Harkin' On For America - A Tom Harkin 2004 TL

[Bigby]

OOC Note: Hey guys. Although I was doing another TL, computer troubles and college work got the best of me and forced me to be away for a while. While this TL won't be nearly as detailed as my last one, I will do my best to maintain a balance between brevity and detail in this one. Expect an update once to twice, maybe three times, a week. If for some reason I feel that I cannot update that often, whether it is relate to school work, personal reasons, or otherwise, I will try and alert everyone in advance.

Introduction

Cumming, Iowa - July 4th, 2003

While at home for Independence Day, Tom Harkin officially announced that he is running for President. The Iowa Senator stated that it was time for him to move on from the Senate, believing that "America needs him more as President than as a Senator." He railed against President Bush on several issues, most notably the Bush tax cuts, Bush's handling of the Iraq War, and his proposition of privatizing of Social Security. Harkin has themed his campaign on populism and economic liberalism, promising better treatment towards the middle and lower classes. This announcement comes a mere week and a half after the announcement of Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean.



Senator Tom Harkin at his first campaign rally in his native town of Cumming.

July 11th, 2003

New York City - The O'Reilly Factor

"Good evening America, and I am Bill O'Reilly. A full week has passed since Iowa Senator Tom Harkin threw his hat into the Presidential ring. I would like to show you some polls that were released today and break them down..."

Iowa Democratic Poll - Gallup

Tom Harkin: 58%
Howard Dean: 29%
Dick Gephardt: 9%
Joe Lieberman: 2.5%
Others: 1.5%

New Hampshire Democratic Poll - Gallup

Howard Dean: 41.2%
John Kerry: 31.8%
Tom Harkin: 14.5%
Joe Lieberman: 11.9%
Others: 0.6%

Iowa Democratic Poll - Public Policy Polling

Tom Harkin: 42.5% - TIED
Howard Dean: 42.5% - TIED
Dick Gephardt: 14.5%
Others: 0.5%

New Hampshire Democratic Poll - Public Policy Polling

Howard Dean: 49%
John Kerry: 20%
Joe Lieberman: 18.5%
Tom Harkin: 7%
Al Sharpton: 3%
Others: 2.5%

"Okay, for starters, PPP reveals that they are just a bunch of establishment-obeying pinheads. Granted, Senator Harkin IS from Iowa and has a homestate advantage, hence his obvious lead in the Gallup poll. And of course Dean and Kerry are performing best in New Hampshire; they're New England Democrats. However, the PPP polls report a vastly different setup. How can Dean be tied with Harkin, who is a popular Senator at home with a starting momentum wave? That's crazy talk! Oh, and somehow Harkin is doing worse than Lieberman in PPP's New Hampshire poll! Sure, Lieberman is a New England Democrat too, but he's a war hawk! The Democrats have gone too far left to ever support him! Oh, and don't even get me started on how Al Sharpton mustered enough votes to be of prominence in a white state like New Hampshire! PPP is a Democrat-aligned pollster and they are bootlicking the establishment candidate Dean. They're scared of Harkin's populist rhetoric, so they are skewing the polls to make the Democratic voters bow down to the establishment.

July 12th, 2003 - Montpelier, Vermont

Presidential Candidate Howard Dean Blasts O'Reilly Allegations, Defends Liberal Message

Howard Dean, in an official statement to the press, blasted commentator Bill O'Reilly for his critique of Public Policy Polling. He also criticized the notion that the Democratic establishment was rigging the field to his advantage.

"Look, Mr. O'Reilly, PPP merely found different results than Gallup. This may shock you, but not all pollsters get the same results. I am not, in any way, shape, or form, using my status as Chairman to rig the polls to sway voters. These results are entirely genuine, and I accept that I performed weaker in the Gallup polls. I will not stoop to your level of partisan ignorance. I will win this election because I support liberal, working alternatives to the mess that the Bush administration has made. My record as Governor of Vermont proves that, and so will the voters in the primaries! O'Reilly is scared that I'll crush Bush, and so he's indirectly supporting Harkin as a result! I am here to stay, Bill O'Reilly, and your tricks won't work on me!"



