If Trump gets the nomination...
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Author Topic: If Trump gets the nomination...  (Read 2474 times)
madelka
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« on: August 19, 2015, 09:11:15 AM »
« edited: August 19, 2015, 09:12:48 AM by madelka »

...how many seats will the Democrats pick up (in the House and Senate) next year? Would Clinton have any coattails?
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Republican Michigander
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2015, 09:32:47 AM »

It would be a 2006 or 2008 style route as a lot of conservatives would be staying home.
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madelka
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2015, 02:21:36 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 02:24:03 PM by madelka »

*bump*

I'd say in such a scenario, Kirk (R-IL) and Johnson (R-WI) are toast and Ayotte (R-NH) and Toomey (R-PA) will probably lose as well. Bennet (D-CO) will cruise and Democrats will pick up the open seats in Florida and Nevada easily, maybe even Indiana or Louisiana.

Are there any Republican Senators running for reelection who would distance themselves from Trump?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2015, 02:24:53 PM »

It would be a 2006 or 2008 style route as a lot of conservatives would be staying home.

You guys said that when McCain won the nod, when Dole won the nod, when Romney won the nod. Wake me up when you guys do stay home.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2015, 02:47:13 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 02:48:49 PM by Holmes »

These would be on the table:

Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Indiana.

Arizona is not on the table though.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2015, 04:01:13 PM »

*bump*

I'd say in such a scenario, Kirk (R-IL) and Johnson (R-WI) are toast and Ayotte (R-NH) and Toomey (R-PA) will probably lose as well. Bennet (D-CO) will cruise and Democrats will pick up the open seats in Florida and Nevada easily, maybe even Indiana or Louisiana.

Are there any Republican Senators running for reelection who would distance themselves from Trump?

Not with Hillary on the ballot.  Democrats will be lucky to win anything at all in Colorado next year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2015, 07:46:17 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2015, 07:50:44 AM by OC »

AYOTTE, FL open, Kirk & Johnson will go to Dems while Dems maintain presidency.

I dont know about this Hillary cant win Colorado, she is going to pick Castro & go after CO, NV & Pa. Since Sandoval & Coffman declined. HILARY will win and break even in Senate.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2015, 10:38:01 AM »

*bump*

I'd say in such a scenario, Kirk (R-IL) and Johnson (R-WI) are toast and Ayotte (R-NH) and Toomey (R-PA) will probably lose as well. Bennet (D-CO) will cruise and Democrats will pick up the open seats in Florida and Nevada easily, maybe even Indiana or Louisiana.

Are there any Republican Senators running for reelection who would distance themselves from Trump?

Not with Hillary on the ballot.  Democrats will be lucky to win anything at all in Colorado next year.

This is really getting old. Remind me again how Obama lost Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, since he was a "bad fit" for those states. Hillary will do okay in Colorado. It'll probably go the same way as the popular vote, meaning that in a Democratic landslide, all Dems will cruise in that state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2015, 03:05:58 PM »

The GOP best recruits were Sandoval & Coffman and they declined the run. Now, Dems will win prez and Senate with 272 map, and winning FL or even OH, with a spare vote . Defeating Ayotte, Toomey, Kirk & Johnson
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2015, 05:45:49 PM »

*bump*

I'd say in such a scenario, Kirk (R-IL) and Johnson (R-WI) are toast and Ayotte (R-NH) and Toomey (R-PA) will probably lose as well. Bennet (D-CO) will cruise and Democrats will pick up the open seats in Florida and Nevada easily, maybe even Indiana or Louisiana.

Are there any Republican Senators running for reelection who would distance themselves from Trump?

Not with Hillary on the ballot.  Democrats will be lucky to win anything at all in Colorado next year.

This is really getting old. Remind me again how Obama lost Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, since he was a "bad fit" for those states. Hillary will do okay in Colorado. It'll probably go the same way as the popular vote, meaning that in a Democratic landslide, all Dems will cruise in that state.

No.  Hillary will do so badly in CO that Obama's results there in the last two elections will be retroactively downgraded to losses as well.  Her reverse coat tails will be just that long.
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2015, 08:24:28 PM »

These would be on the table:

Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Indiana.

Arizona is not on the table though.

Louisiana and not Arizona?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2015, 08:32:02 PM »

It would be a 2006 or 2008 style route as a lot of conservatives would be staying home.

You guys said that when McCain won the nod, when Dole won the nod, when Romney won the nod. Wake me up when you guys do stay home.

There's a difference between what the base did to Nixon in '60 in turnout, and what the establishment did to Goldwater in '64 in turnout.
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JMT
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2015, 09:39:40 PM »

These would be on the table:

Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Indiana.

Arizona is not on the table though.

Louisiana and not Arizona?

I was wondering the same thing. Only way Louisiana becomes competitive is if Mitch Landrieu runs. And I think he would only run if David Vitter were running for reelection, which he is not. A generic republican vs. generic democrat in Louisiana should be an easy victory for Republicans, but with Trump on the top of the ballot and Landrieu running, it could become competitive.
Arizona, with Trump as the nominee for president, could be competitive. Ann Kirkpatrick is a strong recruit, and McCain is pretty unpopular. This, along with Trump, could produce an upset that makes Kirkpatrick the next senator. Far from guaranteed, but possible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2015, 04:23:16 AM »

Latinos are underpolled in Colorado,  just as much blks are underpoll in MI.  Clinton isnt 10 behind in CO, more like 47-52 race.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2015, 11:04:40 AM »

*bump*

I'd say in such a scenario, Kirk (R-IL) and Johnson (R-WI) are toast and Ayotte (R-NH) and Toomey (R-PA) will probably lose as well. Bennet (D-CO) will cruise and Democrats will pick up the open seats in Florida and Nevada easily, maybe even Indiana or Louisiana.

Are there any Republican Senators running for reelection who would distance themselves from Trump?

Not with Hillary on the ballot.  Democrats will be lucky to win anything at all in Colorado next year.

This is really getting old. Remind me again how Obama lost Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, since he was a "bad fit" for those states. Hillary will do okay in Colorado. It'll probably go the same way as the popular vote, meaning that in a Democratic landslide, all Dems will cruise in that state.

No.  Hillary will do so badly in CO that Obama's results there in the last two elections will be retroactively downgraded to losses as well.  Her reverse coat tails will be just that long.

I realize that you're not serious, but come on. This gag has been going on long enough.
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