Why are white voters so Republican?
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  Why are white voters so Republican?
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tallguy23
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« on: August 18, 2015, 01:48:07 AM »

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2015, 12:22:25 PM »

The South does skew the percentage, but in many parts of the country, Democrats have lost a lot of  ground among white voters  without college degrees (particularly among older white voters and white men), and they haven't nearly offset that with relatively modest recent gains among white voters with degrees (i.e. there simply aren't enough liberal postgrads nationwide).
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2015, 12:28:28 PM »

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

The South skews it. Outside the South, most whites are Democratic.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2015, 12:46:08 PM »

Since Obama becoming presidential candidate Democrats lost a lot of white votes in the South, Appalachian region, and (somewhat less) in Prarie states. For example - among blue collar ethnics (who are frequently pro-gun,pro-life, anti-environment, but populist on economy), but not only among them. The last remnants of FDR-Truman-Kennedy-Johnson coalition are dying there, and these areas are not especially fond of woman right to choose, gay marriage and some other pet social projects, which represent a core of modern day Democratic party platform..
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2015, 01:11:56 PM »

There are places in the South that the Democrats win single digits worth of white voters,  all over the place in South actually.   

The South heavily skews it, as does Appalachia.    White populations in large cities usually lean Dem, and in the Northeast they're actually heavily Dem, Vermont being a good example.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2015, 03:13:08 PM »

I did the math, and it looks like Romney won white voters in the south as a whole with 71% or 72% to Obama's 27%. Even with that, the South only makes up about 30% of the nation's white votes, so whites outside the south are still Republican (probably about 54% Romney). They're Republican everywhere outside New England and the West coast. So yeah, the Democrats have a white problem. And its natural (if elections were to maintain competitive) that if Democrats get a big majority of the non white vote that is increasing in its share in the electorate, that they also lose support from white America.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2015, 03:47:17 PM »

I did the math, and it looks like Romney won white voters in the south as a whole with 71% or 72% to Obama's 27%. Even with that, the South only makes up about 30% of the nation's white votes, so whites outside the south are still Republican (probably about 54% Romney). They're Republican everywhere outside New England and the West coast. So yeah, the Democrats have a white problem. And its natural (if elections were to maintain competitive) that if Democrats get a big majority of the non white vote that is increasing in its share in the electorate, that they also lose support from white America.

I'm pretty sure at some point the Republicans will hit a ceiling with the white vote, since there is a significant segment of the white vote that will flat out never vote Republican,  mainly the white liberal types that support Sanders and people like that.   Also it's pretty normal that white people in large cities tend to lean Democrat, not just the northeast and the west coast.    Even the white population in the immediate Atlanta area voted for Obama I think, not sure about that.
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ingemann
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2015, 04:43:03 PM »

I did the math, and it looks like Romney won white voters in the south as a whole with 71% or 72% to Obama's 27%. Even with that, the South only makes up about 30% of the nation's white votes, so whites outside the south are still Republican (probably about 54% Romney). They're Republican everywhere outside New England and the West coast. So yeah, the Democrats have a white problem. And its natural (if elections were to maintain competitive) that if Democrats get a big majority of the non white vote that is increasing in its share in the electorate, that they also lose support from white America.

54% of the majority group outside one region, while they heavily carry minority votes, don't seem a problem to me. Yes it would be a problem if minorities was less loyal to the Democrats, but honestly the republicans don't really leave the minorities a real alternative.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2015, 04:48:09 PM »

I did the math, and it looks like Romney won white voters in the south as a whole with 71% or 72% to Obama's 27%. Even with that, the South only makes up about 30% of the nation's white votes, so whites outside the south are still Republican (probably about 54% Romney). They're Republican everywhere outside New England and the West coast. So yeah, the Democrats have a white problem. And its natural (if elections were to maintain competitive) that if Democrats get a big majority of the non white vote that is increasing in its share in the electorate, that they also lose support from white America.