Dean lets his disapproval of O'Reilly's claim be known.

Next Time: Harkin's Response, and Another Emerging Challenger

[Bigby]

OOC Note: Since I have some extra free time and I want to roll this TL along, I'll go ahead and update early.

New National Democratic Polls, July 18th, 2003:

National Poll - Gallup

Tom Harkin: 38%
Howard Dean: 36%
John Kerry: 15%
Dick Gephardt: 6%
Others: 5%

National Poll - PPP

Howard Dean: 44%
Tom Harkin: 36.8%
Dick Gephardt: 8.6%
John Kerry: 5.2%
Joe Lieberman: 3.6%
Others: 1.8%

National Poll - YouGov

Tom Harkin: 35.1%
Howard Dean: 34.9%
John Kerry: 9.2%
Joe Lieberman: 6.8%
Dick Gephardt: 5%
Bob Graham: 4.5%
Others: 4.5%

Presidential Candidate Tom Harkin Responds to Dean's Supposed Liberalism, Claims Dean Is Mistaken.

Des Moines, Iowa - July 21st, 2003

During a stop in his home state's capital, Senator Tom Harkin took the time to critique Howard Dean's supposed liberalism during a speech nine days ago. Harkin dismissed the idea that Dean was a liberal, and considered his insistence that he was a liberal Governor an outright lie. Harkin also insisted that he was more genuinely liberal than his Vermont counterpart.

"Unlike Governor Dean, I won't lie to you about my political beliefs. Unlike Mr. Dean, I actually understand, practice, and preach liberal economics. Howard Dean will tell you that he follows 'fiscal constraint,' but what he really means is that he follows Republican economics. Before the Reagan Revolution in the 80's, there was this group of Republicans called the Rockefeller Republicans, those who were more moderate. Often, they were socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Governor Dean as a Rockefeller Republican; he definitenly isn't a Democrat. That's why I should be the Democratic Party nominee and not him!"

Presidential Candidate Al Sharpton Holds Surprise Rally, Empassions Local Black Voters.

July 23rd, 2003 - Charleston, South Carolina

In an unscripted and non-publicized event, Reverend Al Sharpton gave a rousing speech, which included a tirade against both Governor Howard Dean and journalist Bill O'Reilly. He denounced both for what he considers "rigging the election." While he agrees with O'Reilly that Governor Dean may be collaborating with PPP and other Democratic-aligned organizations to ensure the establishment wins, he then turned his anger towards O'Reilly. Sharpton admonished O'Reilly for his remarks that New Hampshire is "too white" for Sharpton to win support at all. Combined with response to his stance on issues, the response was positive overall, but black attendants were the most positive towards Sharpton. Political analysts believe that Sharpton is emulating Harkin's strategy of energizing his base to propel to the top tier of candidates. At the same time, analysts are also debating whether or not if Sharpton has potential for non-Democratic support like the other candidates and if he can gain enough support from nonwhites to win the nomination.



Al Sharpton attacks against the left and right. Will it pay off?

Next Update: A Divided Party

[Kingpoleon]

Liking this so far. Go on, Harkin!

I'm a little surprised at how poorly Gephardt's doing, but perhaps it's for a strong comeback later on.

[Bigby]

Liking this so far. Go on, Harkin!

I'm a little surprised at how poorly Gephardt's doing, but perhaps it's for a strong comeback later on.

Hey, Harkin suddenly announcing will have effects. More is to come.

[Bigby]

A Party Divided: Democratic Officeholders Split On Candidates!

Headline of Chicago Tribune, August 1st, 2003.

