CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads Bush/Fiorina/Trump/Walker by 6-10 points

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Aug. 13-16 (below I list the "Registered Voters" #s):

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf

Clinton 52%
Bush 43%

Clinton 53%
Fiorina 43%

Clinton 51%
Trump 45%

Clinton 52%
Walker 46%

[Phony Moderate]

Hillary's net -9 favorable rating matches her lowest ever (it was also 44-53 in March 2001). She also had a 24-point lead over Trump in late June.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary's net -9 favorable rating matches her lowest ever (it was also 44-53 in March 2001).

And that's among all adults.  Among registered voters, she's -12.

Fav/unfav among registered voters (also including data from the other half of the poll that was released yesterday):

Fiorina 29/20% for +9%
Sanders 36/29% for +7%
Biden 47/46% for +1%
Kasich 25/22% for +3%
Walker 25/32% for -7%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
Trump 38/58% for -20%
Bush 35/57% for -22%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Once again Jeb Bush proves he has no chance in a general. I'm buying this all day long.

[Torie]

Hillary's net -9 favorable rating matches her lowest ever (it was also 44-53 in March 2001).

And that's among all adults.  Among registered voters, she's -12.

Fav/unfav among registered voters (also including data from the other half of the poll that was released yesterday):

Fiorina 29/20% for +9%
Sanders 36/29% for +7%
Biden 47/46% for +1%
Kasich 25/22% for +3%
Walker 25/32% for -7%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
Trump 38/58% for -20%
Bush 35/57% for -22%

It is the bold number above, that gives me hope, that even if a majority of Pubs have totally lost their minds, that at the end of the day, when actually voting in the primary,  they will discern that Trump would get eviscerated in the General election, and move on to another choice. Putting aside party or ideology or anything else, Trump is one of those people who in power would be very dangerous, and a potential disaster for the nation. The population of this nation, and more importantly, the planet, are not all his employees whom he can hire and fire and bully at will.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Anyone else find it funny and Ironic that Trump is is closing the gap between himself and Clinton and the fact that Bush is now LESS popular than Trump?

[Eraserhead]

Looks like we might be getting President Trump after all. Did they poll Sanders in the general?

[Beezer]

Surging!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I kind of find this hilarious to be honest.

[Mehmentum]

I don't really have an explanation for the Trump surge.  Maybe Republicans are unifying under him?  But why?

[Mehmentum]

Also, the age gap is alive and well in this poll, which contradicts a Fox poll.

The 18-34 age group supports Clinton over Bush 62-33. 

[Eraserhead]

I don't really have an explanation for the Trump surge.  Maybe Republicans are unifying under him?  But why?

Because he's their best candidate.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Surprisingly good numbers for Walker and Trump. Still, the GOP can't get to 270 EV with numbers like that.

Once again Jeb Bush proves he has no chance in a general. I'm buying this all day long.

Which Republican HAS a chance in your opinion?  

Certainly not Jeb. Hillary will kill him on his name. I will yield that Kasich might have a chance, but he is not proven and won't be the nominee anyway. I'd give Rubio best shot at 60-40. I would've said Paul months ago, and perhaps still because he'd need to regain GOP favorability to get to the GE, but at the moment, no way barring dramatic events. Christie and Huck I'd give 25% chances vs. Hillary because EC disadvantages. Walker maybe 20% because he acts so stupid. I also think Graham or Jindal might be able to surprise people head to head against her. At least as good a shot as Walker.

So Rubio (60%), Kasich (generous coin flip) and Trump (40%) are top 3. Look at Dat trendline!! I hated Trump in June too. More great Americans will realize what they are missing soon enough.

EDIT: Polls that came out after this post indicate Carson would also be competitive, but I do not feel comfortable drawing conclusions on him just yet.

[madelka]

I don't really have an explanation for the Trump surge.  Maybe Republicans are unifying under him?  But why?

Because he's their best candidate.

You're either delusional or a very bad troll.

[ElectionsGuy]

This doesn't line up with her favor-ability numbers or other state polls.

[Eraserhead]

I don't really have an explanation for the Trump surge.  Maybe Republicans are unifying under him?  But why?

Because he's their best candidate.

You're either delusional or a very bad troll.

No, I'm just a realist.

[The Mikado]

Trump 38/58% for -20%
Bush 35/57% for -22%

It is the bold number above, that gives me hope, that even if a majority of Pubs have totally lost their minds, that at the end of the day, when actually voting in the primary,  they will discern that Trump would get eviscerated in the General election, and move on to another choice. Putting aside party or ideology or anything else, Trump is one of those people who in power would be very dangerous, and a potential disaster for the nation. The population of this nation, and more importantly, the planet, are not all his employees whom he can hire and fire and bully at will.

Um...Torie...you might want to compare Trump to Bush there. If Trump is "unelectable," what do you call Jeb?

[Torie]

Trump 38/58% for -20%
Bush 35/57% for -22%

It is the bold number above, that gives me hope, that even if a majority of Pubs have totally lost their minds, that at the end of the day, when actually voting in the primary,  they will discern that Trump would get eviscerated in the General election, and move on to another choice. Putting aside party or ideology or anything else, Trump is one of those people who in power would be very dangerous, and a potential disaster for the nation. The population of this nation, and more importantly, the planet, are not all his employees whom he can hire and fire and bully at will.

Um...Torie...you might want to compare Trump to Bush there. If Trump is "unelectable," what do you call Jeb?

He's rapidly moving into the same category, but unlike Trump, has some potential as POTUS to not send us all collectively over the metaphorical cliff. So my hope and prayer that the Pubs see the light by the time they vote is more intense with Trump. If it's Bush, we just get the third term of the Obama presidency, which is more akin to a chronic ailment, rather than life threatening. Anyway, to the extent it appears that Bush is unelectable, he has no chance of winning the nomination, unlike potentially Trump. So Bush is moot.

[EliteLX]

Hmm, I don't quite know what to take out of all this.

[Crumpets]

Hmm, I don't quite to know what to take out of all this.

Well, if EliteLX doesn't know what to take out of it, it must be good news for Hillary. Like when Rachel Maddow said she didn't know who won the first presidential debate in 2012.

[EliteLX]

Hmm, I don't quite to know what to take out of all this.

Well, if EliteLX doesn't know what to take out of it, it must be good news for Hillary. Like when Rachel Maddow said she didn't know who won the first presidential debate in 2012.

haha, oh absoloutely good numbers for the Hilldog with Jeb and what not. I'm absolutely blown away Jeb Numbers trail Trumps by more than 1%.. almost suspicious about that. I'm even more blown away Trump is becoming competitive.

I've almost got to laugh, this election might be weird.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Surprisingly good numbers for Walker and Trump. Still, the GOP can't get to 270 EV with numbers like that.

Once again Jeb Bush proves he has no chance in a general. I'm buying this all day long.

Which Republican HAS a chance in your opinion?  

John Kasich would defeat Hillary Clinton

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't buy the fact that Jeb has zero chance against Hilary. He is doing quite well in Fox. Clinton polls fell against working class whites, which means appalachia. Her path is the 272 route, with Latnos in CO, NV& Pa, no matter if it is Kasich or Jeb.