Sanders vs. O'Malley vs. Chafee vs. Webb

[7,052,770]

Disclaimer: I don't think this is going to happen, but I do think it's worth a discussion.

Let's say Biden doesn't run, and this email thing turns out to be real and Hillary exits the race in late 2015 after the filing deadlines are closed. The Democratic field it capped at Sanders, O'Malley, Chafee, and Webb. Who wins?

I'm thinking establishment support quickly rallies around O'Malley, rather than the Socialist and the two Republicans who swapped out of political convenience?

ETA: For those of you saying Sanders, do you really think people who are supporting Hillary over him now will all of a sudden migrate to him? I suspect Sanders has hit Peak Support and Hillary's voters would chiefly migrate over to a non-Sanders candidate. I just don't see that candidate being Chafee, and it seems like O'Malley would attract more support than Webb.

[Kingpoleon]

Candidates:
Lincoln Chafee - 0.3%, April 29
Jim Webb - 14%, March 12; endorsed O'Malley, April 18
Bernie Sanders - 41%, May 3
Martin O'Malley - 44.6%
= 99.9%

270 - 268

Martin O'Malley(D-MD)/Gavin Newsom(D-CA) - 50.1%
Rand Paul(R-KY)/Brian Sandoval(R-NV) - 48.2%
Other: 1.6%

I think Webb would demand one of himself, Newsom, or Warner be on the ticket to guarantee his wing of the party. Newsom would be the most geographically different candidate.

[Yelnoc]

Yes, O'Malley becomes the establishment candidate. However, if Hillary exits the race over the holidays, O'Malley would only have two months to use the inevitable influx of money to build state infrastructures in the early primaries and national name recognition. He'd be playing catch-up, well behind Sanders. In this scenario, I could see Sanders sweeping the nomination. With O'Malley as the main alternative, Sanders's problem with black voters disappears. Anyone who thinks blacks will overwhelmingly support the former mayor of Baltimore is deluded.

[okierepublican]

Candidates:
Lincoln Chafee - 0.3%, April 29
Jim Webb - 14%, March 12; endorsed O'Malley, April 18
Bernie Sanders - 41%, May 3
Martin O'Malley - 44.6%
= 99.9%

270 - 268

Martin O'Malley(D-MD)/Gavin Newsom(D-CA) - 50.1%
Rand Paul(R-KY)/Brian Sandoval(R-NV) - 48.2%
Other: 1.6%

I think Webb would demand one of himself, Newsom, or Warner be on the ticket to guarantee his wing of the party. Newsom would be the most geographically different candidate.

Newsom would have a (very, very tiny) chance if he was still mayor, but a lt governor is not getting the vp bid.

[Lyin' Steve]

Democrats might lose Illinois is O'Malley is the nominee.  He's already been painted by the media as the most-hated white guy because of the Baltimore thing.

Even the blacks who aren't caught up in BLM.  The Republican candidate can just keep tying O'Malley to the Baltimore riots and talking about how disastrous his policies were for blacks.  It won't gain the GOP any votes but it might convince black voters to stay home.

[King]

If Hillary knows she'll have to drop, she'd let Biden and the DNC know in time I'd imagine.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Hillary knows she'll have to drop, she'd let Biden and the DNC know in time I'd imagine.

Ideally, yes, but let's say that doesn't become clear until say, Late November. Yeah, Biden could still run in Iowa and Nevada, as caucus states don't have filing deadlines, but he'd be shut out of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and some of the later states. So, you could end up with Biden having a drawn-out primary with Sanders or O'Malley, which is something the Democratic party leadership probably doesn't want*.

* Before you dismiss this idea as preposterous, remember that conventional wisdom throughout 2007 was that Hillary would wrap up the nomination around Super Tuesday (at the latest). Obama was never supposed to be the caliber of a primary opponent he ended up being. A Biden/O'Malley or Biden/Sanders primary has the same establishment favorite vs. non-prestigious outsider dynamic as the Hillary/Obama primary did.

[Kingpoleon]

Democrats might lose Illinois is O'Malley is the nominee.  He's already been painted by the media as the most-hated white guy because of the Baltimore thing.

Even the blacks who aren't caught up in BLM.  The Republican candidate can just keep tying O'Malley to the Baltimore riots and talking about how disastrous his policies were for blacks.  It won't gain the GOP any votes but it might convince black voters to stay home.

Need I remind you it's the liberal media which did this? I've read reports on O'Malley's time as Mayor. He was ruthlessly efficient, and most of the policies that led to the riots was due to his successors not being able to control it easily. They weren't as efficient.

Of course, FOX wouldn't have much fun with O'Malley's record. The "spend-and-tax liberal" title doesn't work very well. O'Malley would have to choose a game-changing partner - California's Castro, if you will, Gavin Newsom. Of course, Niki Tsongas could get independents and DeBlasio would rally the Democratic base. He has more options than Hillary to work with, in my opinion.

[H. Ross Peron]

This race would be oddly reminiscent of the Labour Party leadership contest.

[King]

Ideally, yes, but let's say that doesn't become clear until say, Late November.

Um, if Hillary committed a crime it should be clear to her right now because... you know... she did it.

If she didn't commit a crime, it doesn't matter if she gets indicted.

[Crumpets]

Bernie Sanders 58% (Clinches June 7th)
Martin O'Malley 27% (Drops out in late May)
Jim Webb 14% (Drops out June 7th)
Lincoln Chafee 1% (Drops out February 10th)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ideally, yes, but let's say that doesn't become clear until say, Late November.

Um, if Hillary committed a crime it should be clear to her right now because... you know... she did it.

If she didn't commit a crime, it doesn't matter if she gets indicted.

I'm thinking of a situation where Clinton continues to firmly think she did nothing wrong, but the DOJ says "uh, actually you did" around the time I referenced above.

[Pyro]

O'Malley would most definitely be the next-up establishment candidate but he hardly has the backing and has laid zero groundwork for a serious presidential charge. Chafee and Webb are no stronger in this regard.

Sanders may be hated by the moderates, but he has support and tons of it. Not to mention being able to rally the base. It might end up like 1972 all over again, or, if the banks have their way, 1968.

[7,052,770]

Bernie Sanders 58% (Clinches June 7th)
Martin O'Malley 27% (Drops out in late May)
Jim Webb 14% (Drops out June 7th)
Lincoln Chafee 1% (Drops out February 10th)

If O'Malley really is hated by blacks, he won't do well in the Deep South at all, where the Democratic Primary electorate is going to be majority black -- above 80% black in Mississippi.

I would expect Sanders to win in the South and O'Malley in other regions of the country that don't want an open Socialist.

[Crumpets]

Bernie Sanders 58% (Clinches June 7th)
Martin O'Malley 27% (Drops out in late May)
Jim Webb 14% (Drops out June 7th)
Lincoln Chafee 1% (Drops out February 10th)

If O'Malley really is hated by blacks, he won't do well in the Deep South at all, where the Democratic Primary electorate is going to be majority black -- above 80% black in Mississippi.

I would expect Sanders to win in the South and O'Malley in other regions of the country that don't want an open Socialist.

I don't know how much O'Malley is really "hated by blacks" outside of Baltimore. Of these four candidates, he's probably the most likely to try to pander to black voters, and might win a good chunk of them (see Cochran, 2014).

[°Leprechaun]

Well, I voted Sanders, but I am wondering if it there would be a possibility that it would finally be decided after the last primary (or at the Convention) with nobody getting a majority of all the delegates. Is that also a possibility with the Republicans (that no candidate gets a majority of all delegates)?