Democrats are currently undecided on who to endorse in the Democratic Presidential primary election. While Governor Howard Dean was and still is the establishment favorite, Senator Tom Harkin's entry has sparked a momentum that is still going strong. Harkin's campaign has also encouraged more minor moderates and establishment members to explore alternatives to Dean. Senator John Edwards, who originally opted to explore running for President, has now declined to do so; he also announced his endorsement for Senator Harkin. Both Senators from Wisconsin, Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl, followed suit and endorsed Harkin as well. The race is increasingly becoming establishment versus liberal, as the establishment has begun a reaction against Harkin. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and Senator Hillary Clinton have "pledged their support for Howard Dean and Howard Dean only" in a recent press conference together.



Howard Dean is pleased to have the establishment's back.

Breaking News: Democratic Field Thins.

August 4th, 2003.

Two Democratic candidates have announced their departure from the Presidential primaries. Senator Bob Graham, who had underwent open heart surgery in January, has announced that he will withdraw from the race. According to him, health issues and an overall lack of energy have contributed to his desire to end his campaign. He refused to endorse any candidate as of yet. Former Senator Moseley Braun has also ended her campaign, but unlike Graham, she has officially endorsed another candidate. Her candidate of choice is Reverend Al Shaprton.

Excerpt from Former Senator Braun: "Sharpton is right; the establishment is scared of him. African-Americans are still being mistreated, even within the Democratic Party. I will endorse Sharpton so we can show as African-Americans that we will not be silenced."

National Democratic Primary Polls, August 14th, 2003.

Collective Pollster's Note: We are sorry for the delay. Polls were delayed and redone to reflect the withdrawals of Braun and Graham.

National Poll - PPP

Howard Dean: 35%
Tom Harkin: 29%
Dick Gephardt: 11%
Al Sharpton: 10%
Joe Lieberman: 8%
John Kerry: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%

National Poll - Gallup

Tom Harkin: 32%
Howard Dean: 26%
Al Sharpton: 15%
Dick Gephardt: 11%
Joe Lieberman: 7%
John Kerry: 5%
Dennis Kucinich: 4%

Iowa Poll - Des Moines Register

Tom Harkin: 60%
Howard Dean: 20%
Dick Gephardt: 15%
John Kerry: 7%
Al Sharpton: 3%
Kucinich: 2.5%
Joe Lieberman: 2.5%

New Hampshire Poll - Fox News

Howard Dean: 45%
Tom Harkin: 20%
John Kerry: 15%
Joe Lieberman: 15%
Others: 5%

South Carolina Poll - CNN

Al Sharpton: 48%
Tom Harkin: 31%
Howard Dean: 18%
Others: 3%

Atlanta, Georgia. Special CNN Report with Wolf Blitzer.

"In a startling turn of events, potentially tied with Sharpton's recent speech and endorsement from Former Senator Braun, Reverend Al Sharpton has won our latest South Carolina poll for the Democratic nomination. This is concurrent with his strong performance in the national-level polls. Since South Carolina is usually an early primary state, this is good news for Sharpton. However, he is still performing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are predominantly white states. It is unknown if the reverend can muster enough momentum to get voters on his side in those equally crucial states. Ultimately, this is bad news for Former Governor Howard Dean. Dean still leads in New Hampshire and in PPP's national poll, but Harkin is in first place in Iowa and second in South Carolina. Dean still has a chance, but Harkin and Sharpton are both making his campaign increasingly difficult.

Up Next: Debate Time, A General's Endorsement

(OOC Note: Does anyone have a debate schedule of the major primary debates from OTL? If not, I will make up the major debates beyond May.)

[/]

Great TL! #harkin04

[NHI]

Excellent timeline!!!

[Bigby]

CNN National Pre-Debate Poll, August 29th, 2003

Tom Harkin: 28%
Howard Dean: 26%
Al Sharpton: 18%
Dick Gephardt: 10%
John Kerry: 9%
Joe Lieberman: 8%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%

First Post-Realignment Democratic Debate, Hosted by CNN's Wolf Blitzer

Atlanta, Georgia - September 5th, 2003.

