Fox national poll: Clinton leads Fiorina & Trump; loses to Bush & Rubio

[RFayette]

24M people watched the GOP debate and I think that is benefiting all of them. This 'circus' fueled by Trump may be working to the Pubs benefit.

True.  Trump makes all the other candidates appear reasonable......had he not been in the debate, the other candidates may have been hammered more on other issues like climate change, abortion, or income inequality, where a bad gaffe could have ensued.

Regardless, this is a FOX poll, so take it with a grain of salt.  I would probably say Clinton is a few points ahead of Bush and Rubio right now, but that's just my speculation.  A Trump 3rd party bid would wreck the GOP of course, as this poll clearly shows.

[RFayette]

Gender gap is enormous, but age gap is minimal.  In Bush vs. Clinton, Bush wins men by 15, Clinton wins women by 9.  But very little variation in support among different age groups.

Other fun #s are in the crosstabs for the Clinton-Fiorina-Trump 3-way:

whites:
Clinton 32%
Fiorina 29%
Trump 29%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Fiorina 6%
Trump 6%

I've been saying for a while- the youth vote will be much more competitive in 2016, and the GOP will win the 18-24 vote outright.

Democrats won 55% of the Millennial vote in 2010 and 54% in 2014, with approximately 20% turnout during both midterms.

The notion that Republicans would win over 50% of their vote in a Presidential year, especially in light of the well-documented fact that 18-24 year olds are easily the most liberal segment of the population, is laughable. Get real.

No, the millenial generation stretches from 1980 to 1999 (roughly).  There are plenty of ups-and-downs within it, but the super liberal group only stretches from 1988 births (came of age in 2006 when Bush got unpopular) to 1991 births (the end of the 'Hope and Change' era).  The 1992-1998 crowd is much more Conservative, evidenced by Romney winning the 18-20 vote in 2012 (up to 24 by 2016).  Turnout will still be on the low side, and it may just be a plurality, but I am predicting that the GOP will win the 18-24 vote, say 49-47, but get pummeled- something like 70-25- in the 25-29 vote in 2016.

The 18-20 vote being carried by Romney was based on small sample sizes.  I do think millenials are a tad more conservative in my generation, but it's the ones in middle school now who likely will be more on the conservative side.