I'm pretty sure at some point the Republicans will hit a ceiling with the white vote, since there is a significant segment of the white vote that will flat out never vote Republican,  mainly the white liberal types that support Sanders and people like that.   Also it's pretty normal that white people in large cities tend to lean Democrat, not just the northeast and the west coast.    Even the white population in the immediate Atlanta area voted for Obama I think, not sure about that.

You're right, I was broadly saying it on a state by state basis, but big cities in states where Romney won the white vote are definitely D leaning in most cases. White vote will hit a ceiling, but really how much more vote can Dems get out of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians? Obama pretty much maxed out with those groups, while the white vote can and has been up to 65% for Republicans. So while I think the Republican ethnic diversity problem is worse, Dems still have an issue with white voters, especially white working class voters, which should be MUCH more Democratic than they currently are.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2015, 05:11:53 PM »

I did the math, and it looks like Romney won white voters in the south as a whole with 71% or 72% to Obama's 27%. Even with that, the South only makes up about 30% of the nation's white votes, so whites outside the south are still Republican (probably about 54% Romney). They're Republican everywhere outside New England and the West coast. So yeah, the Democrats have a white problem. And its natural (if elections were to maintain competitive) that if Democrats get a big majority of the non white vote that is increasing in its share in the electorate, that they also lose support from white America.

I'm pretty sure at some point the Republicans will hit a ceiling with the white vote, since there is a significant segment of the white vote that will flat out never vote Republican,  mainly the white liberal types that support Sanders and people like that.   Also it's pretty normal that white people in large cities tend to lean Democrat, not just the northeast and the west coast.    Even the white population in the immediate Atlanta area voted for Obama I think, not sure about that.

You're right, I was broadly saying it on a state by state basis, but big cities in states where Romney won the white vote are definitely D leaning in most cases. White vote will hit a ceiling, but really how much more vote can Dems get out of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians? Obama pretty much maxed out with those groups, while the white vote can and has been up to 65% for Republicans. So while I think the Republican ethnic diversity problem is worse, Dems still have an issue with white voters, especially white working class voters, which should be MUCH more Democratic than they currently are.

Obama maxed out with African Americans.    Hispanics and Asians could well get into the 80-90% range if things get bad enough with Republican Ideology,   granted I don't think the Asian vote will matter much since it's so concentrated. 
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2015, 05:49:15 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2015, 05:52:25 PM by RG Griff »

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=210084.0

Obama won >40% of whites in statewide contests equaling 281 EVs in 2012.

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RR1997
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2015, 05:50:47 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2015, 06:00:20 PM by RR1997 »

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

The South skews it. Outside the South, most whites are Democratic.
Not in the Mountain West, but yes, overall, they slightly are.

No they're not. Romney won 54% of the white vote outside the south, and 72% in the south.

Here's a map of the white vote in 2012:



Whites are overwhelmingly Republican. Mitt Romney BARELY won the white vote in Minnesota and Obama barely won the white vote in New York.

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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2015, 08:38:29 PM »

Because the country killed unions and the cosmopolitan wing that dominates today's Democratic Party doesn't jive well with blue-collar whites.
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2015, 10:34:54 PM »

This topic makes me realize I live in a very nice place. Smiley

18+ 2010 Census
White 6729
Black 1913
Hispanic 1930
Asian 473
Native 201
Other 321

2010 election results
Obama 5658
McCain 524
Other 168
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2015, 10:20:49 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2015, 10:23:18 AM by The Trump Card (2016 Edition) »

Also, I like how a thread titled "Why are white voters so Republican"* gets 15 replies and yet the obvious isn't really mentioned at all...


*emphasis added.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2015, 03:43:58 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2015, 03:45:34 PM by NYMillennial »

Also, I like how a thread titled "Why are white voters so Republican"* gets 15 replies and yet the obvious isn't really mentioned at all...


*emphasis added.

What's the obvious?

And spare me the "Obama is black!!!" drivel.

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=210084.0

Obama won >40% of whites in statewide contests equaling 281 EVs in 2012.