Debate time! Although the first Democratic debate was held in May at the University of South Carolina, this debate is the first to include Senator Tom Harkin. It is also the first to exclude Senator Bob Graham and Former Senator Carol Braun due to their withdrawals. This debate will cover a broad range of topics, such as the Iraq War, the economy, the Bush tax cuts, candidate credibility, and ideological purity. Wolf Blitzer will act as moderator for the debate, with John King assisting him. The debate will take place in Atlanta, Georgia, the headquarters of CNN.

Debate Synopsis by Issue

Iraq War: There was some variation in answer to the question of Iraq, but there was little variation in the opinion of Bush's handling of Iraq. Lieberman was rather positive of Bush's handling of Iraq, while Gephardt appeared to seem mixed and the others negative. Kucinich and Sharpton demanded immediate withdrawal; Kucinich called the war a mistake from the start and Sharpton considered the war a distraction from racial issues. Harkin and Kerry defended their vote for the Iraq War, as did Gephardt. While Kerry and Gephardt failed to deliver a specific rationale, Harkin did so. The Iowan Senator claimed that the Iraq War must be won and Saddam Hussein must be captured, but the United States should love thereafter. Dean gave a general yet scathing critique to President Bush over the war, but did not offer specifics when questioned by the moderators.

The economy: All candidates criticized Bush for allowing the recession of the early 2000's to continue. Kerry, Dean, and Harkin all mentioned that the unemployment rate peaked to 6.3% in June, though only Harkin and Kucinich felt it necessary to mention that the number would be even higher if unemployment included all Americans in the labor force participation rate that were out of a job. Harkin and Dean got into a heated discussion about whether or not Dean was truly an economic liberal during his tenure in Vermont, barely allowing the more minor candidates time to discuss their economic platforms.

The Bush Tax Cuts: All candidates but Lieberman opposed the Bush tax cuts as is. Sharpton blasted the President; according to him, President Bush was "keeping the black man down by giving his corporate cronies the best piece at the pie instead." Kucinich and Dean not only opposed continuing the tax cats for the wealthy, but opposed any new tax cuts at all. Harkin, Kerry, and Gephardt supported ending the Bush tax cuts while also cutting taxes for the lower and middle classes, though Harkin offered somewhat more modest tax cuts than Kerry or Gephardt. Lieberman claimed that he wants to lower tax rates for all Americans across the board, something with Kucinich criticized as "malarky a Republican would spout."

Credibility and Ideology: The biggest fights here were against Harkin and Dean and Sharpton and Blitzer. Harkin once again trounced on Dean for being a "Rockefeller Republican" as he called the Governor back in August. Kucinich and to a lesser extent Kerry sided with Harkin while Lieberman sided with Dean. Harkin explained why he considered Dean fiscally conservative; he cited the Governor's attitude of fiscal restraint as reason enough that Dean's supposed liberalism is a farce. Meanwhile, Lieberman argued that Harkin was playing the field as too ideological and that "this attempt to only adhere to liberal purism will only alienate moderates and independents, allowing Bush a second term." Blitzer asked Sharpton a question from a random viewer, which was "Are you running for all Americans, or only black Americans?" Sharpton took the question as personal and accused Blitzer of "trying to make the white man scared of a powerful black man." Blitzer retaliated, calling Sharpton out for insinuating such a notion and that the question was from a caller, not him. Sharpton eventually backed down after being booed by the audience.



"Look, Reverend, the question came from a caller, not me. You accepted the question beforehand. Now, will you refrain from acting unprofessionally, or are you going to continue to attack me for doing my job? It is merely a question that begs to be answered. If you cannot provide an answer to a simple question without resorting to wrongly calling me racist, then you do not deserve to be at this debate."

(This debate update got much lengthier than I anticipated. I will split it into two.)

[Bigby]

Post-Debate Polls, September 8th, 2003.

