poll:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/14/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-on-clinton/

2-way

Clinton 47%
Fiorina 40%

Clinton 47%
Trump 42%

Rubio 46%
Clinton 44%

Bush 44%
Clinton 42%

3-way

Clinton 42%
Trump 25%
Fiorina 24%

Clinton 42%
Rubio 30%
Trump 22%

Clinton 40%
Bush 29%
Trump 23%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2015, 09:35:16 AM »

And Fox says Clinton loses by 2 to Jeb, but Trump is leading in primary polls.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2015, 09:42:58 AM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2015, 09:52:19 AM »

Not liking those numbers vs Bush and Rubio.  Sad 
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2015, 09:53:51 AM »

3-way

Clinton 42%
Trump 25%
Fiorina 24%

in his dreams.

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ditto.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2015, 09:54:16 AM »

And Fox says Clinton loses by 2 to Jeb, but Trump is leading in primary polls.
So?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2015, 10:00:26 AM »

Ugh, why didn't they poll Sanders?
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madelka
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2015, 10:22:25 AM »

If Rubio or Bush wins the nomination, this will be a race to watch. They could at least carry Florida and Iowa, which would be a step in the right direction for the GOP.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2015, 10:26:53 AM »


Fox News ignores candidates that aren't establishment favorites or front runners.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2015, 11:20:10 AM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%


I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2015, 11:28:40 AM »

Lol @ a republican+Trump getting more than 50% of the vote.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2015, 12:52:52 PM »

24M people watched the GOP debate and I think that is benefiting all of them. This 'circus' fueled by Trump may be working to the Pubs benefit.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2015, 12:55:16 PM »

Trump will never win a natl campaign against Clinton.  The GOP will come close, though.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2015, 01:05:55 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2015, 01:10:54 PM by EliteLX »

Trump will never win a natl campaign against Clinton.  The GOP will come close, though.

Trump will never, but a solid 'pub ticket on the other hand could beat Clinton. Not just come close mate.

Things will be very tight. But yes, great numbers for Rubio & Bush here.
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RFayette
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2015, 01:13:36 PM »

24M people watched the GOP debate and I think that is benefiting all of them. This 'circus' fueled by Trump may be working to the Pubs benefit.

True.  Trump makes all the other candidates appear reasonable......had he not been in the debate, the other candidates may have been hammered more on other issues like climate change, abortion, or income inequality, where a bad gaffe could have ensued.

Regardless, this is a FOX poll, so take it with a grain of salt.  I would probably say Clinton is a few points ahead of Bush and Rubio right now, but that's just my speculation.  A Trump 3rd party bid would wreck the GOP of course, as this poll clearly shows.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2015, 08:41:10 PM »

The three-way polls suggest a US version of UK 1983; a divisive female winning a landslide (rather than a more modest victory) due to a split opposition.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2015, 07:58:32 AM »

The Bush numbers are meaniless, its well within margin of error. And enough for Hilary to slip by with 272 electors.
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2015, 03:23:38 PM »


They only polled those who might be on the ballot in a general election, and Sanders is not running third-party.
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Knives
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« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2015, 06:50:30 PM »

People panicking about Clinton's numbers need to remember the girl has barely left Iowa and NH and even then she's been pretty low scale campaigning compared to others, for her this is a long game, shes got the nomination she just needs to wait for the perfect time to launch her full campaign.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2015, 06:52:59 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2015, 07:31:24 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

Only leading Trump by 5?  I know polls 16 months before the election are crap anyways, but...
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2015, 10:29:29 PM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%


I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.

...right after Jim Gilmore comes out as gay, endorses Obamacare, and eventually wins four consecutive terms in the Oval Office.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2015, 12:04:01 AM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%


I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.

Democrats won 55% of the Millennial vote in 2010 and 54% in 2014, with approximately 20% turnout during both midterms.

The notion that Republicans would win over 50% of their vote in a Presidential year, especially in light of the well-documented fact that 18-24 year olds are easily the most liberal segment of the population, is laughable. Get real.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2015, 07:07:58 AM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%


I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.

Democrats won 55% of the Millennial vote in 2010 and 54% in 2014, with approximately 20% turnout during both midterms.

The notion that Republicans would win over 50% of their vote in a Presidential year, especially in light of the well-documented fact that 18-24 year olds are easily the most liberal segment of the population, is laughable. Get real.

No, the millenial generation stretches from 1980 to 1999 (roughly).  There are plenty of ups-and-downs within it, but the super liberal group only stretches from 1988 births (came of age in 2006 when Bush got unpopular) to 1991 births (the end of the 'Hope and Change' era).  The 1992-1998 crowd is much more Conservative, evidenced by Romney winning the 18-20 vote in 2012 (up to 24 by 2016).  Turnout will still be on the low side, and it may just be a plurality, but I am predicting that the GOP will win the 18-24 vote, say 49-47, but get pummeled- something like 70-25- in the 25-29 vote in 2016.
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RFayette
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2015, 11:31:30 PM »

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%


I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.

Democrats won 55% of the Millennial vote in 2010 and 54% in 2014, with approximately 20% turnout during both midterms.

The notion that Republicans would win over 50% of their vote in a Presidential year, especially in light of the well-documented fact that 18-24 year olds are easily the most liberal segment of the population, is laughable. Get real.

No, the millenial generation stretches from 1980 to 1999 (roughly).  There are plenty of ups-and-downs within it, but the super liberal group only stretches from 1988 births (came of age in 2006 when Bush got unpopular) to 1991 births (the end of the 'Hope and Change' era).  The 1992-1998 crowd is much more Conservative, evidenced by Romney winning the 18-20 vote in 2012 (up to 24 by 2016).  Turnout will still be on the low side, and it may just be a plurality, but I am predicting that the GOP will win the 18-24 vote, say 49-47, but get pummeled- something like 70-25- in the 25-29 vote in 2016.

The 18-20 vote being carried by Romney was based on small sample sizes.  I do think millenials are a tad more conservative in my generation, but it's the ones in middle school now who likely will be more on the conservative side.
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