Informative map. If you don't mind me asking, how'd you calculate the %'s?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2015, 03:48:59 PM »

Even outside the Northeast, there are certain white rural areas that are Democratic. For instance, the WI/IA border, the area around Tell City IN, or Elliott County KY, or maybe some counties southwest of St. Louis to an extent. I remember we had a thread about this a while ago, and I think someone (maybe it was me) said talk radio signals are very weak in those areas. These areas get radio from nearby cities, but the signals from the right-wing talk stations in the cities just don't happen to reach those areas.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2015, 03:54:59 PM »

Even outside the Northeast, there are certain white rural areas that are Democratic. For instance, the WI/IA border, the area around Tell City IN, or Elliott County KY, or maybe some counties southwest of St. Louis to an extent. I remember we had a thread about this a while ago, and I think someone (maybe it was me) said talk radio signals are very weak in those areas. These areas get radio from nearby cities, but the signals from the right-wing talk stations in the cities just don't happen to reach those areas.

For this same reason, there's actually some precincts in East Texas where Obama got a slim majority or >40% of the white vote. They happen to be in those slivers of land where Houston and Metroplex radio signals don't reach.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2015, 04:01:22 PM »

Even outside the Northeast, there are certain white rural areas that are Democratic. For instance, the WI/IA border, the area around Tell City IN, or Elliott County KY, or maybe some counties southwest of St. Louis to an extent. I remember we had a thread about this a while ago, and I think someone (maybe it was me) said talk radio signals are very weak in those areas. These areas get radio from nearby cities, but the signals from the right-wing talk stations in the cities just don't happen to reach those areas.

For this same reason, there's actually some precincts in East Texas where Obama got a slim majority or >40% of the white vote. They happen to be in those slivers of land where Houston and Metroplex radio signals don't reach.

Cable TV might be unavailable there too. I'm pretty sure there are some rural areas (even near where I live) where cable isn't available.

In my opinion, this is a case where people who don't listen to radio or TV are actually better informed than those who do!
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2015, 06:57:59 PM »

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

The South skews it. Outside the South, most whites are Democratic.
Not in the Mountain West, but yes, overall, they slightly are.

That's literally just not true ... Romney won Whites in every state but a few.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2015, 10:38:00 PM »

Here is a partial explanation, The Marriage Gap:



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http://www.vdare.com/articles/obama-fringe-vs-romney-core
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2015, 12:05:42 AM »

Also, I like how a thread titled "Why are white voters so Republican"* gets 15 replies and yet the obvious isn't really mentioned at all...


*emphasis added.

What's the obvious?

And spare me the "Obama is black!!!" drivel.

Does the South skew the percentage, or are whites pretty damn Republican?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=210084.0

Obama won >40% of whites in statewide contests equaling 281 EVs in 2012.



Informative map. If you don't mind me asking, how'd you calculate the %'s?

He is not only Black. He is a black urban liberal elitist))). That plays badly in many parts of the country...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2015, 12:55:30 AM »

This topic makes me realize I live in a very nice place. Smiley

18+ 2010 Census
White 6729
Black 1913
Hispanic 1930
Asian 473
Native 201
Other 321

2010 election results
Obama 5658
McCain 524
Other 168

I wouldn't like to live anywhere that white.
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BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2015, 12:58:31 AM »

This topic makes me realize I live in a very nice place. Smiley

18+ 2010 Census
White 6729
Black 1913
Hispanic 1930
Asian 473
Native 201
Other 321

2010 election results
Obama 5658
McCain 524
Other 168

I wouldn't like to live anywhere that white.

It's in Minnesota.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2015, 02:53:03 AM »

This topic makes me realize I live in a very nice place. Smiley

18+ 2010 Census
White 6729
Black 1913
Hispanic 1930
Asian 473
Native 201
Other 321

2010 election results
Obama 5658
McCain 524
Other 168

I wouldn't like to live anywhere that white.

Only about 58-59% white. Too much for you??? Well, that's smells of racism)))
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