TIME Magazine Excerpt: Senator Tom Harkin has received a rather substantial boost from the debate. Liberals and moderates are the most to thanks for his surge. Meanwhile, Former Governor Howard Dean, still in second place in the national polls, fell due to voter perception that he is flip-flopping to appear more liberal than he actually is. Senator Joe Lieberman has seen a surge as well. Oddly enough, Democrats of all political affiliations saw him as more favorable despite an initially poor performance due to his defense of Dean against Harkin. Congressman Dick Gephardt has remained static, neither improving or worsening in the polls. The biggest loser was Reverand Al Sharpton. Viewers saw him as "too racially motivated" and considered his reaction against Wolf Blitzer "akin to a childish tamper tantrum." The momentum he has seen has shrunk dramatically as a result. In summary, Harkin and Lieberman are considered to be the for-sure winners overall while the overall losers of the debate are Dean and Sharpton.

National Poll - CNN

Tom Harkin: 43%
Howard Dean: 20%
Joe Lieberman: 14%
Dick Gephardt: 10%
John Kerry: 6%
Al Sharpton: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%

Iowa Poll - CNN

Tom Harkin: 61%
Howard Dean: 20%
Joe Lieberman: 12%
Dick Gephardt: 4.5%
John Kerry: 2%
Dennis Kucinich: .5%

New Hampshire Poll - CNN

Howard Dean: 39%
Tom Harkin: 21%
Joe Lieberman: 20%
John Kerry: 10%
Dick Gephardt: 5%
Dennis Kucinich: 2%
Wolf Blitzer: 3% (Write-In)

Nevada Poll - CNN

Joe Lieberman: 30%
Howard Dean: 29%
Tom Harkin: 25%
Dick Gephardt: 14%
John Kerry: 2%

South Carolina Poll - CNN

Tom Harkin: 20% - TIED
Howard Dean: 20% - TIED
Al Sharpton: 20% - TIED
Joe Lieberman: 16%
Dick Gephardt: 13%
John Kerry: 8%
Dennis Kucinich: 1.6%
Wolf Blitzer: 1.4% (Write-in)

"Sharpton's overt focus on race and anger directed at Wolf Blitzer neutralized his momentum right as it began. Not only did voters perceive Sharpton as merely about race, but they sneered at what seemed to be personal animosity towards Blitzer as a person and a moderator." - Larry Sabato on Heartland with John Kasich.

(OOC Note: Since I just realized how long this post is, I will post the 2nd planned part of the update next time. From now on, debates will be posts on their own. Debate polls and columnist reactions will be posted afterwards on a separate post. I apologize for the inconvenience.)

[Bigby]

A General's Endorsement: Wesley Clark Endorses Tom Harkin, Praises Iraq War Policy.


New York City, New York - September 11th, 2003.

Retired Army General Wesley Clark has officially endorsed Senator Tom Harkin for President during a trip to New York City with the Senator. The endorsement was not revealed to the public, but in a private meeting between the two. Clark and Harkin exchanged ideas on foreign policy, and Clark found himself in agreement with Harkin. Clark referenced the September 5th debate in Atlanta, which he used to laud Harkin for his answer on the Iraq War. According to Clark, "Harkin gave the most objective, straightforward general strategy in regards to Iraq. When I talked with him personally, he had the specifics down pat too." After giving the Senator his endorsement, Clark confirmed to the press that he has indeed endorsed Harkin. Clark also stated that he had intended to run for President himself, but opted to simply endorse Harkin instead.



Senator Harkin meeting with General Clark and Congressman Jim Oberstar (D - MN) for a 9/11 Remembrance Rally. Clark endorsed Harkin privately afterwards.

Senator Joe Lieberman Interviewed by Sean Hannity Regarding Poll Surge.

New York City, New York - September 16th, 2003.

Fox News Anchor Sean Hannity of Hannity and Colmes conducted a live interview with Senator Joe Lieberman regarding his Presidential campaign. The main topic of the interview was the Senator's recent surge in the polls after the debate. Lieberman maintained that his poll numbers were based on two factors: his moderate stances and his ability to respond to criticism. Both factors, according to him, were made most obvious by the debate. "It's a shame, Sean..." Lieberman remarked at one point. "... I'm a Democrat, and I've made that consistently clear during my tenure as a Senator and when I campaigned with Gore in 2000. However, it seems that many of the candidates running against me for President are forgetting that we're trying to win a general election. Yes, of course we stick to our values, but we cannot become so ideologically zealous that we alienate most of America. We are supposed to represent all Americans, not just some of them. If we fall into the trap of ideological purity, then we're capitulating to Bush and the Republicans."



Some of the other Presidential candidates gave their own reactions to the speech throughout the week. Congressman Kucinich considered Lieberman's message proof that "he is just another phony and not qualified to run as a Democrat." Senator Harkin did not react as strongly, but he did state that "while Lieberman is correct in that we should not alienate moderates and conservatives, we need to keep a consistent, uniform message. Sliding too far to the right will also disadvantage the Democrats."  Congressman Gephardt and Senator Kerry did not desire to comment, and Reverend Sharpton was unable to be contacted. Former Governor Dean was surprisingly supportive of Lieberman's points despite his attempt to run consistently left-wing in the primaries. In an ironic twist, especially in regards to Lieberman and Dean's opposing methods in the debate, Dean endorsed the notion that the Democrats cannot and should not run too far to the left.

Intraparty Revival? Reverend Al Sharpton Receives Congressional Endorsement.

After his campaign entered free-fall mode, Al Sharpton has received a glimmer of hope. Congresswoman Sheila Jackson-Lee of Texas has not only endorsed Sharpton, but she has been appointed by Sharpton as his campaign's new chairwoman. Despite her controversial statements, Jackson-Lee's endorsement is seen as a potential sign of rebound for Sharpton. This is his first governmental endorsement so far. However, it is yet to be seen if any other current officeholders will follow suit. While Former Senator Carol Braun endorsed Sharpton and has not retracted her endorsement, she had left office in 1999. Will this endorsement give Sharpton another boost, or has he peaked? It remains to be seen.

Up Next: Disaster in Iraq, Debate Time (Again)

[Bigby]

(OOC Note: Since I am unsure how busy I will be this weekend, I will go ahead and post some update stuff. The debate will be pushed to next time, as per my new rule regarding debate posts.)

Disaster In Iraq! Saddam Hussein Escapes Capture!

Tikrit, Iraq, October 1st, 2003.

CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC have simultaneously confirmed that despite the US Army's best efforts, Saddam Hussein was spotted in the city of Tikrit during the NATO advance onto the city. NATO forces succeeded in ousting the remnants of Iraqi governmental forces, but were unable to capture the former dictator. Hussein took advantage of the resulting chaos in the city and fled, leaving most of his troops behind to hamper American and NATO chances of finding him. Despite the siege of Tikrit being a success, the victory is considered a Pyrrhic one as a result of Hussein's successful escape.

Bad Luck In Tikrit: Hussein Breaks Free!



Front Cover of TIME Magazine, October 7th, 2003.

TIME Excerpt:

"Overall, the American public has reacted negatively to the failure of US and NATO troops to capture Saddam Hussein in Iraq. While the Bush administration maintains that 'this is only a minor setback,' many Democrats are using this as proof that President Bush is failing to fulfill total victory in Iraq. Senator Hillary Clinton has called on the President to reorganize leadership to prevent such a mistake from reoccurring. Presidential Candidate Howard Dean seconded that notion. Meanwhile, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who is also running for President, used Hussein's evasion as proof that Iraq 'was not meant to be invaded.' Despite this mostly negative perception, there have been some voices who consider the event proof that the war effort must be strengthened. Recruiting has actually increased this week by a slight margin. Lawyer Tom Cotton, one such new recruit, cited the need to capture Saddam Hussein as his primary motivation for joining the military. Presidential Candidate Joe Lieberman, in a break with fellow Democrats, defended Bush, claiming that 'giving up over one mistake is folly. We have toppled Hussein's regime, and soon the man himself will follow.'"

President Bush Approval Ratings Poll, October 8th-10th, 2003.

This approval ratings poll coincides with recent events in Iraq. This is the first poll that shows the President with underwater approval ratings.

Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 50%
No Opinion: 3%

Up Next: The Second Debate

[AussieLaborite]

Nice Tl